ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

On the Euro not showing strengthening, it did--it drops pressure about 20mb over the next 48 hours. The problem is that the model had the initial pressure far too high.

[ColdMiser123]

Category 2 winds just above the surface in the SE eyewall.

[Kingarabian]

I'm happy that the dvorak satellite estimates are well in line with recon. Gives us greater confidence when we use them over in the Pacific.

[Blinhart]

Category 2 winds just above the surface in the SE eyewall.

So should be at least 85 Kts at the next advisory.

[RL3AO]

NE eyewall looking better by the hour (or by the minute with GOES-16).

[CrazyC83]

Category 2 winds just above the surface in the SE eyewall.

So should be at least 85 Kts at the next advisory.

Last set of data still supports 75 kt, although given the SFMR you might be able to argue for 80 kt.

[cycloneye]

I go with 80kts now but another pass is comming before advisory so let's wait.

[Hurricane Andrew]

To all the people saying that Harvey may not be as bad, only a cat 1 or 2, etc, I have two points to make, and two only.

1. Storms can RI very very fast, very very unexpectedly, very very close to land. The longer this thing takes to clear an eye, the longer before an EWRC becomes likely. In fact, I doubt we will see one before landfall, which means (IMO) a strengthening, rather than steady or weakening, hurricane at landfall.
2. Thinking a Cat 1 Harvey will be less dangerous than a Cat 3/4 Harvey is not only wrong, it is foolish. We are talking about two to three FEET of rain in some places. Emergency services will be next to nonexistent in harder hit areas. Underestimating this storm is a recipe from disaster.

Please, do not take any chances. I believe this WILL intensify, and it will soon.

Code: Select all

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[NDG]

If Harvey doesn't intensify, that only means that the Euro solution is likely to be more correct as it has a 975mb hurricane making landfall. It also means the Houston/Galveston area and SWLA could be at risk since what the Euro solution is also showing.

12z Euro has initiated at 998mb that's why it only showed 975mb at landfall, but still a nice drop.

[psyclone]

Seems like we've got a good shot of reaching category 2 intensity by the 5 am advisory.

[TexasF6]

I saw a concerning tweet from Ryan Maue about the HMON(18Z) model going insane on the prediction of strength. What do my ProMets think about this model run? Also, everyone in the path be safe, and my prayers go with you. New posters? Listen to the Moderators please. And please use the disclaimer mindfully as many people are here seeking information.






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[NDG]

Down another mb, eyewall is now closed.

URNT12 KNHC 250141
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092017
A. 25/01:18:40Z
B. 25 deg 02 min N
094 deg 28 min W
C. 700 mb 2861 m
D. 66 kt
E. 124 deg 10 nm
F. 215 deg 79 kt
G. 125 deg 11 nm
H. 973 mb
I. 11 C / 3065 m
J. 16 C / 3053 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 1509A HARVEY OB 10
MAX FL WIND 79 KT 125 / 11 NM 01:10:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 175 / 6 KT
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 121 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Kingarabian]

Eyewall is now closed again. Let's see if the eye can finally clear out.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Anyone have a link to radar?

[Aric Dunn]

Eyewall is now closed again. Let's see if the eye can finally clear out.

that was known from radar..

[NDG]

Overall heading is still NW, is just taking a few wobbles to WNW at times then NNW at other times just like the last couple of hours.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 1:41Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 1:18:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°02'N 94°28'W (25.0333N 94.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 198 statute miles (319 km) to the ESE (108°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,861m (9,386ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 215° at 79kts (From the SW at ~ 90.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (125°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 973mb (28.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,065m (10,056ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

[Aric Dunn]

Overall heading is still NW, is just taking a few wobbles to WNW at times then NNW at other times just like the last couple of hours.

and moving really slow now..

[Blown Away]

Is Harvey tightening up or is there some shear coming from the South?

[hd44]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/17082500AL0917_ships.txt
Ships has some shear ... which lowers rapid intensification potential. Anyway expect some gradual intensification and a cat 2/3 landfall.