ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

I remember Bob Sheets saying how storms will drop pressure quickly then level off before next big pressure drop. Next few hrs will be something to watch.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, typically once they open their eyes you'll see a decent pressure drop with these systems.

With that being said it hasn't got the greatest IR presentation on that southern side, looking a little squished.

Give it some time, we are at DMIN right now which is slowing things down a bit. Tonight will be a different story, pressure leveling off as expected before a big sudden drop occurs. I wouldn't be surprised to see this sub 920 by tomorrow morning and cat 4/5 winds.

Diurnal cycles have a less effect on developed hurricanes.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/cfhc/status/900816260807540736

[Kingarabian]

You need time and near perfect conditions to get a Cat.5 and a sub 900mb pressure. Harvey has neither.

lol Time? Wilma went from like a cat 1/2 in the evening to a Cat 5 in like 12 hours.

Time and conditions go hand in hand.

Harvey needs time to re-establish better flow from the south if ever.

[meriland29]

Is there a chance that this will drop down to the 880 pressure range, or will it stay above 900? I know a pressure of 900 would be catastrophic and could cause this system to bomb out even more than expected, but if somehow it drops below 900 I think this will be the most costly storm in history.

IMO, possibly. There is talk that this storm could reach below 940 tonight, which is a significant drop. Keep a eye on the dry air/shear to see if more mixes in with the storm, or if it is a tiny nuisance that will quickly be circulated out of the storm. So far, it seems the storms persistence overshadows any attempts by shear. By tomorrow morning, if it looks to keep up the shedding of MB hourly and is around 930 or lower, then it would be worrisome of getting under 900 IMO. Systems are weird, I have never seen one ramp up consistently for a day, or days like that..usually they peter off within a few hours...sometime cause of shear, land interaction (Cuba, islands), or simply because it just doesn't seem to want to continue the trend... and usually this all occurs at night for some reason. However, because of this specific ones placement (warm gulf waters) and the fact it is effecting the storm so quickly and drastically..well, it is a big deal.

[alan1961]

Just a quick question, is there any good websites that are streaming the news about this at the moment? Appreciate it maybe a little early for 24hrs round coverage.

http://foxsanantonio.com/live/event

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems to be getting it's act together as we speak. Nice cold tower circling the eye right now.

[txwatcher91]

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if that happens, typically once they open their eyes you'll see a decent pressure drop with these systems.

With that being said it hasn't got the greatest IR presentation on that southern side, looking a little squished.

Give it some time, we are at DMIN right now which is slowing things down a bit. Tonight will be a different story, pressure leveling off as expected before a big sudden drop occurs. I wouldn't be surprised to see this sub 920 by tomorrow morning and cat 4/5 winds.

Diurnal cycles have a less effect on developed hurricanes.

And this one is in the early stages of being a hurricane, it usually has a pretty significant impact still on storms under cat 3 intensity. With this being a 80mph cane right now, the diurnal cycle will probably boost it a good bit tonight, in addition to hitting some of the highest TCHP by morning.

[GCANE]

:uarrow: Fairly shallow from the south GCANE. CDO needs to expand and outflow to the south has to establish itself or else dry air will poke its nose.

I wish they would do a high-altitude drop around 23N 96W.

[MississippiWx]

The eye is getting ready to clear out as we speak on visible imagery. While the pressure may not be falling as fast right now, the core looks better. When the eye pops, more deepening will occur.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/900813288514170881

So cool!!!!

[KWT]

The eye is getting ready to clear out as we speak on visible imagery. While the pressure may not be falling as fast right now, the core looks better. When the eye pops, more deepening will occur.

Yeah there is a nice little ring of convection that has jsut blown up right over the eye.

Still I kind of see what a few are saying, the southern side of the system isn't the greatest, though I have seen system look like this and still power through cat 3/4 status.

[tolakram]

[South Texas Storms]

The eye looks to be tracking just south of northwest based on the latest radar and satellite imagery.

[NDG]

[Red eye]

It looks like Harvey is already at the 25000Z forecast point. Those are 12 hour points right? Going faster than expected. That might lend to landfall and meandering inland for longer before heading back into the gulf solution.

[Javlin]

The eye looks to be tracking just south of northwest based on the latest radar and satellite imagery.

Really looking more NW now.

[NDG]

The eye looks to be tracking just south of northwest based on the latest radar and satellite imagery.

Not according to the recon's fixes, unless you are watching a wobble during the past hour.

[KWT]

The eye looks to be tracking just south of northwest based on the latest radar and satellite imagery.

Pretty much moving along the track at the moment it has to be said.

Anyway nice convective burst rotating around the eye from the west side at the moment, look for the next round of pressure falls coming up soon.

[HurricaneBrain]

INIT 24/2100Z 24.7N 93.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 25.5N 94.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.7N 96.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 27.8N 96.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1800Z 28.7N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 28.5N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1800Z 29.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

[Kingarabian]

As soon as the eye clears out the pressure will be in the 970-960 range.