
ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Just when it starts to look better, a bunch of dry air into the center it appears.


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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
KWT wrote:Kingarabian wrote:SW/S/SE quads still irritating me:
Yeah its still not great, however its well worth noting that the inner core is the best is looked all day and really that is what counts in terms of the intensity. I've seen some questionable systems be much stronger than you'd expect due to having a tight inner core.
(I seem to remember a SPAC system that barely had any convection outside of its inner CDO core and a small feeder band and it was a decent cat-4, you'd never have thought it though looking at the overall package.
Think that SPAC system had a thicker CDO.
Harvey's CDO needs some work if we're assessing intensity based on satellite:

I do agree that it's looking better though.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Thought maybe the smaller eye would make it easier to track but it seems to have a slow trachoidal movement that takes several hours to average.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Where did that dry air come from?
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: edited, language!
Reason: edited, language!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneRyan wrote:Where did that dry air come from?
SW has always been dry but a couple of apparent bursts of mid level shear helped push some in. That's my amateur analysis looking at cloud flows. Tops of smaller thunderstorms on the SW side flowing into center while high outflow stationary or slowly moving west. Dry air near the storm generally not a big issue if there's little to no shear present.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneRyan wrote:Where did that dry air come from?
Dry air is entrained within the core. It can be obscured when hot towers go off.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:That dry slot to the SW has a nice chunk of 3500 CAPE air in it.
http://i.imgur.com/lnIzpJW.jpg
Can you explain this? This is well beyond my understanding.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
A lot of rain around but it's all to my north and south in bands. Nothing here yet but you can hear thunder from time to time.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
jdjaguar wrote:GCANE wrote:That dry slot to the SW has a nice chunk of 3500 CAPE air in it.
I gather 3500 CAPE air adds energy to this intensifying storm?
Forgive my naivety, what exactly is CAPE air, if you don't mind my asking?
CAPE is a quantitative measure of how unstable the air is which would fire off a thunderstorm.
About the highest value I have seen is 5000.
CAPE can be high and there can be no thunderstorms if there is no forced lifting of air parcels like low-level convergence.
If there is some sort of forced lifting, then thunderstorms can be very intense if CAPE is on the upper end of the scale.
Tornado chasers look at this very closely and watch cells that move into high CAPE areas.
Here is a link to get started.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convectiv ... ial_energy
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
The inflow is growing and starting to draw some drier air in off Mexico but that is usually temporary it the eye stays small. Could take a big gulp of dry air as it approaches the coast of Texas which would help but you can't forecast that.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Recon will probably find a major hurricane when they go back out there. This is look impressive right now.
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- Rgv20
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Eye of Harvey starting to get in range of the long range radar of Brownsville.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:GCANE wrote:That dry slot to the SW has a nice chunk of 3500 CAPE air in it.
http://i.imgur.com/lnIzpJW.jpg
Can you explain this? This is well beyond my understanding.
Check my other response.
Its basically high-energy fuel that needs something to uncork it.
Likely it will wrap into Harvey and create a convective burst / hot tower.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
So far dry air not a problem. New hot towers firing and convection spreading back out.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=25&lon=-94&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=25&lon=-94&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Rgv20 wrote:Eye of Harvey starting to get in range of the long range radar of Brownsville.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Yep I'm seeing a west-northwest to northwest motion right now.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
hd44 wrote:Recon will probably find a major hurricane when they go back out there. This is look impressive right now.
Based on satellite I'd say 85 knots at most. Give it another 8 hours.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
tolakram wrote:So far dry air not a problem. New hot towers firing and convection spreading back out.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=25&lon=-94&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92
Same thing I am seeing. Towers exploding around the small eye. I think recon is gona find some bad news when it gets there .
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
yayyy radar range !
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Find it interesting all the maps that the Weather Channel is showing is further North of Corpus Christi, showing current tidal rises all the way to High Island, Texas, and now showing the Storm Surge Potential is all the way to Morgan City, La.
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