ATL: HARVEY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2161 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:14 pm

This is a bit nuts, so close to landfall. I don't think today's models can be trusted; they are all over the place. Will wait for the 0z models tonight. They should have all of today's recon data in there.
2 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2162 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS still alive; moving back east towards the coast:



Do the 18Z runs take into them the latest 1pm (CST) recon data?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

BRweather
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 331
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:50 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2163 Postby BRweather » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:17 pm

Okay. This run of the GFS is just silly.
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2164 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:18 pm

If it emerges that far south and can regenerate this will be a stronger storm for the second landfall. Very difficult forecast.
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2165 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:18 pm

2.5 days and it barely moves:

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2166 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:19 pm

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
msp
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 59
Joined: Thu May 13, 2010 4:58 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2167 Postby msp » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:19 pm

18z gfs doing to corpus what 12z gfs did to houston
1 likes   

sphelps8681
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 785
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2168 Postby sphelps8681 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:20 pm

Just saw weather channel forecast they said when you have a spidering of the models just like the lastest GFS means there is a collapse in the steering currents. Maybe that is what is wrong with the latest GFS. Did not look right to me. But what do I know. Any thoughts.
1 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1250
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2169 Postby Nederlander » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:20 pm

GFS might be overdoing the ridging. Hopefully models can come to a better consensus tomorrow.
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2170 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:20 pm

This is just ugly:

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
msp
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 59
Joined: Thu May 13, 2010 4:58 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2171 Postby msp » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:21 pm

aaaaaaand at 180hr...back over the gulf and slowly heading northeast
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2172 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:22 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2173 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:22 pm

GFS 18z hour 180 back over water:

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2174 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:25 pm

Definitely getting into la-la-land now talking about 180 hour model forecasts. :lol: Nonetheless, seems pretty certain at this point someone is going to get A LOT OF RAIN.
5 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2175 Postby Frank P » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:26 pm

Today's model runs have been just NUTS :double:
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2176 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:26 pm

We're like 48 hours away from landfall and no one knows what's going to happen.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

BRweather
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 331
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:50 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2177 Postby BRweather » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:28 pm

Anyone have access to Weatherbell or another outlet? Just curious what the maximum rainfall total GFS just spit out on this run. Has to be something absurd like 60 inches. I remember yesterday it was 50 on one run.
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2178 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:33 pm

I'm not sure what to look at. The maps cap at 20 inches for a large area.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2179 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:34 pm

Might have to change the name of Houston to Houswim!
1 likes   

txwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1498
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2180 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:35 pm

tolakram wrote:I'm not sure what to look at. The maps cap at 20 inches for a large area.


Try Pivotal Weather. Their map caps at 15” but shows text, several 40+ inch areas.
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests