ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Why is the storm struggling to strengthen? It seems to be in a perfect environment, but yet not taking off at all. Hmmm. Good news, or maybe some good news for Texas and LA.

It isn't.

16 hours ago the pressure was 995 mb
10 hours ago the pressure was 982 mb
7 hours ago the pressure was 979 mb
4 hours ago the pressure was 976 mb
an hour ago the pressure was 974 mb
now the pressure is about 972 mb.

[wxman57]

Winds have not responded to the pressure drop yet. Still around 75kts.

[OntarioEggplant]

People need to stop posting nonsense about it not strengthening much anymore. Nearly every model has Harvey strengthening substantially tomorrow.

Except for the ECMWF.

Which had already underestimated the intensity significantly by the time the run started coming out

[GCANE]

Hot off the Press:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 0:14Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 23:44:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°54'N 94°20'W (24.9N 94.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 209 statute miles (337 km) to the ESE (110°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,866m (9,403ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 141° at 78kts (From the SE at ~ 89.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south-southeast, SSE
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 78kts (~ 89.8mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (51°) from the flight level center at 23:41:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 9kts (From the SW at 10mph)

[TheStormExpert]

Is it possible due to it's large size that pressure resembles a major hurricane but winds never get higher than upper-end Cat.2 intensity a lot like Alex (2010)?

[Aric Dunn]

it is moving really slowly..

[cycloneye]

Look at this.971 mbs.

[txwatcher91]

Pressure pretty much holding steady. Once those storms wrap around the northern side and sustain you will see the CDO become quite symmetric, the pressure will crash and the eye will clear very fast. Some on here will once again be amazed at how quickly it is deepening. This is the pause before the run to cat 3 and higher.

[OntarioEggplant]

Is it possible due to it's large size that pressure resembles a major hurricane but winds never get higher than upper-end Cat.2 intensity a lot like Alex (2010)?

This really isn't that large of a system right now

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why is the storm struggling to strengthen? It seems to be in a perfect environment, but yet not taking off at all. Hmmm. Good news, or maybe some good news for Texas and LA.

It isn't.

16 hours ago the pressure was 995 mb
10 hours ago the pressure was 982 mb
7 hours ago the pressure was 979 mb
4 hours ago the pressure was 976 mb
an hour ago the pressure was 974 mb
now the pressure is about 972 mb.

Winds have stayed the same though, as WXman57 said below your post here.

[RL3AO]

Is it possible due to it's large size that pressure resembles a major hurricane but winds never get higher than upper-end Cat.2 intensity a lot like Alex (2010)?

It'll resemble a major hurricane because it will be a major hurricane. Likely with a sub 950 mb pressure.

[Kingarabian]

People need to stop posting nonsense about it not strengthening much anymore. Nearly every model has Harvey strengthening substantially tomorrow.

Except for the ECMWF.

Which had already underestimated the intensity significantly by the time the run started coming out

The Euro is almost always bad at initializing with correct intensity. That being said, I don't want to go off topic and create a model debate.

I think as Harvey gets closer to the coast it'll begin to get its act together more rapidly.

[SouthFLTropics]

A word of caution to anyone out there who is betting against Harvey undergoing RI prior to landfall. All you have to do is look at storms from the past to realize what potential is there. The first storm that came to my mind was Charley. Charley's strength caught many by surprise. Go on YouTube and lookup HurricaneTrack.com's Charley landfall video where they hid out under an overpass of I-75 as the eye went overhead. You could hear the anxiety in Mark's voice as Charley was battering them. Don't let your guard down and don't let Harvey fool you.

[RL3AO]

Winds have stayed the same though, as WXman57 said below your post here.

So? I define a storm as intensifying when its pressure drops. The laws of physics say the wind will increase barring an eyewall replacement.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Winds have stayed the same though, as WXman57 said below your post here.

So? I define a storm as intensifying when its pressure drops. The laws of physics say the wind will increase barring an eyewall replacement.

You are the MET, and you know more than I do. However, as far as category it hasn't moved since the upgrade to hurricane, but it has dropped in pressure quite a bit. How long will it take for winds to catch up?

[Aric Dunn]

Radar continues to improve..

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/900891866400526336

[bahamaswx]

Pressure has been dropping about 1mb/hour since morning. Pretty steady intensification.

[RL3AO]

How long will it take for winds to catch up?

No way to know. But if the pressure keeps falling, the winds will increase.

[GCANE]

Another perspective, rather than from the air.

Closest Buoy to the NE of Harvey.