ATL: HARVEY - Models

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not sure what to look at. The maps cap at 20 inches for a large area.

Zoom in to the state view (Texas) or city view (Austin or Houston). Then it lists the model forecast rainfall totals at airports in the region.

[Ivanhater]

Harvey skirting along the northern gulf coast now...Geez..who the heck knows where this will go

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone have access to Weatherbell or another outlet? Just curious what the maximum rainfall total GFS just spit out on this run. Has to be something absurd like 60 inches. I remember yesterday it was 50 on one run.

Out 216hrs Houston area around 40"

[SoupBone]

Harvey skirting along the northern gulf coast now...Geez..who the heck knows where this will go

We've all been here for a long time on this board, can anyone recall seeing such a complicated setup like this, especially with the technology we have? I can't recall if so.

[tolakram]

GFS is stronger this run because the 500mb vorticity gets going much more quickly than the last run.

[tolakram]

I'm not sure what to look at. The maps cap at 20 inches for a large area.

Zoom in to the state view (Texas) or city view (Austin or Houston). Then it lists the model forecast rainfall totals at airports in the region.

Houston > 20, the numbers on the charts run together but it's A LOT. Still looking.

[South Texas Storms]

18z HMON shows Harvey getting down to 957mb at landfall near South Padre Island, which is stronger and south of the 12z run.

[tolakram]

KLVJ = 26
KHOU = 28.9

[msp]

HMON shifts south, creams South Padre at 957mb

HWRF shifts east, stronger thru 39hr

[Cpv17]

Too soon to say, but Houston may be dodging a bullet with these trends south today.

[SoupBone]

Too soon to say, but Houston may be dodging a bullet with these trends south today.

Still significant rain event for a city that last year flooded in several spots.

[mcheer23]

18z HWRF is going to come in a bit further north and stronger.

[BigB0882]

Too soon to say, but Houston may be dodging a bullet with these trends south today.

Much too soon to say, especially since the south models may still bring this back to the Gulf and right at Houston after that.

[Cpv17]

Too soon to say, but Houston may be dodging a bullet with these trends south today.

Much too soon to say, especially since the south models may still bring this back to the Gulf and right at Houston after that.

Yeah. Way too many variables in play here. Models seem clueless to me.

[jasons2k]

Too soon to say, but Houston may be dodging a bullet with these trends south today.

Much too soon to say, especially since the south models may still bring this back to the Gulf and right at Houston after that.

Yes, and that far out, that's over a week away too. There is a lot of uncertainty for sure.

[weunice]

I found 51" on Pivotalweather. If you zoom into the region it shows some of the totals on the map. Moving around you get a lot of high 40's in south Texas and a lot of 20-30" around Houston. Last year I watched 90% of my town flood and there are tens of thousands still recovering from the 20-30" of rain we got. It was a $10 billion weather disaster on rain alone. I do not wish this solution on anyone.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NAVGEM much stronger and near or slightly south of the 12z run...makes landfall near Baffin Bay.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If you look at the 500 MB chart, you can see where the storm hooks left due to a stronger ridge to the east. That seems to be the biggest change. It hasnt forecasted a HP this strong yet so lets see.

[Alyono]

Too soon to say, but Houston may be dodging a bullet with these trends south today.

uh no. still has massive flooding

[Roxy]

Too soon to say, but Houston may be dodging a bullet with these trends south today.

Still significant rain event for a city that last year flooded in several spots.

We will know for sure tomorrow morning, I hope!