ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

At this rate, you guys will be back to calling the season a bust in an hour.

I seasoned cancelled as soon as I saw that pressure drop was only 4 mb since the last advisory and that the pressure was not at 965

Chances of cat3 have gone down but certainly not season cancelled.

Chances of a Cat 3 have DEFINITELY not gone down...Not one bit!

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't get a chance to post much these days, but think a little perspective is in order regarding the strengthening. Keep in mind the most ideal conditions for RI as shown by all of the guidance is tomorrow. This has plenty of time to reach Cat 3/4. Just go back to images from yesterday and see how far this storm has come.

Good to see you post ALhurricane, I always enjoy reading your insights.

[Kingarabian]

969mb this pass.

[RL3AO]

I wouldn't count this out yet. Looks like the convective burst has wrapped around and closed off the eyewall again.

An hour ago vs now.

[Blown Away]

I predict the Hurricane Warning is extended S to the border at next advisory... Just my opinion only!!!

[Frank P]

The CIMSS is a great illustrator of the stair climbing effect of a hurricane... thus a detailed look of the wobbles masterfully displayed... awesome loop!

[OntarioEggplant]

People need to stop posting nonsense about it not strengthening much anymore. Nearly every model has Harvey strengthening substantially tomorrow.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe winds up to 80kts?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I wouldn't count this out yet. Looks like the convective burst has wrapped around and closed off the eyewall again.

An hour ago vs now.

http://i.imgur.com/PzR7ru8.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/0FDYISL.jpg

Yes agree i think it was not fully closed off @500mb . Not a outflow problem.

[Blinhart]

Wow just imagine if he starts sucking in all of 92L, how large and strong this system can become.

[weatherguy425]

I don't get a chance to post much these days, but think a little perspective is in order regarding the strengthening. Keep in mind the most ideal conditions for RI as shown by all of the guidance is tomorrow. This has plenty of time to reach Cat 3/4. Just go back to images from yesterday and see how far this storm has come.

For the love of all things reasonable... a million times YES.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, 24 hours ago, this was a TD. 24 hours from now... who knows... could be a lot stronger, and still over water. Pressure has been steadily dropping all day.

[Kazmit]

Harvey has yet to reach the most favorable conditions and it has already ramped up quickly. 24 hours ago, Harvey was a depression. And it still has another 24 hours ahead.

[GCANE]

The fact you are not seeing an eye is that a massive tower fired off just before sunset and spewed out cirrus over the eye, masking it.

[Kingarabian]

People need to stop posting nonsense about it not strengthening much anymore. Nearly every model has Harvey strengthening substantially tomorrow.

Except for the ECMWF.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Well, 24 hours ago, this was a TD. 24 hours from now... who knows... could be a lot stronger, and still over water. Pressure has been steadily dropping all day.

If it keeps strengthening at this rate then 928 would be the MB tomorrow evening. So saying that this will no longer become a 3 is silly IMO.

[NWgeorgiastormdawg]

Looks like pressure may be dropping again.

AF307 Mission #15 into HARVEY
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 01:12 UTC Aug 25, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 25.00°N 94.40°W
Bearing: 297° at 249 kt
Altitude: 2907 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 25 kt at 185°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 969.9 mb

[Kingarabian]

How do the winds look like to you guys per the last recon pass? Still at 75kts or 80kts?

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane conditions completely surround the eye now with ~70 kt winds even in the SE quad.

[Aric Dunn]

radar showing a pretty solid closed eyewall.