ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tgenius]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

UPDATE

UPDATED FORECAST TO BACK OFF ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE CERTAINLY IS STILL A
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING MORE ALONG
THE TROPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO, THE EFFICIENCY OF THE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE
RAIN HAS BEEN HIGH. THIS REINFORCES THE THOUGHT BEHIND THE FLOOD
WATCH, WHICH A URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY. ALSO, ADJUSTED POPS TO BE LOWER IN THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING, WHICH IS REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE NEW POP FORECAST MAINLY WAS UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF
THE SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES MODELS, WHICH LOOKS FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

Think the Under is gonna win on this one!

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

UPDATE

UPDATED FORECAST TO BACK OFF ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE CERTAINLY IS STILL A
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING MORE ALONG
THE TROPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO, THE EFFICIENCY OF THE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE
RAIN HAS BEEN HIGH. THIS REINFORCES THE THOUGHT BEHIND THE FLOOD
WATCH, WHICH A URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY. ALSO, ADJUSTED POPS TO BE LOWER IN THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING, WHICH IS REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THE NEW POP FORECAST MAINLY WAS UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF
THE SYNOPTIC AND HI-RES MODELS, WHICH LOOKS FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

Think the Under is gonna win on this one!

37 hours hours to go, looks like sw flow is beginning to take over which can lead to big totals, overs have the upper hand now that we had that early morning convection, plenty of opportunity for localized 8+ now and nws has the flood watch through sat morning..overs cant have the low getting to dominant and robbing all the moisture from the eastern half of the state

[SFLcane]

Curious to see if we get any development before it crosses over florida. Dare i say i see some banding taking shape this morning. Obviously dealing with shear from Harvey.

[northjaxpro]

Curious to see if we get any development before it crosses over florida. Dare i say i see some banding taking shape this morning. Obviously dealing with shear from Harvey.

Well. Let me put it this way. 92L, although under northerly shear, is sitting in some of the warmest ssts in the basin right now. I think there is a shot for this to develop before crossing the peninsula to the Atlantic side. It is not moving much at the moment, so until.it starts moving, it can sit over those toasty waters and develop a bit. That is what it is trying to do at this time actually.

Actually visible imagery shows the broad , sheared circulaion due west of Ft. Myers. Northerly shear has blownnthe convective tops to its south/southeast.

[SFLcane]

Curious to see if we get any development before it crosses over florida. Dare i say i see some banding taking shape this morning. Obviously dealing with shear from Harvey.

Well. Let me put it this way. 92L, although under northerly shear, is sitting in some of the warmest ssts in the basin right now. I think there is a shot for this to develop before crossing the peninsula to the Atlantic side. It is not moving much at the moment, so until.it starts moving, it can sit over those toasty waters and develop a bit. That is what it is trying to do at this time actually.

Yet only 10% from NHC maybe they increase at 2.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I wanted a locate the center of 92L. I used a yellow star to indicate where I think it is based on vis satellite:

[cycloneye]

Going to make pass from SW to NE.

[northjaxpro]

I wanted a locate the center of 92L. I used a yellow star to indicate where I think it is based on vis satellite:

Yeah, that is pretty much about right with the yellow star mark.

[psyclone]

this would have a chance were it not for big brother to the west

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

this would have a chance were it not for big brother to the west

Yup. This should mainly be a heavy rain threat for Florida- especially South Florida. Harvey's shear should keep it from intensifying to any wind speeds greater than what our normal thunderstorms deliver.

[cycloneye]

[northjaxpro]

: It will have a better chance of. developing after it crosses over into the Atlantic as a tropical or subtropical entity as it would be farther away from Harvey's outflow .

[joey]

this would have a chance were it not for big brother to the west

Yup. This should mainly be a heavy rain threat for Florida- especially South Florida. Harvey's shear should keep it from intensifying to any wind speeds greater than what our normal thunderstorms deliver.

yes and the overs may win after it all said and done once that convection to the south moves over the so fl area

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241616
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 45 20170824
160700 2306N 09426W 8429 01529 0050 +168 +151 325019 020 022 001 00
160730 2307N 09425W 8433 01524 0048 +169 +151 326019 019 023 000 00
160800 2308N 09424W 8425 01532 0048 +170 +151 324019 020 022 001 00
160830 2309N 09422W 8429 01528 0049 +170 +153 321018 019 022 000 00
160900 2310N 09421W 8429 01528 0048 +168 +153 319020 021 021 001 00
160930 2311N 09420W 8428 01528 0044 +173 +149 318020 022 020 001 00
161000 2312N 09419W 8429 01527 0046 +167 +157 321022 022 025 001 00
161030 2314N 09418W 8430 01523 0044 +169 +159 318022 023 023 001 00
161100 2315N 09416W 8432 01522 0043 +173 +152 312022 023 022 001 00
161130 2316N 09415W 8433 01521 0041 +173 +150 314022 023 021 001 00
161200 2317N 09414W 8424 01529 0046 +163 +158 315022 023 024 003 01
161230 2318N 09413W 8425 01524 0043 +165 +164 308022 023 025 004 01
161300 2319N 09411W 8429 01522 0038 +174 +155 305022 023 023 003 00
161330 2320N 09410W 8428 01523 0039 +168 +160 307023 024 025 001 00
161400 2322N 09409W 8431 01517 0038 +171 +158 313023 025 024 002 00
161430 2323N 09408W 8432 01516 0034 +174 +156 313024 025 023 001 00
161500 2324N 09407W 8428 01519 0036 +174 +154 315024 025 024 001 00
161530 2325N 09405W 8430 01516 0035 +170 +153 316025 025 026 002 00
161600 2326N 09404W 8429 01516 0032 +171 +151 312025 027 025 002 00
161630 2327N 09403W 8425 01519 0032 +171 +149 310027 027 025 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241626
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 46 20170824
161700 2328N 09402W 8431 01511 0028 +178 +143 308026 027 025 001 00
161730 2330N 09401W 8427 01515 0028 +172 +152 314028 029 028 002 00
161800 2331N 09359W 8432 01508 0026 +173 +154 316030 030 027 001 00
161830 2332N 09358W 8428 01511 0025 +171 +160 312026 029 027 001 00
161900 2333N 09357W 8430 01507 //// +166 //// 307026 026 027 001 01
161930 2334N 09356W 8426 01511 0030 +166 //// 306028 028 029 006 01
162000 2335N 09354W 8424 01507 0032 +169 //// 308029 033 031 008 01
162030 2336N 09353W 8436 01496 0033 +168 +168 306029 031 031 008 00
162100 2338N 09352W 8431 01500 0032 +164 +164 310029 032 030 007 00
162130 2339N 09351W 8428 01502 0022 +163 //// 309025 026 030 006 01
162200 2340N 09349W 8432 01494 0014 +169 +169 296028 031 031 005 01
162230 2341N 09348W 8432 01495 0022 +171 +171 305030 033 033 008 00
162300 2342N 09347W 8423 01500 0020 +164 //// 297029 031 031 009 01
162330 2343N 09346W 8429 01491 0010 +166 //// 295031 033 029 005 01
162400 2345N 09344W 8432 01487 0014 +167 //// 298033 034 032 006 01
162430 2346N 09343W 8425 01493 0004 +170 //// 294032 032 032 006 01
162500 2347N 09342W 8430 01483 0001 +170 +170 288035 037 032 006 00
162530 2348N 09341W 8429 01480 9991 +174 +169 292039 040 032 004 00
162600 2349N 09339W 8427 01477 9996 +165 //// 288035 040 031 005 05
162630 2351N 09338W 8433 01471 0000 +166 //// 300027 033 029 007 01
$$

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241626
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 46 20170824
161700 2328N 09402W 8431 01511 0028 +178 +143 308026 027 025 001 00
161730 2330N 09401W 8427 01515 0028 +172 +152 314028 029 028 002 00
161800 2331N 09359W 8432 01508 0026 +173 +154 316030 030 027 001 00
161830 2332N 09358W 8428 01511 0025 +171 +160 312026 029 027 001 00
161900 2333N 09357W 8430 01507 //// +166 //// 307026 026 027 001 01
161930 2334N 09356W 8426 01511 0030 +166 //// 306028 028 029 006 01
162000 2335N 09354W 8424 01507 0032 +169 //// 308029 033 031 008 01
162030 2336N 09353W 8436 01496 0033 +168 +168 306029 031 031 008 00
162100 2338N 09352W 8431 01500 0032 +164 +164 310029 032 030 007 00
162130 2339N 09351W 8428 01502 0022 +163 //// 309025 026 030 006 01
162200 2340N 09349W 8432 01494 0014 +169 +169 296028 031 031 005 01
162230 2341N 09348W 8432 01495 0022 +171 +171 305030 033 033 008 00
162300 2342N 09347W 8423 01500 0020 +164 //// 297029 031 031 009 01
162330 2343N 09346W 8429 01491 0010 +166 //// 295031 033 029 005 01
162400 2345N 09344W 8432 01487 0014 +167 //// 298033 034 032 006 01
162430 2346N 09343W 8425 01493 0004 +170 //// 294032 032 032 006 01
162500 2347N 09342W 8430 01483 0001 +170 +170 288035 037 032 006 00
162530 2348N 09341W 8429 01480 9991 +174 +169 292039 040 032 004 00
162600 2349N 09339W 8427 01477 9996 +165 //// 288035 040 031 005 05
162630 2351N 09338W 8433 01471 0000 +166 //// 300027 033 029 007 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241636
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 47 20170824
162700 2352N 09337W 8426 01476 9995 +165 +165 301028 029 030 007 00
162730 2353N 09336W 8425 01473 9988 +164 +164 301026 029 030 006 00
162800 2355N 09335W 8434 01460 9986 +160 +160 299026 028 030 012 00
162830 2356N 09334W 8425 01463 9987 +158 +158 292029 030 033 012 00
162900 2357N 09333W 8430 01453 9979 +160 //// 283032 033 033 010 05
162930 2359N 09332W 8431 01446 9970 +164 +164 277033 034 035 010 00
163000 2400N 09331W 8426 01446 9965 +161 //// 279034 035 037 004 01
163030 2402N 09331W 8425 01438 9951 +163 //// 281036 040 041 005 05
163100 2403N 09330W 8429 01426 //// +156 //// 285043 045 043 003 01
163130 2405N 09329W 8418 01427 9909 +178 +176 286044 045 043 002 01
163200 2406N 09329W 8439 01392 //// +179 //// 285050 053 051 002 01
163230 2408N 09328W 8419 01398 //// +180 //// 278050 053 053 004 01
163300 2409N 09327W 8427 01365 9847 +194 +193 267044 051 060 006 03
163330 2411N 09327W 8427 01348 9820 +209 +194 266026 041 060 007 00
163400 2412N 09328W 8428 01338 9806 +220 +189 257013 018 031 001 00
163430 2414N 09328W 8433 01332 9810 +207 +189 277007 012 020 001 03
163500 2416N 09328W 8432 01328 9807 +202 +192 314005 007 021 000 00
163530 2417N 09328W 8426 01328 9796 +213 +189 086003 009 020 001 00
163600 2419N 09328W 8433 01322 9799 +211 +185 083016 017 023 001 00
163630 2420N 09328W 8430 01327 9801 +210 +187 078022 022 026 002 00
$$
;

60 kt SFMR, pressure 980mb.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241646
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 48 20170824
163700 2422N 09328W 8429 01332 9804 +207 +190 081031 037 041 003 03
163730 2423N 09327W 8430 01332 9807 +208 +189 082040 041 052 003 00
163800 2424N 09326W 8432 01334 9811 +206 +189 090048 053 059 003 00
163830 2425N 09325W 8429 01339 9821 +196 +194 097057 059 071 007 05
163900 2426N 09324W 8426 01349 9828 +194 +189 108065 068 072 002 00
163930 2427N 09323W 8434 01354 9849 +187 //// 115073 078 076 003 01
164000 2428N 09322W 8443 01352 9867 +176 //// 117080 083 077 005 05
164030 2429N 09321W 8425 01382 9872 +183 //// 122084 086 072 007 01
164100 2429N 09320W 8430 01389 9891 +182 +182 121083 088 070 009 03
164130 2430N 09319W 8423 01405 9911 +177 +177 124084 085 068 020 03
164200 2431N 09318W 8437 01404 9929 +173 +173 127084 085 /// /// 03
164230 2432N 09317W 8424 01428 9940 +172 +172 127080 083 059 013 00
164300 2433N 09316W 8425 01436 9954 +168 +168 129075 077 058 010 00
164330 2434N 09315W 8432 01438 9962 +165 //// 128072 075 056 009 01
164400 2435N 09314W 8435 01442 9963 +169 //// 128072 073 052 006 01
164430 2435N 09313W 8424 01461 9969 +169 //// 128071 073 050 006 01
164500 2436N 09312W 8428 01457 //// +170 //// 133066 070 050 002 01
164530 2437N 09310W 8434 01459 9977 +171 //// 131058 064 051 013 05
164600 2438N 09309W 8438 01457 9993 +165 +165 129066 066 052 014 00
164630 2439N 09308W 8425 01473 9999 +160 +160 131063 066 044 019 00
$$
;

88 kt FL, 76 kt SFMR. Expect a Special Advisory soon.