ATL: HARVEY - Models
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stormlover2013
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Good to see lesser of a stall with the NAM 12km and 32km. 3km sort of mimics the CMC and sits around South Texas and rains. But it doesn't go far enough out to see what happens next. The idea of only a stall for a day or so is a big difference from 2 days.
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Rockin4NOLA
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
hd44 wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_gefs_latest.png
Gefs do the same track as euro. Inland..stall and back over gulf.
How can that graphic be right. Isn't the pressure already lower than 1002 mb?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Rockin4NOLA wrote:hd44 wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_gefs_latest.png
Gefs do the same track as euro. Inland..stall and back over gulf.
How can that graphic be right. Isn't the pressure already lower than 1002 mb?
Models do not handle pressure very well, it's upper air and track that is being looked at. Euro was way off on pressure as well.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Port Lavaca is only 90 miles from Houston's SW suburds and only 115 to downtown. WOW
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TW in Texas Hill Country 
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Tireman4
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
bohaiboy wrote:Port Lavaca is only 90 miles from Houston's SW suburds and only 115 to downtown. WOW
Yep. Carla hit there as a Cat 4 in 1961. Yes, it did some serious damage to Galveston and Houston. That is where Dan Rather got his first national recognition being on KHOU. Back to the models...I agree, I am still thinking the UKMET may have hit upon something..
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
North of previous run.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
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hd44
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Gfs initializes this 12 mb to weak. This run is wrong before it began on intensity.
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HurricaneBrain
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
938 ....
Last edited by HurricaneBrain on Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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hd44
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
HurricaneBrain wrote:938 ....
Subtract 12 because because Gfs started too weak.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
hd44 wrote:HurricaneBrain wrote:938 ....
Subtract 12 because because Gfs started too weak.
It's not a simple linear equation.
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M a r k
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hd44
Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
This is around 981 ... gfs 12z point is 993. That means gfs probably even underdoing intensity by 12mb.
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BigB0882
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
Is it possible that Harvey is strengthening so quickly that the GFS took in the best data it had when it initialized? It may be impossible for any model to initialize correctly when a storm is bombing out, right?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
GFS trend
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
GFs down to 937mbs looking at a closer image of the area Harvey is in before slightly weakening into landfall (slightly!)
Slightly to the NE this run, but not by a huge amount.
Slightly to the NE this run, but not by a huge amount.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models
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