ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

winds are lagging the pressure quite a bit. Has a monsoon trough p/w. HMON and HWRF seem to have been right about that

Yeah they have a lower pressure than you'd expect, though for the W.Gulf that doesn't seem to be an uncommon feature (also for BoC/W.Caribbean, they often seem to get that monsoon trough type situation.)

[pcolaman]

Motion certainly looks NW now on sat loops now... Disclaimer: my unofficial, uneducated, premature speculation and opinion only...

If you look at the larger picture of Harvey, you can see how he is expanding not turning. It's an illusions

[MississippiWx]

winds will catch up..not much I can see upstream to knock it down...unless it goes into ERCs before landfall...IDK...been awhile since 08 and 05 to see something like this in GOM.

Will be interesting to see if other models follow HWRF lead on track. It had a significant shift north and east up the TX coastline giving Harvey even more time over water.

[deltadog03]

Well I would say near land there is always dry air to worry about, but until then, it’s got some very warm water and an upper level anticyclone...... so it could super be off to the races.

[Frank P]

Motion certainly looks NW now on sat loops now... Disclaimer: my unofficial, uneducated, premature speculation and opinion only...

If you look at the larger picture of Harvey, you can see how he is expanding not turning. It's an illusions

Could be, need more RECON baby!

[Tireman4]

Motion certainly looks NW now on sat loops now... Disclaimer: my unofficial, uneducated, premature speculation and opinion only...

If you look at the larger picture of Harvey, you can see how he is expanding not turning. It's an illusions

Could be, need more RECON baby!

Are they not in there Frank..or am I missing something..?

[pcolaman]

Motion certainly looks NW now on sat loops now... Disclaimer: my unofficial, uneducated, premature speculation and opinion only...

If you look at the larger picture of Harvey, you can see how he is expanding not turning. It's an illusions

Could be, need more RECON baby!

In a few hours you won't need recon lol

[tolakram]

In Storm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF3091209AHARVEY

[AubreyStorm]

[psyclone]

It's been awhile since we've seen a storm go bananas in the Gulf but before long... we're going to be saying... eye see Harvey.

[lrak]

HELP

Nobody is at work today I'm the only one. I wonder if I didn't get the message.

Stay safe Karl!

Thank you Sir.

[Christiana]

Can a pro-met or one of our experienced posters briefly explain what factors influence the overall size of a hurricane? I've always wondered this. The Gulf has had some great big storms which certainly increases surge damage. Yep, size matters. Sorry if this is an elementary question. Thanks in advance for any replies.

[northjaxpro]

I just pray that all in harm's way is getting out NOW!!!

Harvey is just bombing now! He may indeed. take a run at Cat 5. Extremely dangerous situation unfolding....

[Hurrilurker]

It's really hard for me to believe what I'm seeing on sat is only 984mb...

[pcolaman]

The way I see it , almost no shear, high sst. Major on the way. Mho

[Yellow Evan]

I know we have recon but since Dvorak is a passion of mine worth posting....

24/1145 UTC 23.2N 93.4W T3.0/3.0 HARVEY -- Atlantic

[Tireman4]

HELP

Nobody is at work today I'm the only one. I wonder if I didn't get the message.

Stay safe Karl!

Thank you Sir.

Did you not get the text and email? We did. We said, nope..we are gone...no no ...stay safe Karl..hunker down and ride it out sir.

[SouthDadeFish]

Can a pro-met or one of our experienced posters briefly explain what factors influence the overall size of a hurricane? I've always wondered this. The Gulf has had some great big storms which certainly increases surge damage. Yep, size matters. Sorry if this is an elementary question. Thanks in advance for any replies.

This is still the subject of ongoing research. From what I've seen, a couple of the main factors are the size of the predecessor disturbance (for example, the African easterly wave), and the environmental moisture. Moist environments tend to support large TCs.

[MississippiWx]

It's really hard for me to believe what I'm seeing on sat is only 984mb...

Structure, sea surface temps, and upper level environment are all very conducive for rapid deepening. Pressures will likely fall all day in Harvey. Only internal issues that we can't predict can keep him from strengthening up until landfall. Scary situation.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/900712541139107840