ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2461 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:27 pm

Someone a lot smarter than me sees continued improvement. :)

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/900845641752039425


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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2462 Postby gfsperpendicular » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:28 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:The central pressure might have down to 970 mb or even lower. Let's wait for the next 23z recon data.

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Hot tower right in the NW eyewall. Is the 3500 CAPE air wrapping into the core?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2463 Postby lrak » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:30 pm

The long range radar out of Brownsville makes it look like it's moving WNW. Is that because of the angle its catching the tops which may be moving WNW but the LLC is still moving NNW?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2464 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:30 pm

tolakram wrote:My guess is same intensity or just a bit stronger. It's been fighting some dry air and lost a lot of convection before rebuilding it.


I really dont think its dry air. I have been looking at whatever data I can find and there is nothing that indicates dry air. to me it looks like normal convective patterns when you have large hot towers and a developing cores.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2465 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:32 pm

My guess is about 972.. 90 maybe 95 mph at the beginning of the mission.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2466 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:32 pm

lrak wrote:The long range radar out of Brownsville makes it look like it's moving WNW. Is that because of the angle its catching the tops which may be moving WNW but the LLC is still moving NNW?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


No I think the center has generally been tracking more WNW over the past few hours. Looks that way on satellite too.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2467 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:33 pm

lrak wrote:The long range radar out of Brownsville makes it look like it's moving WNW. Is that because of the angle its catching the tops which may be moving WNW but the LLC is still moving NNW?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


It does look on the satellites imagery its been averaging a shade over WNW over the last couple of hours, and indeed the models did show this would happen, they then lift it near NW/NNW in the final 5-10hrs before landfall.

Aric, looked like a dry moat caused by subsidence from the hot towers blowing up in the inner eyewall. As I said eventually a big blow-up will hold and that moat will be filled in to give it a real classic high end hurricane look.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2468 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:33 pm

The most recent F-16 pass makes me think that Harvey is nearly a lock for an eventual major hurricane.

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2469 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:37 pm

Saw a pic on another site where the lightning is just crazy in the eyewall.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2470 Postby Javlin » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:38 pm

Why is Harvey so flat on the W/side? what wall is out there?I only see what I think is a weak ULL in Mexico to the W but then something is moving across the SW also?I am terrible at spotting High Pressure!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2471 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:39 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Saw a pic on another site where the lightning is just crazy in the eyewall.


Yeah I saw that as well, impressive blow-up rotating around the western side of the eyewall, my guess is it will be rotating into the eastern quadrant as recon arrives.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2472 Postby bohaiboy » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:39 pm

There are indeed rig and platform evacuations in the western GOM. https://www.dallasnews.com/business/ene ... orm-harvey
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2473 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:41 pm

1900hurricane wrote:The most recent F-16 pass makes me think that Harvey is nearly a lock for an eventual major hurricane.

Image
They are flying f-16s into harvey?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2474 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:42 pm

There haven't been many times in the past few years where we needed recon constantly in a system, This is one time we surely do. Please please pleaseeee let the planes have NO com problems or mechanical problems. Hats off to those guys and gals!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2475 Postby alan1961 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:42 pm

Space station goes right over Harvey :wink:

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Last edited by alan1961 on Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2476 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:42 pm

any one have Jeff Linders email update?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2477 Postby ronyan » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:42 pm

They are flying f-16s into harvey?


Fighters are used to knock out those hot towers before they get too strong.
Last edited by ronyan on Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2478 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:42 pm

Overshooting tops obscuring the eye:


Image
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2479 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:43 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:The most recent F-16 pass makes me think that Harvey is nearly a lock for an eventual major hurricane.

Image
They are flying f-16s into harvey?

As a military nerd, this is the exact same thing I thought, lol. I would hate to fly a little jet fighter into a hurricane, lol.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2480 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Overshooting tops obscuring the eye:




A real big one has just gone up on the NW eyewall that is firing alot of lightning as well, this maybe the one that kicks start the next stage of rapid strengthening and takes us down into the 940s in the next 6-9hrs.
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