ATL: HARVEY - Models

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jasons2k
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2161 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:14 pm

This is a bit nuts, so close to landfall. I don't think today's models can be trusted; they are all over the place. Will wait for the 0z models tonight. They should have all of today's recon data in there.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2162 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS still alive; moving back east towards the coast:



Do the 18Z runs take into them the latest 1pm (CST) recon data?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2163 Postby BRweather » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:17 pm

Okay. This run of the GFS is just silly.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2164 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:18 pm

If it emerges that far south and can regenerate this will be a stronger storm for the second landfall. Very difficult forecast.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2165 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:18 pm

2.5 days and it barely moves:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2166 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:19 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2167 Postby msp » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:19 pm

18z gfs doing to corpus what 12z gfs did to houston
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2168 Postby sphelps8681 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:20 pm

Just saw weather channel forecast they said when you have a spidering of the models just like the lastest GFS means there is a collapse in the steering currents. Maybe that is what is wrong with the latest GFS. Did not look right to me. But what do I know. Any thoughts.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2169 Postby Nederlander » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:20 pm

GFS might be overdoing the ridging. Hopefully models can come to a better consensus tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2170 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:20 pm

This is just ugly:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2171 Postby msp » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:21 pm

aaaaaaand at 180hr...back over the gulf and slowly heading northeast
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2172 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:22 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2173 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:22 pm

GFS 18z hour 180 back over water:

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2174 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:25 pm

Definitely getting into la-la-land now talking about 180 hour model forecasts. :lol: Nonetheless, seems pretty certain at this point someone is going to get A LOT OF RAIN.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2175 Postby Frank P » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:26 pm

Today's model runs have been just NUTS :double:
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2176 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:26 pm

We're like 48 hours away from landfall and no one knows what's going to happen.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2177 Postby BRweather » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:28 pm

Anyone have access to Weatherbell or another outlet? Just curious what the maximum rainfall total GFS just spit out on this run. Has to be something absurd like 60 inches. I remember yesterday it was 50 on one run.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2178 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:33 pm

I'm not sure what to look at. The maps cap at 20 inches for a large area.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2179 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:34 pm

Might have to change the name of Houston to Houswim!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2180 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:35 pm

tolakram wrote:I'm not sure what to look at. The maps cap at 20 inches for a large area.


Try Pivotal Weather. Their map caps at 15” but shows text, several 40+ inch areas.
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