ATL: HARVEY - Models

[NDG]

Ha! 12z Euro initialized Harvey at 998mb, I guess it intensity forecat will be too weak at landfall.

[KWT]

HWRF looks too weak, HMON looks like it has woke up and now dropping Harvery down to 928mbs, so well into the big boys league (aka, Carla,Celia, Bret, Anita) in terms of strength in west Gulf.

[Tireman4]

I see that the crappy CMC finally decided to go with the Euro solution, piece of crap it is. Sorry again for hurting the feelings to those that follow that model

But we love the Crazy Uncle Canadian

Hope just when we need a good laugh and not take it that serious

Nope, did not..

[KWT]

ECM not even in the ballpark with Harvey in terms of intensity. It is also to the left of most of the other models from the looks of things, but hard to take too much notice of it now in are in very short range and clearly this thing is behaving very differently to what the ECM thinks.

[NDG]

12z Euro shifted a little to right, now near Corpus Christi landfall Saturday morning.

[stormlover2013]

More towards matagorda

[tolakram]

[HouTXmetro]

Likely hood of Hurricane warning extending to Freeport?

[p1nheadlarry]

Intensity likely off with ECMWF but I'm more interested in the track, much more complicated. All of us watching Harvey know it's going to be a serious hurricane, likely ending the US major drought.

[tolakram]

Very little movement between 48 and 72 hours. (Confirmed via Weatherbell plots)

[Steve]

There is a lot of momentum with the forward speed and trajectory of the ECMWF. I don't see that stopping or slowing very fast the way it's going in. We'll see where it goes from here.

[Ivanhater]

Oh Dear God..Euro basically stalls a major at landfall for 24 hours

[ronjon]

Euro stops harvey dead in his tracks at the coastline from 48 to 72 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=scus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2017082412&fh=48

[OntarioEggplant]

I am not sure we can trust any model handling the stalling well

[JPmia]

Oh Dear God..Euro basically stalls a major at landfall for 24 hours

That is a nightmare.

[KWT]

Yep very little motion once it makes landfall, probably close enough to the coast to slow the weakening speed, I'm wondering have we ever had a major cane actually weaken and stall either by the coast or on the coast?

Whilst I can't buy the intensity from ECM, it is still interesting to see where it takes it...my gut is the system will be deep enough to latch onto a weak steering current to take it away from the coast and eCM doesn't have it deep enough to feel those steering currents.

[Frank P]

There is a lot of momentum with the forward speed and trajectory of the ECMWF. I don't see that stopping or slowing very fast the way it's going in. We'll see where it goes from here.

I don't think hurricanes have momentum per se.. they hit a source of high pressure or no steering currents.. they are going to stop every time.. just my opinion..

[Ivanhater]

Euro back over water moving east...almost doesn't make landfall...this is insane!

[NDG]

12z Euro is not good at all for TX & LA!!!

[ROCK]

um Matagorda? that seems to right..stalls at coast? WTH!! I did mention it would be a race to the coast before steering collapses...this would suck bad.