ATL: HARVEY - Models

[wxmann_91]

The shelf waters off the TX coast will be significantly upwelled after the first landfall. Don't see it restrengthening as the Euro depicts.

[Rgv20]

Thru 48hr the 12zECMWF and GFS are virtually identical as far as the track with Harvey. Landfall just north of Corpus Christi .

[lsuhurricane]

12z GFS Ensembles are highly aligned with Euro

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS will be interesting. However if the Euro is right and the GFS is wrong, it usually takes the GFS a couple of runs to adjust towards the Euro. By that time Harvey could already be making landfall. So if I were a SETX/SWLA resident, I would prepare anyway.

[Portastorm]

Does anyone know if the Euro has access and uses data gathered by the NOAA planes?

[srainhoutx]

Does anyone know if the Euro has access and uses data gathered by the NOAA planes?

Yes

[South Texas Storms]

HRRR seems to indicate a track closer to the Canadian and 3km NAM in Deep South TX.

[Airboy]

If I could bet, I would bet that it stays away from a land fall sw of Houston, makes a land fall somewhere NE of Houston/West of NO.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS control so far is a carbon copy of the operational Euro through day 4. Now over water, heading NE towards SWLA at the same time raking the Texas coast line.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS control might not make it into Louisiana. Moving NNE and looks to be a Galveston landfall soon.

Yup, it's a Houston/Galveston landfall in 150 hours as a strong hurricane.

[hicksta]

12z EPS might not make it into Louisiana. Moving NNE and looks to be a Galveston landfall soon.

Yup, it's a Houston/Galveston landfall in 150 hours as a strong hurricane.

Can you post the link?

[Rockin4NOLA]

On that Euro run, how much rain does that show for New Orleans area.....we/I might be toast.

[Big O]

HRRR seems to indicate a track closer to the Canadian and 3km NAM in Deep South TX.

How reliable is the HRRR since we are, in essence, now-tracking?

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS might not make it into Louisiana. Moving NNE and looks to be a Galveston landfall soon.

Yup, it's a Houston/Galveston landfall in 150 hours as a strong hurricane.

Can you post the link?

Not allowed at the moment due to copyrights since it's paid content. I think Ryan Maue will post them soon and you'll be able to see them.

[WAcyclone]

12z EPS might not make it into Louisiana. Moving NNE and looks to be a Galveston landfall soon.

Yup, it's a Houston/Galveston landfall in 150 hours as a strong hurricane.

Do you mean the control run? I am pretty sure the 12z EPS is still showing a wide range of possible outcomes...

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS might not make it into Louisiana. Moving NNE and looks to be a Galveston landfall soon.

Yup, it's a Houston/Galveston landfall in 150 hours as a strong hurricane.

Do you mean the control run? I am pretty sure the 12z EPS is still showing a wide range of possible outcomes...

Yeah it's the control which I feel is a very good mean and has the most agreement with the deterministic model. Of course there are other members who show different outcomes.

[Rgv20]

HRRR seems to indicate a track closer to the Canadian and 3km NAM in Deep South TX.

It seems like all the High Resolution short range models are indicating a more southern track but it seems that something is wrong, maybe the high resolution of the short range models is messing them up or they are no good for Tropical Cyclones

[Kingarabian]

If we're going to go with individual ensemble runs, there are more members showing Harvey remaining over Mexico after the Texas landfall than ever before.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro ensembles strongly agree with OP...

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS summary:

- EPS control is very close to the op Euro but it shows a landfall over SE Texas versus SW Louisiana.
- EPS mean remains concentrated between SETexas SWLouisiana.