ATL: HARVEY - Models

[msp]

NAMs all shifted west. Landfall just south of corpus now Still waiting on 3km to finish rolling out

Looks more in line with the 18z GFS now.

Yep

Movement slows significantly once near Corpus

[Rgv20]

NAMs all shifted west. Landfall just south of corpus now Still waiting on 3km to finish rolling out

0zNAM 3k has Harvey due east of Brownsville by around midday Friday.......

[NDG]

NDG, you can't cherry pick. CMC had it from almost Day 1 with a little bit of a break when it took 92L into the Gulf. But GFS and Euro were the true garbage. Once in a while a run might show a system or give a hint. But If you say, "For the last couple of days" or whatever, that's kind of ignoring the point. I'm not looking to defend the CMC but still have way too much. But if it was up to the Euro or GFS, two little bumps in the isobars passed by sometime earlier this week. No, I don't think so. And that was run after run after run after run after run. Oh there's a storm. But then no there isn't.

Again, how can you guys say that the CMC has had it right all along when just 3 days ago it was showing Harvey to make landfall tomorrow night near Tampico in its 96 hr forecast, if it is one model that has been all over is the CMC, not saying that the GFS and Euro have been the best in their mid to long range forecast this year but they were the only two models that were right in forecasting Harvey in opening up into a wave after passing the Windward Islands while the CMC was forecasting it to maintain a TS status.

[South Texas Storms]

0z RGEM is showing Harvey making landfall as a 975mb hurricane near South Padre Island. For those who don't know, the RGEM model is the higher resolution version of the Canadian model. I'm thinking the 0z Canadian global model will show a similar solution.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017082400&fh=48

[ROCK]

We can pick apart every model to a point in the short range all day.. trend is left but again we are a few days out ...then we have the retrograde back into the GOM for a 2nd landfall..that scenario is plausible. We all need to take a deep breath and stop model watching. Look at real time current situation. Been on here 14yrs..every season we model war 72 hrs out..geez ..I need a Xanax

[PTrackerLA]

00z GFS already 985mb at 24hrs, whoa

[Alyono]

GFS has a cane by tomorrow evening

[Rgv20]

0zGFS not wasting anytime....has Harvey down to 991mb by midday tomorrow...

[caneman]

We can pick apart every model to a point in the short range all day.. trend is left but again we are a few days out ...then we have the retrograde back into the GOM for a 2nd landfall..that scenario is plausible. We all need to take a deep breath and stop model watching. Look at real time current situation. Been on here 14yrs..every season we model war 72 hrs out..geez ..I need a Xanax

I agree let's stick to accuracy and facts. This years model accuracy has left much to be desired. If it swings back left this close, it will only highlight the point. I usually go with the blend but given model performance thats been all over the board too. Does anyone else think modelling has been way off this,year? If so, why?

[caneman]

GFS has a cane by tomorrow evening

Heading???

[Steve]

NDG, you can't cherry pick. CMC had it from almost Day 1 with a little bit of a break when it took 92L into the Gulf. But GFS and Euro were the true garbage. Once in a while a run might show a system or give a hint. But If you say, "For the last couple of days" or whatever, that's kind of ignoring the point. I'm not looking to defend the CMC but still have way too much. But if it was up to the Euro or GFS, two little bumps in the isobars passed by sometime earlier this week. No, I don't think so. And that was run after run after run after run after run. Oh there's a storm. But then no there isn't.

Again, how can you guys say that the CMC has had it right all along when just 3 days ago it was showing Harvey to make landfall tomorrow night near Tampico in its 96 hr forecast, if it is one model that has been all over is the CMC, not saying that the GFS and Euro have been the best in their mid to long range forecast this year but they were the only two models that were right in forecasting Harvey in opening up into a wave after passing the Windward Islands while the CMC was forecasting it to maintain a TS status.

Nobody said that it had it right all along. You said it was "garbage." Many of the Euro and GFS runs never developed it to begin with. They showed humps or waves in the isobar patterns. That's all. You're a top poster, so it's not some fight argument. CMC is entertainment. It developed 91L, 92L and 93L in the Atlantic, but 93L got eaten by a ULL and 92L remains to be seen. With 91L/Harvey, it recognized earlier and stayed with it longer. Whether that was blind luck or if it had a generally better idea of the flow, we'll see.

[jasons2k]

interesting how it moves NNW then moves more WNW around 24-36 hours (it hooks left a bit starting tomorrow night).

[Bonesinis]

976 Pressure at 30 hrs. West heading

[Ntxw]

GFS has a cane by tomorrow evening

Heading???

NW towards deep south Texas. Brownsville/South Padre

[Bonesinis]

970 pressure at 36hrs near Tx/Mx border

[Alyono]

cat 3 heading to Corpus

[Ntxw]

[caneman]

NDG, you can't cherry pick. CMC had it from almost Day 1 with a little bit of a break when it took 92L into the Gulf. But GFS and Euro were the true garbage. Once in a while a run might show a system or give a hint. But If you say, "For the last couple of days" or whatever, that's kind of ignoring the point. I'm not looking to defend the CMC but still have way too much. But if it was up to the Euro or GFS, two little bumps in the isobars passed by sometime earlier this week. No, I don't think so. And that was run after run after run after run after run. Oh there's a storm. But then no there isn't.

Again, how can you guys say that the CMC has had it right all along when just 3 days ago it was showing Harvey to make landfall tomorrow night near Tampico in its 96 hr forecast, if it is one model that has been all over is the CMC, not saying that the GFS and Euro have been the best in their mid to long range forecast this year but they were the only two models that were right in forecasting Harvey in opening up into a wave after passing the Windward Islands while the CMC was forecasting it to maintain a TS status.

I never claimed CMC to be right. I only said that you can't claim a models accuracy when all jad wild swings and there may yet be another. Lets wait for a landfall and verification.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS @42hrs

[South Texas Storms]

cat 3 heading to Corpus

Almost the exact same position as the 18z run at 48 hours, just 24 mb lower. 954 mb.