ATL: HARVEY - Models

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ronyan
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2141 Postby ronyan » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:48 pm

Corpus Christi looks to be in the eyewall that run.
Last edited by ronyan on Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2142 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:48 pm

18z GFS hour 72 moving west:
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2143 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:49 pm

ronyan wrote:Corpus Christi looks to be in the eyewall that run.


Exactly what I was thinking...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2144 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:50 pm

18z GFS, slowly tracking west into Texas.

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2145 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:50 pm

No trough till after landfall, but this is August not October..
Bad news for Texas, but maybe less wind and surge threat further east along the northern gulf coastline.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2146 Postby TexWx » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:52 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
TexWx wrote:That last GFS run, is that where Bret went in?


Looks just north of there.


We should wish for that again then.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2147 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:52 pm

I have to put more weight on the EURO than the GFS so I will call this a suspect run....all about timing. IMO

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS, slowly tracking west into Texas.

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2148 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:52 pm

Interesting shift at 18z...closer to the 12z HWRF and HMNON.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2149 Postby hd44 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:54 pm

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Bret_1999_track.png

Thinking this landfalls 20 to 30 miles east of Bret ... gfs/hwrf coming into better agreement.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2150 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:55 pm

Wouldn't shock me if Harvey shifts S of the border... HP on 18z GFS looks stronger... JMHO
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2151 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:56 pm

18z GFS through hour 84-96:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2152 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:00 pm

18z GFS pretty much flooding southern Texas:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2153 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:01 pm

this may emerge back offshore quite far to the south.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2154 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:01 pm

Blown Away wrote:Wouldn't shock me if Harvey shifts S of the border... HP on 18z GFS looks stronger... JMHO

Well I'm thinking anywhere between South Padre and Matagorda Bay so yeah maybe slightly south but I don't know about that yet
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2155 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:05 pm

Alyono wrote:this may emerge back offshore quite far to the south.


It's just sitting on the Mexico/Texas border.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2156 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:this may emerge back offshore quite far to the south.


It's just sitting on the Mexico/Texas border.


Looks like it may just wash out over land.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2157 Postby davidiowx » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:07 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:this may emerge back offshore quite far to the south.


It's just sitting on the Mexico/Texas border.


Looks like it may just wash out over land.


Certainly looks that way this run.. Tonight's runs will be interesting once all the data is in there.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2158 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:07 pm

18z GFS 114-126:


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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2159 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:08 pm

18z GFS moving slowly hour 138:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2160 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:12 pm

18z GFS still alive; moving back east towards the coast:

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