ATL: HARVEY - Models

[msp]

HWRF brings harvey back out into gulf around 111hr... add it to the list showing a loop

[Cpv17]

EC coming in a bit weaker, NOT intensifying it significantly as it approaches Texas

Well that is good news at least.

[msp]

euro offshore at 48hrs south of corpus

[Alyono]

EC has landfall at 9Z near Corpus at 984mb

[BRweather]

ECMWF basically putting Harvey dead in reverse. Right back offshore where it initially made landfall.

[BRweather]

Too far offshore for my comfort. Not what I was hoping to see tonight. People in Louisiana do not need this after last year.

[Alyono]

979mb at Lake Charles

[Jagno]

Wouldn't 979mb put this at a Cat 2 into Lake Charles? When?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... x_new.html







INLINE with navy intensity

[bbadon]

The 06Z intensity guidance has increased rather dramatically. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[Alyono]

Wouldn't 979mb put this at a Cat 2 into Lake Charles? When?

most likely a mid grade cat 1

[hd44]

Ecmwf intensity is not doing good... this thing is already down to 996 mb .

[Hammy]

NAM 32km has low 960s near Corpus.

[stormreader]

Too far offshore for my comfort. Not what I was hoping to see tonight. People in Louisiana do not need this after last year.

Its serious. Because I still think that there will be a shift east in models in the next 24 hours or so. Storm has relocated or moved somewhat further north (as noted in recent posts). An indication I think of a track to the east of forecast. Think a strong possibility that the storm never penetrates the Texas coast but stays in the coastal waters, moving very slowly, and then begin more of the NNE move toward the Tex-La area. After the south and west shifts yesterday, notice that current model runs seem to show less penetration of the coast than earlier. Think this trend will continue, with eventual course being to coastal waters, thus little to no weakening, than that move NNE.

[hd44]

Gfs coming in strong by 12z by 4mb.

[hd44]

11 mb stronger by 18 hours wow.

[Sciencerocks]

11 mb stronger by 18 hours wow.

Slightly east by about 20 miles too.

[Hammy]

11 mb stronger by 18 hours wow.

Slightly east by about 20 miles too.

Aug 25/00z down a total of 23mb from just two runs ago--significantly stronger trend here.

[hd44]

Going for cat 3/4. This is what we feared.

[Sciencerocks]

20-30 miles east at 24 hours over the 00z.

961mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

30 hours 955mb and appears 40-50 miles east of 00z.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=105

36 hours at 947mb and appears 30 miles east of 00z.