ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

not sure this ever went stationary.Looks to be moving NW on the goes 16 visible

That's interesting since the Euro was stalling it around this time frame.

I think the quicker this system moves, the more inland it will track into Texas before it begins to track southeast towards the Gulf again.

That's certainly plausible as even some EPS members keep it over Texas until next week Tuesday.

[Dave C]

Good catch, convection more on the periphery but trying to wrap around north side to west side. Let's hope this takes longer to get going although rain would still be biggest problem.

[Steve]

not sure this ever went stationary.Looks to be moving NW on the goes 16 visible

That's interesting since the Euro was stalling it around this time frame.

Go to the following link.. put 200 frames and speed it up.. you can see the NW movement

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-96-1

I kind of see it, but it's really not that much movement just the same. Seems like the west side was filling in with some banding and convection and maybe the "circulation" moved a hair NW in those 200 frames. But some of the models have had it looping or just pulsing down there for a day or so before taking off while others were more direct with the motion. It's kind of still off the NW Tip of the Yucatan by maybe 100 miles. Definite movement but not definitive.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The location and the sprawling messiness reminds me a lot of Opal, although the comparisons pretty much end there.[/quote]

With Opal...dont forget that everyone went to bed looking at a messy TD and woke up to a Cat3 Hurricane...

[SouthDadeFish]

Is Harvey getting ahead north of the convection?

The location and the sprawling messiness reminds me a lot of Opal, although the comparisons pretty much end there.

With Opal...dont forget that everyone went to bed looking at a messy TD and woke up to a Cat3 Hurricane...

Huh? That's not true. It took Opal over 48 hours to go from a TD to a category-one hurricane. Anyway, back on subject, yes Harvey has the potential to RI. But that potential does seem to be greatest until later in the forecast period, unfortunately right before landfall.

[ROCK]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2017 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 21:45:43 N Lon : 92:43:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1001.6mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.4 2.4

Tropical storm-force winds now. Pressure's down some too. I wonder if it will be upgraded at 5.

Raw T 2.4..I would say upgrade it...no sense in waiting around...We all know its name..lol

[Aric Dunn]

Wow nice long band trying to fill in and wrap around. looking alot better this afternoon. next recon will likely find a TS.

definitely stalled for a few hours as it reorganized .

[CrazyC83]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/900423061836447744

TX got really lucky with Bret, weakening from cat 4 and hitting rural country. Hopefully history will repeat itself.

Even if Bret hit as a cat 4 (or 5), it wouldn't have been very serious as it hit in no man's land. Although this has to really slow down and spend time over water to get to such intensities.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/900452235821363201

[ScottNAtlanta]

The location and the sprawling messiness reminds me a lot of Opal, although the comparisons pretty much end there.

With Opal...dont forget that everyone went to bed looking at a messy TD and woke up to a Cat3 Hurricane...

Huh? That's not true. It took Opal over 48 hours to go from a TD to a category-one hurricane. Anyway, back on subject, yes Harvey has the potential to RI. But that potential does seem to be greatest until later in the forecast period, unfortunately right before landfall.

You are correct...not enough sleep here. Went to bed with an organizing cat one woke up to 150mph...I knew there was RI somewhere

[Sciencerocks]

Three observations
1. Circulation is huge at least 10 degrees north, south, east and wind. Lots of energy!
2. ULL to the northwest for once this season is setting up a nice poleward outflow channel without providing a huge amount of shear on the core of the cyclone. Of course, outflow maybe a little "weak" on the western quad out 5 degrees from the center so it isn't perfect.
3. Convection forming over the LLC and attempting to form a "Cdo" like feature the past few hours.

I'll predict 55 knots by this time tomorrow and hurricane within the next 36 hours. Possibility of major hurricane is probably higher then avg within the next 72 hours.

[NDG]

It looks to me that it is just meandering around if not stalled, I do not see a NW movement. Recon flight this evening should give us an idea.

[Sciencerocks]

It looks to me that it is just meandering around if not stalled, I do not see a NW movement. Recon flight this evening should give us an idea.

Looks to be a slow drift to the north-northwest....

I'll say recon finds a 35-40 knot tropical storm.

[ROCK]

It looks to me that it is just meandering around if not stalled, I do not see a NW movement. Recon flight this evening should give us an idea.

yep steering really has collapsed attm....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS FOR THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[GCANE]

Tower is still spewing and cirrus around it is thinning.
That is a rapid core heat up.

[ROCK]

would like RECON to get in there...think it would find TS...but not my call...1005MB TD it is.....best TD presentation I have seen in a long time

[J_J99]

Moreover, ocean analyses show that a warm eddy that broke off from
the Loop Current has drifted westward across the Gulf to a location
near the projected path of Harvey. This would also be conducive to
strengthening, so it is likely that the system will become a
hurricane prior to landfall, although this is not explicitly shown
in the NHC forecast for which landfall is indicated between 48 and
72 hours.

From the NHC Discussion..... quite concerning in my view.

[ronyan]

Someone said they thought the center was outrunning convection so that's likely what they saw.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Um this thing is really taking off now. Day time heating convection (or whatever you call it) will appear soon. Could this aid the storm even further?