Texas Summer 2017

[weatherdude1108]

Per the NHC track, Austin and San Antonio would be on the dry side (west). Very disappointing. Hermine in 2010 was the last time we were on the "wet" side.

Our life story. That is disappointing. The RGV could use a good soaking from this as well.

[Portastorm]

Per the NHC track, Austin and San Antonio would be on the dry side (west). Very disappointing. Hermine in 2010 was the last time we were on the "wet" side.

Our life story. That is disappointing. The RGV could use a good soaking from this as well.

We need to be concerned for our friends in east and southeast Texas. They look to be under the gun.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12 z GFS pays a visit to Austin.

[weatherdude1108]

Per the NHC track, Austin and San Antonio would be on the dry side (west). Very disappointing. Hermine in 2010 was the last time we were on the "wet" side.

Our life story. That is disappointing. The RGV could use a good soaking from this as well.

We need to be concerned for our friends in east and southeast Texas. They look to be under the gun.

Yes, of course! My wife's mom, sister, aunt and uncle live in the Katy/Cypress area. If this thing gets out of hand, I will tell them they are more than welcome to evacuate to my place.

[weatherdude1108]

12 z GFS pays a visit to Austin.

I saw that! What a jump. This time, it looks like it's parked around San Antonio. These models are messing with my head.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I cant believe this run. Wednesday its just SW of Galveston. Houston cant take this.

[weatherdude1108]

That is a WIDESPREAD area of real estate covered in yellow, the highest QPF color on the chart.

[Brent]

Allison's max rainfall was 37 inches

GFS has 51 inches...



think I'm gonna be glad DFW Is sitting this one out

[starsfan65]

Allison's max rainfall was 37 inches

GFS has 51 inches...



think I'm gonna be glad DFW Is sitting this one out

We might get an inch out of this storm.

[newtotex]

This is probably going to be a stupid question. But, why do the models not have Harvey punching very far inland? From what I remember of Hermine and Ike they came pretty far inland. Is it just the time of year?

It's not a stupid question at all. Why? Because a developing area of higher pressure in the desert Southwest as well as high pressure to the northeast will basically put a lid on Harvey's north movement and force him to stall or drift east or south.

Ahh gotcha. I guess we will figure our here in the next 24-36 hours. It seems the models are shifting west again

[newtotex]

Allison's max rainfall was 37 inches

GFS has 51 inches...



think I'm gonna be glad DFW Is sitting this one out

That's just horrifying to think about. Houston floods if you flush the toilet more than once, I can only guess what that amount of rain would do

[Cpv17]

Allison's max rainfall was 37 inches

GFS has 51 inches...



think I'm gonna be glad DFW Is sitting this one out

That's just horrifying to think about. Houston floods if you flush the toilet more than once, I can only guess what that amount of rain would do

Yeah and I'm right in the middle of those brightest yellows in Wharton County an hour SW of Houston.

[South Texas Storms]

Per the NHC track, Austin and San Antonio would be on the dry side (west). Very disappointing. Hermine in 2010 was the last time we were on the "wet" side.

Our life story. That is disappointing. The RGV could use a good soaking from this as well.

Hold on guys! I was bummed after last night's 0z runs as well. But the 12z runs shifted west and now show SA and Austin getting some good rainfall. Let's not lose hope yet.

[Rgv20]

Per the NHC track, Austin and San Antonio would be on the dry side (west). Very disappointing. Hermine in 2010 was the last time we were on the "wet" side.

Our life story. That is disappointing. The RGV could use a good soaking from this as well.

Hold on guys! I was bummed after last night's 0z runs as well. But the 12z runs shifted west and now show SA and Austin getting some good rainfall. Let's not lose hope yet.

True the 12zGFS and ECMWF shifted west and has the RGV getting some rain but nothing compared to the biblical rainfall forecast for parts of SE Texas and SC Texas

[weatherdude1108]

Per the NHC track, Austin and San Antonio would be on the dry side (west). Very disappointing. Hermine in 2010 was the last time we were on the "wet" side.

Our life story. That is disappointing. The RGV could use a good soaking from this as well.

Hold on guys! I was bummed after last night's 0z runs as well. But the 12z runs shifted west and now show SA and Austin getting some good rainfall. Let's not lose hope yet.

It is showing about 3.5 inches at my house if I read it right. That's about what I got a couple weeks ago. In this run, I'm in the middle of the steep drop off in the rain amount demarcation lines from east to west/south to north.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I feel like im not an alarmist, but this is not good. Not at all. A 995-1000 MB low over SE Tx in August will cause slow moving storms with 3-5" rain rates and wreck so much havoc on the area. This is horrible.

I think we wont actually know what could even realistically happen till tomorrow night, but the consistency of these rainfall totals is scary.

[JDawg512]

This is why I don't put much stock in any one particular model since they can change in less than 12 hours. The trend is more our friend, or enemy depending on situation. Tropical Storm Watches are up across the coastal counties.

[Portastorm]

This is why I don't put much stock in any one particular model since they can change in less than 12 hours. The trend is more our friend, or enemy depending on situation. Tropical Storm Watches are up across the coastal counties.

Not just the coastal counties ... tropical storm watches are into the counties just to the east/south of Austin. A slight deviation west by Harvey and Travis County would under one. Geez, I can't remember the last time that happened.

[Portastorm]

I feel like im not an alarmist, but this is not good. Not at all. A 995-1000 MB low over SE Tx in August will cause slow moving storms with 3-5" rain rates and wreck so much havoc on the area. This is horrible.

I think we wont actually know what could even realistically happen till tomorrow night, but the consistency of these rainfall totals is scary.

You are not an alarmist. There is most certainly going to be a sizable area of the state which will receive excessive rainfall. Anyone living in the SE half of the state and who lives near an area which floods needs to be ready, prepared, and alert.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday 3:00 PM CDT briefing from Jeff:

Rainfall:

Widespread rainfall 10-15 inches across the entire region from the TX coast bend ENE to W/SW Louisiana. Isolated totals could exceed 20 inches or even higher.

Rainfall of this magnitude will result in widespread potentially devastating flooding of rivers, creeks, and bayous as well as flash flooding on short time scales where local rainfall rates may exceed 2-4 inches per hour. The entire region is at risk for these rainfall totals, but where maximum totals occur cannot be determined until the event is underway.

Rain bands will begin to approach the lower TX coast late Thursday and the coastal bend on Friday, spreading into SE TX (around Matagorda Bay Friday afternoon) and into much of SE TX Friday night. The system will linger over the region through the entire weekend and into the early portion of next week.

Storm Surge/Tides:

(the numbers listed below are total water levels)

San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Bay:
3-5 ft (2-4 feet above the lowest natural ground)
Possible tidal flooding around Clear Lake, Seabrook, Kemah, Shoreacres, lower San Jacinto River, Bolivar Peninsula, west end of Galveston Island

San Luis Pass to Port O Connor:

4-6 ft (3-4 feet above the lowest natural ground)
Overwash likely along the Brazoria and Matagorda County coast including Matagorda Island.
Minor coastal flooding along the western side of Matagorda and Lavaca Bays including the lower portions of (Port Lavaca, Indianola, Port O Connor)



Port O Connor southward:

Maximum coastal flooding/storm surge will in the area near and just west of Matagorda Bay across SW Calhoun and Aransas Counties possibly into San Patricio County. Coastal water levels in this area may reach 4-6 feet above MSL and 3-4 feet above ground level. Some slightly higher levels may be found at the heads inland bays and inlet.

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will begin along the lower and middle TX coast early Friday morning just prior to sunrise. Tropical storm conditions will begin to arrive into the Matagorda Bay region around 800-900am and spread into most of coastal SE TX by 800pm Friday. Hurricane force conditions will approach the middle TX coast Friday late afternoon from Port Aransas to Matagorda Bay and inland across Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Victoria, Aransas, Refugio, and San Patricio Counties Friday night.

San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Bay (Galveston, Harris, Chambers, Fort Bend, Austin, Waller, Wharton Colorado: tropical storm force winds of at least 40mph will be possible by late Friday. Winds could gust up to 50-60mph across inland Wharton and Colorado Counties Friday night into Saturday.

San Luis Pass to Port O Connor: Sustained winds of 60-70mph Friday night with near hurricane conditions (especially Matagorda Bay area)

Port O Connor to Port Aransas: Sustained winds 65-75mph Friday night with higher gust

Actions:
Preparations to protect life and property should be underway in the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch areas

Strong emphasis must be placed on the potential for widespread flooding rainfall and those impacts

Prepare for sporadic power outages due to both wind and flooding (wind especially around Matagorda Bay)

The next two days is the time to prepare for prolonged impacts from Harvey.