ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Portastorm]

Ok what just happened..went to bed and now I am looking at a rapidly developing system woe

Yep ROCK ... it appears our "luck" is about to run out.

[txwatcher91]

IMO we will be looking at a cat 4 or maybe even 5 at landfall... Yes this seems a bit extreme but when you have the 3km NAM that indicated this rapidly deepening (it's done well so far) and the GFS with 940mb at landfall... excellent UL conditions and a rapid pressure drop and 36 hours till landfall... That is plenty of time for a cat 4/5 and I do believe we will see this. Even worse, if it stalls over or near Corpus Christi and the center stays barely onshore like the Euro is showing, it will be slow to weaken and they could be in or near the eyewall for DAYS. Folks, this is very concerning and could be one of the worst natural disasters to hit Texas, IMO.

[tolakram]

SLIDER had a bit of a hiccup but is working again, updated link.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1045&y=1031&z=1&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[ROCK]

I went to bed at 12 and 7 hrs later almost cat 1..for all you new guys now you know how difficult intensity forecasts are..I am pretty shocked right now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Def think we have hurricane winds on this next fly through on the NE quadrant.

[FireRat]

Wow, what a surprise to wake up to! Harvey looks like a Cat 1 already, and he seems to be getting his act together lightning quick. This feels like a nightmare scenario for SE Texas, just a day before landfall and the storm pulls an RI right on Andrew's 25th anniversary. This is prime time in the tropics folks, I hope they are able to get ready quick in the landfall threat zone!!

Friday night through Saturday could be brutal for many in SE Texas. Major Hurricane odds have shot up, I now remember that NAM run and it is amazing how that "insane" model run showing 897 mb landfall late on 8/25 is now the closest reality given the recent trend. Might see a Cat 3 strike in all seriousness, and God forbid a C4+.

[hd44]

Wow, what a surprise to wake up to! Harvey looks like a Cat 1 already, and he seems to be getting his act together lightning quick. This feels like a nightmare scenario for SE Texas, just a day before landfall and the storm pulls an RI right on Andrew's 25th anniversary. This is prime time in the tropics folks, I hope they are able to get ready quick in the landfall threat zone!!

Friday night through Saturday could be brutal for many in SE Texas. Major Hurricane odds have shot up, I now remember that NAM run and it is amazing how that "insane" model run showing 897 mb landfall late on 8/25 is now the closest reality given the recent trend. Might see a Cat 3 strike in all seriousness, and God forbid a C4+.

Looking a lot like Patricia right now, lets hope not.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow, what a surprise to wake up to! Harvey looks like a Cat 1 already, and he seems to be getting his act together lightning quick. This feels like a nightmare scenario for SE Texas, just a day before landfall and the storm pulls an RI right on Andrew's 25th anniversary. This is prime time in the tropics folks, I hope they are able to get ready quick in the landfall threat zone!!

Friday night through Saturday could be brutal for many in SE Texas. Major Hurricane odds have shot up, I now remember that NAM run and it is amazing how that "insane" model run showing 897 mb landfall late on 8/25 is now the closest reality given the recent trend. Might see a Cat 3 strike in all seriousness, and God forbid a C4+.

Looking a lot like Patricia right now, lets hope not.

Lol, thats a brave statement. It will blow up for the next 12 hours i think but careful on Patricia comments!

[Texas Snowman]

Ok what just happened..went to bed and now I am looking at a rapidly developing system woe

Yep ROCK ... it appears our "luck" is about to run out.

Portastorm, think my hypothetical question the other day is getting answered, which would come first, Austin snow or Texas hurricane...

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/900696865229996033

[Frank P]

What if any models had Harvey in this heading per the NHC ...PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H.... would think this might have potential right shift consequences in future model runs? 10mph is pretty optimal speed for continuing strengthening... MHO

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/900697348497711104




NHC providing live interviews regarding #Harvey to networks & to those media outlets in watch/warning areas. http://www.hurricanes.gov @NOAA

[Dean4Storms]

If you go by the last recon mission this is moving NNW.

[gatorcane]

Hope everybody is prepared in Texas. Does the latest GFS really have a CAT 4?

[WAcyclone]

Wow, what a surprise to wake up to! Harvey looks like a Cat 1 already, and he seems to be getting his act together lightning quick. This feels like a nightmare scenario for SE Texas, just a day before landfall and the storm pulls an RI right on Andrew's 25th anniversary. This is prime time in the tropics folks, I hope they are able to get ready quick in the landfall threat zone!!

Friday night through Saturday could be brutal for many in SE Texas. Major Hurricane odds have shot up, I now remember that NAM run and it is amazing how that "insane" model run showing 897 mb landfall late on 8/25 is now the closest reality given the recent trend. Might see a Cat 3 strike in all seriousness, and God forbid a C4+.

Looking a lot like Patricia right now, lets hope not.

No, it's not at all looking like Patricia (when it was at about the same strength as Harvey is right now):

[ROCK]

any right shift brings it closer to more humans than cows....but I have seen it happen before as they approach landfall.....I am sure they are sounding the crap up and down the coast right now.

[KWT]

Yeah it is a little right of where the models expected, but that maybe a result of the way the center has tightened up and was pulled up by the deep convection blowing up around it.

Going to need to get a few more recon passes to have any real confidence of current track.

[NDG]

Beautiful cyclone.

[GCANE]

[tolakram]

36 frame loop

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1009&y=959&z=1&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

12:35Z