ATL: HARVEY - Models

[tolakram]

GFS continues trapped and fade while Euro goes with bounce and east.

[Kingarabian]

Weaker overland compared to the 12z GFS:

[HurricaneBrain]

Looks to be spending less time inland and entering the Gulf more quickly on this run...

[stormreader]

GFS continues trapped and fade while Euro goes with bounce and east.

Sounds funny, but the bounce factor always figured into my thinking. As an important storm approaches a coast at a steep angle (almost parallel) if steering currents or weak, it may tend to "bounce" or acclimate itself to the path of least resistance, so to speak, by remaining in the coastal waters. To push inland creates more friction. Steering currents have to be weak for this to occur. I have been factoring this in to my thinking.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS: about splash back down into GOM waters:

[tolakram]

Deepening near water. 1000 down to 998.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS just off the coast:



Barely moving. Each run from these models and the flooding seems to get worse.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is further east.

[Kingarabian]

18Z GFS moving back west @ hour 120:

[KWT]

GFS is over the gulf again briefly.

Meandering I think is the phrase I'd would use, right on the Texas coast. Only would need a 30-50 mile shift and it spends a solid day or two over water again.

[BRweather]

This where the GFS comes into question. It really looks like it and the ecmwf have almost exact same 500mb patterns, but the gfs insists it being stuck on the coast.

It just seems confused on where to move it. It's consistent, but seeing the NAM, HWRF, CMC and ECMWF move offshore quicker makes me thing GFS is lost for a couple days.

[lrak]

So the same area will get hit twice within 24 hours by the same system? Has that ever occurred?

[Kingarabian]

Basically flooding the heck out of southern Texas.

[Red eye]

Dancing in Matagorda. GFS has been showing that dance consistently the last couple of days.

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS sends it back northwest towards central Texas in 144 hours. Similar to today's 12z UKMET run.

[Frank P]

wondering if it is going to do a double loop... stay tuned...

[Frank P]

moving NE well inland and not along the coast at H162

[SoupBone]

moving NE well inland and not along the coast at H162

Is this due to a degrading of the ridge?

[South Texas Storms]

18z HMNON is down to 915mb in 18 hours heading towards the Lower Texas Coast.

[Frank P]

moving NE well inland and not along the coast at H162

Is this due to a degrading of the ridge?

Ridge looks strong but ridge to east looks perhaps a littler stronger than previous run, looks like a pretty even battle though