ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2421 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:54 pm

Just when it starts to look better, a bunch of dry air into the center it appears.

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2422 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:55 pm

KWT wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:SW/S/SE quads still irritating me:



Yeah its still not great, however its well worth noting that the inner core is the best is looked all day and really that is what counts in terms of the intensity. I've seen some questionable systems be much stronger than you'd expect due to having a tight inner core.

(I seem to remember a SPAC system that barely had any convection outside of its inner CDO core and a small feeder band and it was a decent cat-4, you'd never have thought it though looking at the overall package.


Think that SPAC system had a thicker CDO.

Harvey's CDO needs some work if we're assessing intensity based on satellite:

Image

I do agree that it's looking better though.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2423 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:55 pm

Thought maybe the smaller eye would make it easier to track but it seems to have a slow trachoidal movement that takes several hours to average.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2424 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:55 pm

Where did that dry air come from?
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: edited, language!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2425 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:57 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Where did that dry air come from?


SW has always been dry but a couple of apparent bursts of mid level shear helped push some in. That's my amateur analysis looking at cloud flows. Tops of smaller thunderstorms on the SW side flowing into center while high outflow stationary or slowly moving west. Dry air near the storm generally not a big issue if there's little to no shear present.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2426 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:58 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Where did that dry air come from?


Dry air is entrained within the core. It can be obscured when hot towers go off.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2427 Postby SoupBone » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:58 pm

GCANE wrote:That dry slot to the SW has a nice chunk of 3500 CAPE air in it.

http://i.imgur.com/lnIzpJW.jpg



Can you explain this? This is well beyond my understanding.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2428 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:01 pm

A lot of rain around but it's all to my north and south in bands. Nothing here yet but you can hear thunder from time to time.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2429 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:01 pm

jdjaguar wrote:
GCANE wrote:That dry slot to the SW has a nice chunk of 3500 CAPE air in it.


I gather 3500 CAPE air adds energy to this intensifying storm?

Forgive my naivety, what exactly is CAPE air, if you don't mind my asking?


CAPE is a quantitative measure of how unstable the air is which would fire off a thunderstorm.
About the highest value I have seen is 5000.
CAPE can be high and there can be no thunderstorms if there is no forced lifting of air parcels like low-level convergence.
If there is some sort of forced lifting, then thunderstorms can be very intense if CAPE is on the upper end of the scale.
Tornado chasers look at this very closely and watch cells that move into high CAPE areas.

Here is a link to get started.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convectiv ... ial_energy
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2430 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:03 pm

The inflow is growing and starting to draw some drier air in off Mexico but that is usually temporary it the eye stays small. Could take a big gulp of dry air as it approaches the coast of Texas which would help but you can't forecast that.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2431 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:03 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2432 Postby hd44 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:03 pm

Recon will probably find a major hurricane when they go back out there. This is look impressive right now.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2433 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:04 pm

Eye of Harvey starting to get in range of the long range radar of Brownsville.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2434 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:04 pm

SoupBone wrote:
GCANE wrote:That dry slot to the SW has a nice chunk of 3500 CAPE air in it.

http://i.imgur.com/lnIzpJW.jpg



Can you explain this? This is well beyond my understanding.


Check my other response.
Its basically high-energy fuel that needs something to uncork it.
Likely it will wrap into Harvey and create a convective burst / hot tower.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2435 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:05 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2436 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:05 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Eye of Harvey starting to get in range of the long range radar of Brownsville.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


Yep I'm seeing a west-northwest to northwest motion right now.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2437 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:06 pm

hd44 wrote:Recon will probably find a major hurricane when they go back out there. This is look impressive right now.




Based on satellite I'd say 85 knots at most. Give it another 8 hours.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2438 Postby hd44 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:06 pm


Same thing I am seeing. Towers exploding around the small eye. I think recon is gona find some bad news when it gets there .
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2439 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:07 pm

yayyy radar range !
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2440 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:07 pm

Find it interesting all the maps that the Weather Channel is showing is further North of Corpus Christi, showing current tidal rises all the way to High Island, Texas, and now showing the Storm Surge Potential is all the way to Morgan City, La.
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