ATL: HARVEY - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Oh Dear God..Euro basically stalls a major at landfall for 24 hours

A stronger, slower Frances

[South Texas Storms]

Euro is a good bit farther east compared to the latest GFS, UKMET, and Canadian, which all have it getting inland pretty good over south Texas.

[HurricaneBrain]

Aric mentioned this possibility in the discussions thread earlier...

Euro back over water moving east...almost doesn't make landfall...this is insane!

[tolakram]

[Nimbus]

At 96 hours its intensified to 969 mbs and is moving east.
Thats the reverse of hurricane Elena and shows that our model guidance is still lacking skill.
I'm wondering if this run had a better initialization with the lower pressures, could be a new trend?

[stormreader]

Very little movement between 48 and 72 hours. (Confirmed via Weatherbell plots)

Okay now, my very unofficial forecast of a slowing in the Texas coastal waters, then a move NE toward the Sabine Pass Tex-La border may not be dead yet. I was waiting to see if the Euro would "rethink" the penetration into the coast and backing out again. It has!! If this is the case, that location and stall (terrible as it is for the Corpus area) would represent the furthest west point of the storm. This would also have ramifications further down the line for Louisiana. It would mean less weakening of the storm than the GFS model.

[KWT]

At 96 hours its intensified to 969 mbs and is moving east.
Thats the reverse of hurricane Elena and shows that our model guidance is still lacking skill.

Its certainly denting the confidence of the model consensus that is for sure. I'd say the likelyhood is the ECM is not right at the moment given the models all basically follow the same pattern now, but its certainly a strong outlier that needs close watching.

[ROCK]

wow just wow...been around to see some crazy runs but wow....hard to go against the EURO in the like the NOW range...

[gatorcane]

rakes the entire Texas coastline.

[1900hurricane]

12Z ECMWF has Wilma Yucatan landfall type rainfall totals.

[OntarioEggplant]

So the Euro has Austin getting 4 inches of rain, while the GFS has us getting 21.

Sigh.

[tolakram]

It's hugging the coast moving NE. I hate these overly dramatic model runs, somethings got to give ... I hope.

[HurricaneBrain]

That's a category 3 hurricane right at SETX/SWLA...

:eek:

[drezee]

I truly pray that the Euro is wrong

[PTrackerLA]

I don't even know what to say right now. Euro down to 945 at 120 hours...

[longhornweather]

So the Euro has Austin getting 4 inches of rain, while the GFS has us getting 21.

Sigh.

Just a bit of a spread there...

[PTrackerLA]

Just imagine the storm surge from Corpus to Louisiana

[KWT]

ECM is obviously a big hit on its 2nd landfall, but bare in mind if it does stall overland its core will get wrecked and these systems on second approaches rarely get as strong as the models think they will.

Still what a disaster if the ECM TRACK is correct (ignore intensity, its too far out at 1st to take seriously...) and a second major hurricane landfall would be terrible news...and its certainly an option still in play, even if IMO the risk is pretty low for now.

[txwatcher91]

Euro track actually makes a lot of sense. In weak steering patterns where there is little to no direction, other forces like frictional effects from land can take over and slowly steer a storm up the coastline, like the Euro indicates. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that happens and the 12km/32km NAM have hinted at this scenario occurring for a few days now also.

[ROCK]

I don't even know what to say right now. Euro down to 945 at 120 hours...

that is cat 3 range 940+ish...wow south of Galveston...definitely feel some winds up in here if the EURO verifies...