ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2121 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:30 pm

18z models ... heh, looks like something I might have drawn with crayons when I was 4 years old!

#2122 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:30 pm

18z GFS coming in a bit slower:

#2123 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:31 pm

18z GFS hour 24; now moving faster:

#2124 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:33 pm

looks stronger on this GFS run out through 30 hours.

#2125 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:34 pm

18z GFS a bit stronger through hour 30:

#2126 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:35 pm

18z GFS hour 36:

#2127 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:36 pm

18z GFS coming in slightly stronger and south through 36 hours.

davidiowx · #2128 Postby **davidiowx** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:36 pm

Looks like a pretty nice shift west at hour 42

Hurricaneman · #2129 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:37 pm

Portastorm wrote:18z models ... heh, looks like something I might have drawn with crayons when I was 4 years old!

That there shows what could be a top 3 flood for a tropical system in the US, that would be much worse than Allison

#2130 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:37 pm

18z GFS is more south through hour 42:

#2131 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:38 pm

davidiowx wrote:Looks like a pretty nice shift west at hour 42

Yep it's showing stronger ridging across the northern Gulf this run.

#2132 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:40 pm

18z GFS hour 48, down to near hurricane strength:

#2133 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:41 pm

18z GFS hours 24-48:

davidiowx · #2134 Postby **davidiowx** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:42 pm

Wow much stronger at hour 54. Down to 979mb!

#2135 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:42 pm

18z GFS hour 54, bombing out:

TexWx · #2136 Postby **TexWx** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:43 pm

That last GFS run, is that where Bret went in?

#2137 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:43 pm

18z GFS landfall hour 60:

#2138 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:44 pm

18z GFS is stronger and further south:

#2139 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:45 pm

TexWx wrote:That last GFS run, is that where Bret went in?

Looks just north of there.

#2140 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:46 pm

18z GFS RI all the way through landfall: