ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Steve]

In the last three runs, the GFS has had me from 20" to a little over 3" to now almost 25." Wow.

That's the rest of the story. G-Cane showed the 5000 CAPE earlier up in the NW Gulf. That's a **** ton of rain that far north regardless of track. If Woodlands pulls 2'...

[Alyono]

GFS ensemble takes it more over water after 1st landfall but weaker

that is an ensemble mean. It's likely not weaker, but there is simply more model spread

[msp]

GFS ensemble mean for houston is over a foot of rain

[mcheer23]

Major shift north by navy

[Hammy]

Is Tropical Tidbits down? I can't load the models or recon.

[HouTXmetro]

Link please for Navy?

[BRweather]

Is Tropical Tidbits down? I can't load the models or recon.

working on my end. I think so at least. lol

[msp]

Link please for Navy?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=128

comes in over the west end of matagorda bayy

[mcheer23]

EURO initialized at 21.6 north....it's currently at 22.6.

[msp]

EURO initialized at 21.6 north....it's currently at 22.6.

yeah

[Blinhart]

EURO initialized at 21.6 north....it's currently at 22.6.

Not quite that far North, it is at 22.0N

[msp]

euro at 24hr is southwest of its 12z run

[mcheer23]

EURO initialized at 21.6 north....it's currently at 22.6.

Not quite that far North, it is at 22.0N

22.6 as of 1am advisory.

[Alyono]

EC is 4mb too weak as of 6Z. It has 1005mb then when the pressure is 1001. Has the center in the correct position though

[BRweather]

Yeah the ECMWF initialized poorly. Basically a whole degree too far south.

[Alyono]

EC has shifted east after 33 hours, by about 30 nm

[Alyono]

Yeah the ECMWF initialized poorly. Basically a whole degree too far south.

it's fine. Center is in perfect position at 6Z

[1900hurricane]

EURO initialized at 21.6 north....it's currently at 22.6.

Nothing wrong with that. The vortex data message at 23:48:50Z fixed Harvey at 21.7ºN. All of the northward movement/relocation has occurred since 00Z, the time of model initiation.

[Alyono]

EC coming in a bit weaker, NOT intensifying it significantly as it approaches Texas

[BRweather]

Yeah the ECMWF initialized poorly. Basically a whole degree too far south.

it's fine. Center is in perfect position at 6Z

Oh okay. That makes sense. Thanks