ATL: HARVEY - Models

[tolakram]

Comes ashore just east of the TX/LA border. At least it's moving faster at this point but there's a lot of hours between these frames.

[Ivanhater]

Major hurricane into Louisiana ....models showing northern gulf coast getting pounded by this

[MGC]

If that EURO run verifies.....a disaster of epic proportions......MGC

[tolakram]

[Tree]

Comes ashore just east of the TX/LA border. At least it's moving faster at this point but there's a lot of hours between these frames.

I am in Alexandria and am not liking this scenario at all.

[cajungal]

That would be like Hurricane Audrey part 2. Praying this don't verify.

[South Texas Storms]

With today's 12z runs, the Euro is the only model showing the significant storm into Louisiana (the most eastern solution). The model consensus has this getting far enough inland into TX to weaken it considerably.

[tolakram]

Moves right over me.

[ronjon]

With today's 12z runs, the Euro is the only model showing the significant storm into Louisiana (the most eastern solution). The model consensus has this getting far enough inland into TX to weaken it considerably.

it's not an implausible solution with steering currents becoming weak - it might wind up we'll have to real time watch to know exactly how far inland it goes unfortunately.

[hd44]

With today's 12z runs, the Euro is the only model showing the significant storm into Louisiana (the most eastern solution). The model consensus has this getting far enough inland into TX to weaken it considerably.

Ecmwf solution gaining traction with support of the Jma though not as far east.

[tolakram]

The GFS / EURO blend stalls this inland near Corpus Christi and now with the Euro even closer to shore I have to think this may in fact remain inland, though still causing massive flooding issues.

[HurricaneBrain]

Bastardi keeps his prediction
 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/900790532225605633

[ROCK]

EURO in the almost NOW range is a very good bet on any table....this years GFS not so much...wow would not have thought the EURO would change.....JB had this same scenario almost yesterday...

[PTrackerLA]

If the GFS moves towards the EURO all I can say is we're about to witness history.

[Nederlander]

EURO in the almost NOW range is a very good bet on any table....this years GFS not so much...wow would not have thought the EURO would change.....JB had this same scenario almost yesterday...

Yes he did. Didn't think it was plausible given the consensus on models bringing Harvey further inland, but with the latest Euro run, all bets are off. Slowing of forward speed as it approaches the coast will be something to keep an eye on. We will have to see if this trend continues with the Euro and if there are any other takers.

[ROCK]

If the GFS moves towards the EURO all I can say is we're about to witness history.

yes...

[South Texas Storms]

If the GFS moves towards the EURO all I can say is we're about to witness history.

And if the opposite happens...what a decent win for the upgraded GFS.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is much in line with the 00z EPS.

I posted earlier that the 00z EPS were much more bullish going into SWLA

[Tireman4]

I....I....I...I have no words....about the Euro run..

[caneman]

That Euro run and strength would be like threading a needle in the dark. The chances of that kind of run and strength would be unlikely. Either track and or strength would likely be off. Let's hope at least