ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

This could very well be Celia 2.0 that may be developing.

cannot rule out something a lot stronger than Celia

[1900hurricane]

Here's a new 1 minute SLIDER loop from Mesoscale window 1. Band 13 is overlaid on band 2.

http://col.st/ALZ71

[tolakram]

13:56Z

[GCANE]

At least 3 off-the-scale rain-rate hot towers firing simulateously.

[TheStormExpert]

That is not a 60mph TS.

Nothing from recon as of yet really justifies too much more, it IS still a 60mph TS right now, but clearly not going to be staying that way for long given its structure and the way the pressure is dropping away.

Hope the NHC really highlight the seriousness of the situation unfolding, its going to be needed.

As of the 12z Best Track it says it is a 55kt (65mph) TS.

Tropical Storm HARVEY
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 24, 2017:

Location: 23.8°N 93.0°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

[KWT]

Not going to be long before we see an eye, can already see where it is going to come out at tolakram on your image there.

Just for reference, Celia came into Texas at 125mph, so for Alyono to state it could come in stronger, that is warning enough!

[TheStormExpert]

Strongest storm pressure-wise since Alex (2010) so far.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/900719343918399488

[TheStormExpert]

Eye developing.


 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/900716772999004160

[KWT]

Strongest storm pressure-wise since Alex (2010) so far.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/900719343918399488

Alex went all the way down to 946mbs, the pressure was deeper than the winds would suggest (winds did get to 110mph in the end) but that system is probably the next big milestone storm in this area of the ocean, once above that then we are into the big boys league!

[MaineWeatherNut]

141630 2354N 09312W 8428 01354 9828 +215 +169 232009 014 017 001 03

Looks to be down another MB or 2 this pass... 982 or 983

[psyclone]

Corpus goes all in on their near shore marine forecast (southern leg)

Friday Night
hurricane conditions expected. North wind 50 to 70 knots becoming west 60 to 70 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 95 knots. Seas 30 feet with occasional seas up to 38 feet building to 32 feet with occasional seas up to 41 feet after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

[tolakram]

Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 982.8 mb

[MaineWeatherNut]

Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 982.8 mb

Still had a 14kt wind there though so it could be a little lower on the next data set.

[1900hurricane]

Latest band 2 image:

[tolakram]

14:17Z

[tarheelprogrammer]

Latest band 2 image:

That is impressive looking. Is there a chance the models trend north? Also, could this reach major status?

[ronjon]

Looks like some dry air might be getting pulled into the south side of the storm - not sure if this might slow intensification a bit.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rb-long.html

[RL3AO]

Continues to deepen at 1 to 1.5 mb per hour. Winds still suggest a 55kt TS.

[KWT]

Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 982.8 mb

Still had a 14kt wind there though so it could be a little lower on the next data set.

Yeah 982 looks about right, maybe sneaking into the 981s now. Still deepening at a fair clip at the moment, the sat presentation also getting a very classic hurricane look now and won't be too many more hours before we see the eye pop out.

[NDG]

Pressure continues to go down.

981.5 mb by recon's extrap