ATL: HARVEY - Models

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

Not a very big eye according to COAMPS

[northjaxpro]

Folks, the GFS unfortunately.may be close to verifying with these latest runs above. It is downright potentially catastrophic event unfolding.

[tolakram]

Finishing a loop back. Begins to move inland again after this frame.

[stormreader]

Folks, the GFS unfortunately.may be close to verifying with these latest runs above. It is downright potentially catastrophic event unfolding.

Yeah, and we're in the time-frame now where model errors really begin shrinking. Will check Euro run later today. If it continues to show a major penetration of the Texas coast near Corpus, then it looks like its game-on there. Thought there might be less west trend today, but its still there and model error is decreasing rapidly in the short time frame involved.

[tolakram]

Precip continues to pile up. While intensity may be a factor the big story is going to be flooding IMO.

[KWT]

Well that is certainly a run for the books, coming in as a top end 3/4 hurricane on this run is certainly not what you want to see!

Little time to really get public attention, been a long time since we've had this sort of situation. At least with Matthew there was alot of time to prepare for it.

[stormlover2013]

Feeling we might see models shift tad east on 12z runs

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS V NAM

[mcheer23]

Feeling we might see models shift tad east on 12z runs

Yeah, I think this will make landfall around where the first NHC advisory had it.

[caneman]

Pretty scary run, hopefully this is typical GFS.

Looking at Satellite, it may be.right. That is one menacing looking system

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[stormreader]

Feeling we might see models shift tad east on 12z runs

Yeah, I think this will make landfall around where the first NHC advisory had it.

Perhaps. Going to check Euro run at noon. But if general agreement holds between it and GFS at that time, then it looks very likely for a landfall near Corpus (perhaps a little north). But will check Euro at that time for further confirmation.

[NDG]

I see that the 0z Euro is almost identical to its 12z runs, can't beat it consistency and persistency.

[mcheer23]

HWRF is going to come in further north. Down to 955mb too

[Kingarabian]

I see that the 0z Euro is almost identical to its 12z runs, can't beat it consistency and persistency.

Was the EPS posted?

00z EPS is identical to the operational Euro and is also more bullish as it sends a 985mb hurricane into western Lousiana.

[KWT]

HWRF is going to come in further north. Down to 955mb too

Yes and it is a borderline major by that point as well, probably between 90-100kts on average in the last part of the run. Gearing up to be a strong hurricane once it reaches land by the looks of things.

[ronjon]

06z HWRF coming in at 954 mb just north of Corpus near Port O Connor at 2 am Sat morning.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=09L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017082406&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[NDG]

06z HWRF coming in at 954 mb just north of Corpus near Port O Connor at 2 am Sat morning.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=09L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017082406&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

It keeps shifting to the right during the past 2-3 runs after being to the left of the Euro and GFS in the first couple of days.

[WAcyclone]

The operational UKMET as well as the ensembles significantly shifted to the west at 00z. However, they are still to the east of most of the other models.

UKMET operational trend during the last three runs:



UKMET ensembles: