ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Frank P]

wow, now cruising the LA coast line

[SoupBone]

I've been away this morning, but have the models still been jumping all over, or have they settled on the Greater Corpus area? Any guesses if there are going to be any major shifts at this point?

[Ivanhater]

Northern and central gulf Coast gets pounded by the eastern onshore fetch for a week...then moves east along the gulf coast....reminiscent of Allison 2001

[Janie2006]

Skirting east along central gulf Coast now

Yeah, I'd rather it didn't.

[Steve]

Northern and central gulf Coast gets pounded by the eastern onshore fetch for a week...then moves east along the gulf coast....reminiscent of Allison 2001

Yeah. That's 7 days or so before moving inland around Abbeville, LA. Next Thursday day I guess. It's pretty unbelievable that it would take a week just to go a few hundred miles. Definitely not a typical August type pattern for a Gulf storm. Some of y'all will be talking about this and drawing parallels 40-50 years from now.

[ROCK]

Northern and central gulf Coast gets pounded by the eastern onshore fetch for a week...then moves east along the gulf coast....reminiscent of Allison 2001

Yeah. That's 7 days or so before moving inland around Abbeville, LA. Next Thursday day I guess. It's pretty unbelievable that it would take a week just to go a few hundred miles. Definitely not a typical August type pattern for a Gulf storm. Some of y'all will be talking about this and drawing parallels 40-50 years from now.

already heard Carla been thrown around....just for you locals...even if not a direct hit remember the tornados this can spawn....Carla sent a EF3 into DT Galveston in the 60's.

[Ivanhater]

Insane Steve...still along the gulf coast a week from now

[Janie2006]

Should these models verify.....yes, folks will be talking about it for decades to come. I still talk about Elena, for instance. Look up "model madness" in the dictionary and you'll see a satellite picture of her.

[Frank P]

Northern and central gulf Coast gets pounded by the eastern onshore fetch for a week...then moves east along the gulf coast....reminiscent of Allison 2001

Yeah, but if memory serve me correct Allison made it back in the GOM, and we in Biloxi were pelted with 60mph plus winds... now to see if the Euro gets it back in the gulf or its a inland coast rider like the latest GFS

[ROCK]

Northern and central gulf Coast gets pounded by the eastern onshore fetch for a week...then moves east along the gulf coast....reminiscent of Allison 2001

Yeah, but if memory serve me correct Allison made it back in the GOM, and we in Biloxi were pelted with 60mph plus winds... now to see if the Euro gets it back in the gulf or its a inland coast rider like the latest GFS

hard to go against the GFS even though it been crap med range...if the EURO follows then I am with you Frank

[msp]

hmon 12z stronger, much more north than 6z

928mb about to make landfall at corpus

[tolakram]

HWRF init at 985mb

[tolakram]

[mcheer23]

CMC shifted the loop east instead of west, floods Houston again.

HMON shifts north and is a cat 4

HWRF looks a little north again.

UKMET was nearly the same as 00z

[Frank P]

Northern and central gulf Coast gets pounded by the eastern onshore fetch for a week...then moves east along the gulf coast....reminiscent of Allison 2001

Yeah, but if memory serve me correct Allison made it back in the GOM, and we in Biloxi were pelted with 60mph plus winds... now to see if the Euro gets it back in the gulf or its a inland coast rider like the latest GFS

hard to go against the GFS even though it been crap med range...if the EURO follows then I am with you Frank

Yeah Rock, all eyes will be on the Euro this afternoon... it comes in with another coast hugger be it either on the coast or immediately off the coast then the entire coast of TX will most likely be flooded big time, then the second half kickoff will flood most of southern LA... this is a very bad setup if it comes to fruition... at least my house would never flood from any rain event... being 28 feel above sea level and right on the coast...

[Ivanhater]

Yep..12z Canadian offshore moving east along northern gulf coast

[tolakram]

[WeatherCat]

Houston Channel 2 Britta Merwin just showed the NHC update info during the 11 to 11:30am newscast, along with the GFS, Euro and "their model". She said "their model" was predicting a Brownsville landfall and that was a still a possibility. I understand that things are fluid, but does anyone know what "their model" is? Does anyone feel this is going to Brownsville instead of the middle coast? I was astounded when she said it, given the critical nature of communications about this system.

[South Texas Storms]

Houston Channel 2 Britta Merwin just showed the NHC update info during the 11 to 11:30am newscast, along with the GFS, Euro and "their model". She said "their model" was predicting a Brownsville landfall and that was a still a possibility. I understand that things are fluid, but does anyone know what "their model" is? Does anyone feel this is going to Brownsville instead of the middle coast? I was astounded when she said it, given the critical nature of communications about this system.

I think it's the RPM model, which tv mets like to use.

[1900hurricane]

Guidance QPF reminds me of some demonic love child between Beulah '67 and Allison '01.