ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Sciencerocks]

Looking at the trend over the past decade in this part of the gulf would favor a more westward track as more often then not the high is stronger.

Because the "convection" is north of the cyclone from the trough doesn't mean a high won't build.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET plots:



https://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=599e562b126cb7.22351833

[NDG]

Where does ukmet show ?

UKMET shows landfall just north of Corpus Christi.

[hd44]

0z UKMET shifts west.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 92.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2017 0 22.0N 92.5W 1003 27
1200UTC 24.08.2017 12 23.2N 92.4W 999 36
0000UTC 25.08.2017 24 24.3N 93.8W 992 39
1200UTC 25.08.2017 36 25.6N 95.1W 984 50
0000UTC 26.08.2017 48 27.0N 96.1W 974 62
1200UTC 26.08.2017 60 28.1N 96.6W 969 69
0000UTC 27.08.2017 72 28.8N 97.2W 970 54
1200UTC 27.08.2017 84 29.1N 97.4W 977 47
0000UTC 28.08.2017 96 29.1N 97.7W 984 39
1200UTC 28.08.2017 108 28.9N 97.5W 985 45
0000UTC 29.08.2017 120 29.0N 97.2W 984 39
1200UTC 29.08.2017 132 29.2N 97.5W 990 33
0000UTC 30.08.2017 144 29.1N 97.3W 996 30

That's sitll east of Corpus Christi.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Latest GFS and HMON generally in the same area HWRF looks same as well so agreement is there for devastation near the southern Texas coast from South padre to North Padre

[utweather]

Uh, this is far from over pal..

No, but Thetxhurricanemaster was made to look like his thoughts were outrageous, yet the NHC was more inline with his then the talk of NE TX SW LA which many posts jumped on and hyped up. I don't post much but wanted to give some credit out.

Haha. No. Are you him or a plant? The South TX scenario was a legit track all along. He just roided the opinion up too much.

I'm just trying to get accurate information. I know some of the pro-mets have paying clients. I don't have the funds for that kind of access so when a non-met gets something right we shouldn't try to chase him off. Looking at his other posts now, I see that he has kept posting.. so that is good. Carry on..

[Alyono]

while the global models indicate a stronger hurricane than 18Z, the HWRF and HMON are significantly weaker with the 0Z runs

[Blinhart]

We are all talking about Mother Nature, there is no way anyone will be 100% correct about anything in weather even 12 hours in advance. So saying that this will go here or there is ridiculous and saying that everyone else is wrong is just ridiculous.

Now with saying that, knowing how systems in the GoM usually works, this system might head NW for a while but for some strange reason before making landfall into South Texas, expect to see this system move either North and stay North or turn even Northeast. For some strange reason storms always seem to move to the East a little before landfall.

[msp]

while the global models indicate a stronger hurricane than 18Z, the HWRF and HMON are significantly weaker with the 0Z runs

Yeah. HMON also coming in a bit farther east/north. HWRF track appears similar to 18z--edit: maybe a bit south

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

while the global models indicate a stronger hurricane than 18Z, the HWRF and HMON are significantly weaker with the 0Z runs

Yeah but still show bigger impacts than the NHC is showing next update will probably be higher on track intensity IMO

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

We are all talking about Mother Nature, there is no way anyone will be 100% correct about anything in weather even 12 hours in advance. So saying that this will go here or there is ridiculous and saying that everyone else is wrong is just ridiculous.

Now with saying that, knowing how systems in the GoM usually works, this system might head NW for a while but for some strange reason before making landfall into South Texas, expect to see this system move either North and stay North or turn even Northeast. For some strange reason storms always seem to move to the East a little before landfall.

Yeah because the curve of the coastline ... you are correct

[wxman22]

0z GFS shows some crazy rainfall totals....

[Rgv20]

0zHMON has a hurricane just east of Port Mansfield by Friday afternoon.

[Alyono]

HWRF has 92 kts in Corpus

[BRweather]

I am surprised many of these models are taking the southwest turn now and staying over land. With such complex steering currents, I still think it is too early to jump to that conclusion, especially with GFS and ECMWF not taking that route yet. Very curious in what 00z ECMWF will show. Don't expect much change unless the recon flight data changes the parameters.

[jasons2k]

Y'all stay on the topic of models please!! Now I need to delete posts.

[mcheer23]

NAVY model slightly north

[jasons2k]

In the last three runs, the GFS has had me from 20" to a little over 3" to now almost 25." Wow.

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS ensemble takes it more over water after 1st landfall but weaker

[SoupBone]

In the last three runs, the GFS has had me from 20" to a little over 3" to now almost 25." Wow.

I've often thought about this. We talk about how difficult landfall predictions are (and they are), but rainfall predictions seem to be the most difficult, often to the point of absurdity. Even when dealing with daily thunderstorm forecasts, they are often abysmal at predicting rainfall amounts.