ATL: HARVEY - Models

[HurricaneBrain]

I've never seen so much consistency with both the GFS and Euro showing a reemergence into the Gulf and a persistent second landfall. It was hard to buy at first, but they have been showing this scenario for 3 straight days now...

[gatorcane]

[PTrackerLA]

Euro 968mb landfall pressure eastern Cameron Parish, LA 162 hours...

[Ivanhater]

Hits South Louisiana...SE Louisiana on the dirty side...very bad run

[Frank P]

H168 just west of Baton Rouge 980 BP

[tolakram]

I am so skeptical of the model doomday scenarios. First the inland strengthening, then the 2 landfalls. Hopefully it doesn't happen but regardless people better be prepared for a lot of flooding.

[tolakram]

[stormlover2013]

u know UKMET might be on to something!!

[hd44]

That's really decent 850 wind for a localized tornado event.

[TheStormExpert]

993 millibars @ 192hrs. over extreme NE Mississippi.

[OntarioEggplant]

I think we can all at LEAST find agreement between the Euro and GFS that Harvey will likely be a low end cat 1 making landfall between Baffin Bay and Port O'Connor Friday evening. Then it will head towards south central Texas and creep along.

Beyond that, it's a fruit basket.

[Tireman4]

u know UKMET might be on to something!!

I am just a historian, but I tend to agree

[Rgv20]

Crazy model runs by the GFS and ECMWF....Meanwhile the 12zNAVGEM with a track very similar to Beulah. For those that don't know Beulah devastated South Texas and NE Mexico with tremendous rainfall totals.

[cajungal]

:eek:

I live in Thibodaux 60 miles southwest of New Orleans. We would get pounded. I went get my water and can goods this morning.

[Steve]

Looks like a solid Cat 2 there on second landfall.

File this away for a week or two, but how will we in the future refer to Harvey if the European ends up being true? It's like a 3 pronged storm or more. It's in the Caribbean and weakens a bit. Intensifies off the Yucatan and hits maybe around South Texas. It comes back up the TX Coast and maybe hits it again or possibly SW Louisiana. It's like multiple storms rolled into one. I guess it's one of those asterisk storms for the future.

[tailgater]

:eek:

Can we please get a UNLIKE button or Stop this button, tthis can't happen. I hope

[tolakram]

[Steve]

ECMWF on a wider view and upon the exit of Harvey and Irene, pumps the ridge to its south. Not sure if there will be anything down that way in 8-10 days, but if so, it's coming west for a while.

[chaser1]

Reminds me of a land tracking version of Elena lol

[chaser1]

u know UKMET might be on to something!!

reference? link?