ATL: HARVEY - Models

[ronjon]

Seems the ECM and UKMET have been most consistent on track. Yes as many have said, it will come down to a battle of high pressure systems. By this time tomorrow, we'll be glued to the radar watching each wobble as Harv approaches the coast.

[Nimbus]

The steering trough back west made it into New Mexico with some real dry air but unless Harvey stalled its not going to be a forecast changer. Just wobble watch tomorrow.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[Dean4Storms]

ECM and most of the EPS have been pretty much steadfast for many runs now bringing Harvey back out over the water as a fairly robust TC and then heading for western to central LA coast.

GFS has been all over the place.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/900880167979167746

[Frank P]

Corpus Christi better pray Harvey goes north of the city... That is what they were forecasting on their local news this afternoon as I was streaming it live... if it goes just south it would be catastrophic!

[Blinhart]

I have been thinking the whole time that it would go in N of CC if at all.

[Rgv20]

The 2 hurricane models HWRF and HMON bring Harvey close to deep South Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Looking at the 3hr increment forecast they are both doing pretty good on verifying the coordinates.


18zHMON with a 913mb full blown major hurricane


18zHWRF very similar to the HMON but only down to 940mb....

[Hurricane Andrew]

The fact that every single one of the models agree on, at a minimum, a SIGNIFICANT hurricane making landfall in a populated region, is quite disturbing. All but one have MAJOR impact. I really hope the TX government is ready for this, because we may be seeing the biggest disaster response operation since Sandy '12.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WHAM BAM NO THANYOU NAM wow still showing a potential cat5.






Big strengthening on approach it models.

[Portastorm]

The fact that every single one of the models agree on, at a minimum, a SIGNIFICANT hurricane making landfall in a populated region, is quite disturbing. All but one have MAJOR impact. I really hope the TX government is ready for this, because we may be seeing the biggest disaster response operation since Sandy '12.

I can assure you that we are. We've been working nonstop for 48 hours at least to coordinate and deploy resources and personnel. We are as ready as we can be.

[AubreyStorm]

‪Timelapse of WP-3D Orion #NOAA42 flying a pass through the eye of #HurricaneHarvey from west to east. Advisories at hurricanes.gov‬

‪ https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/sta ... 12/video/1‬

[Hurricane Andrew]

The fact that every single one of the models agree on, at a minimum, a SIGNIFICANT hurricane making landfall in a populated region, is quite disturbing. All but one have MAJOR impact. I really hope the TX government is ready for this, because we may be seeing the biggest disaster response operation since Sandy '12.

I can assure you that we are. We've been working nonstop for 48 hours at least to coordinate and deploy resources and personnel. We are as ready as we can be.

I didn't realize you worked with the TX gov't, lol. I am really glad to hear that. I have some [limited] training in disaster response and stuff, although my specialty is in first response, but I know enough to fear an event like this. Thank you for what you are doing, on the front lines against this storm.

[BRweather]

The 00z NAM is well east of the 18z

[tarheelprogrammer]

The 00z NAM is well east of the 18z

Further east this goes, then the better the chance it gets back into the GOM?

[Michele B]

The fact that every single one of the models agree on, at a minimum, a SIGNIFICANT hurricane making landfall in a populated region, is quite disturbing. All but one have MAJOR impact. I really hope the TX government is ready for this, because we may be seeing the biggest disaster response operation since Sandy '12.

I can assure you that we are. We've been working nonstop for 48 hours at least to coordinate and deploy resources and personnel. We are as ready as we can be.

I wish all the citizens were working to prepare.



Just read on another blog of a family that is REFUSING to leave....the "child" (not sure how old) is on that forum wishing they were leaving.

[BRweather]

Looks like the 00z NAM is right in line with the 12 ECMWF in terms of the future of Harvey after first landfall.

This is Sunday at 12z for both models. Have to imagine NAM here is going to follow back out to sea.

[galveston-d]

The fact that every single one of the models agree on, at a minimum, a SIGNIFICANT hurricane making landfall in a populated region, is quite disturbing. All but one have MAJOR impact. I really hope the TX government is ready for this, because we may be seeing the biggest disaster response operation since Sandy '12.

I can assure you that we are. We've been working nonstop for 48 hours at least to coordinate and deploy resources and personnel. We are as ready as we can be.

I wish all the citizens were working to prepare.



Just read on another blog of a family that is REFUSING to leave....the "child" (not sure how old) is on that forum wishing they were leaving.

I have a long time friend there who works in public transport and told me he could not leave. He and his fellow bus drivers are helping to transport to safety all those who do not have a vehicle to do so. I hope they all are alright.

[Frank P]

H72 to H84 has OOZ NAM just off shore heading NE.. 998 falling pressure.. very similar to the last EURO run

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC 10p track


upload photo to web

[Hurricane Andrew]

The fact that every single one of the models agree on, at a minimum, a SIGNIFICANT hurricane making landfall in a populated region, is quite disturbing. All but one have MAJOR impact. I really hope the TX government is ready for this, because we may be seeing the biggest disaster response operation since Sandy '12.

I can assure you that we are. We've been working nonstop for 48 hours at least to coordinate and deploy resources and personnel. We are as ready as we can be.

I wish all the citizens were working to prepare.



Just read on another blog of a family that is REFUSING to leave....the "child" (not sure how old) is on that forum wishing they were leaving.

Oh brother. This stuff always ticks me off...if you are being advised to leave, leave! If you can't, reach out for help!