ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

Since 11AM today it has moved 1'N and 1'W now how do they measure the location?Do they use a purposed center? A W/eyewall and N/eyewall?Just asking sometimes the sat presentation what we see and what they give us does not always jive.I like it when an EW appears but still not always perfect.

[TheAustinMan]

A look at radar for Hurricane Harvey. Radar is out of KBRO in Brownsville.

[hriverajr]

Sure seems that way, I'm wondering whether the big convective bursts that keep triggering in the NW quad are helping to tug the center further west than the background synoptics would suggest?

Yeah I think that is the reason why it keeps tracking at a more west-northwesterly direction. Very strong convection keeps firing in the western quadrant.

It's very noticeable. I bet the cows in Kenedy County are getting restless. this would make me more worried in corpus too...

Actually initially visiting the cows would be one of the best outcomes..(of the many bad)

[BRweather]

Being that overnight yesterday was Harvey's biggest improvement, I would look for the same thing this evening. I would expect a more impressive storm in 6-8 hours time.

Also I think when those storms start rotating on the east side that it could sway that center back to the north some. Although the general motion does look NW. I am not seeing much WNW movement. Maybe a brief second when those storms blew up on west side.

[jaguars_22]

We are going to ride it out in Victoria, I see radar has it wobbling west it may go in south of corpus and spare us the wind??

[NDG]

974mb from VDM

URNT12 KNHC 250014
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092017
A. 24/23:44:30Z
B. 24 deg 54 min N
094 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2866 m
D. 67 kt
E. 046 deg 7 nm
F. 141 deg 78 kt
G. 051 deg 10 nm
H. 974 mb
I. 12 C / 3055 m
J. 15 C / 3049 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN SSE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 1509A HARVEY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 78 KT 051 / 10 NM 23:41:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 220 / 9 KT
;

[NDG]

Being that overnight yesterday was Harvey's biggest improvement, I would look for the same thing this evening. I would expect a more impressive storm in 6-8 hours time.

Also I think when those storms start rotating on the east side that it could sway that center back to the north some. Although the general motion does look NW. I am not seeing much WNW movement. Maybe a brief second when those storms blew up on west side.

And again tomorrow night is when I am looking for rapid intensification.

[TheStormExpert]

Being that overnight yesterday was Harvey's biggest improvement, I would look for the same thing this evening. I would expect a more impressive storm in 6-8 hours time.

Also I think when those storms start rotating on the east side that it could sway that center back to the north some. Although the general motion does look NW. I am not seeing much WNW movement. Maybe a brief second when those storms blew up on west side.

And again tomorrow night is when I am looking for rapid intensification.

I thought landfall was expected to be tomorrow night?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Notice quite a few posts looking @ Dvorak ADT, As a general rule of thumb i find
it a useless tool with intensifying systems. It can take a long time to catch up.

[davidiowx]

Appears that a lot of the convection is really firing off in the western part of the storm near the center.. could be consolidation but it may pull it more westward. Thoughts?

[South Texas Storms]

Appears that a lot of the convection is really firing off in the western part of the storm near the center.. could be consolidation but it may pull it more westward. Thoughts?

Yep that's what I think has been causing the more west-northwesterly motion over the past several hours. We'll see how much longer it persists.

[drewschmaltz]

I am disinterested in the "rain event" portion of hurricanes. I am also not here to worry about safety, there are systems in place for that information - I am here for the science - and as a fan of the storm, wanting it grow, break records, etc.

...HAVING SAID THAT...

I am extremely worried about the flooding from Harvey. If you are like me, concentrating on the winds, I believe you are missing the real danger here. People come on the forum and ask the opinion of users on matters as important as evacuation. IMHO that's a bad idea. And, particularly in this scenario where the threat of catastrophe is not just possible, but predicted by every model.

[Hammy]

Is there some dry air entrainment? It seems the convection is being prevented from wrapping around on the north side.

[GCANE]

200mb in the clear.

[weatherguy425]

Appears that a lot of the convection is really firing off in the western part of the storm near the center.. could be consolidation but it may pull it more westward. Thoughts?

Yep that's what I think has been causing the more west-northwesterly motion over the past several hours. We'll see how much longer it persists.

As others have mentioned, unsteady periods of northward [this case westward] movement are likely as it organizes. Interesting to note some new convection firing NE too. Also, some guidance did hint at a WNW motion prior to a more NNW motion within the final 6 hours before landfall; resulting in a strike further up the coast.

[galvestontx]

We are going to ride it out in Victoria, I see radar has it wobbling west it may go in south of corpus and spare us the wind??

I personally would not do what you are saying you are about to do. But I have a family I have to protect.

[Michele B]

Being that overnight yesterday was Harvey's biggest improvement, I would look for the same thing this evening. I would expect a more impressive storm in 6-8 hours time.

Also I think when those storms start rotating on the east side that it could sway that center back to the north some. Although the general motion does look NW. I am not seeing much WNW movement. Maybe a brief second when those storms blew up on west side.

And again tomorrow night is when I am looking for rapid intensification.

God, I hope NOT! It's already almost a Cat 2

[Kingarabian]

Is there some dry air entrainment? It seems the convection is being prevented from wrapping around on the north side.

We've been talking about it since the last advisory.

[GCANE]

High Theta-E air has now pretty much wrapped all the way around Harvey.

[ROCK]

974 and has yet to hit that warm eddy yet...if the core is sound it might RI again....JMO..