ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[davidiowx]

Overall heading is still NW, is just taking a few wobbles to WNW at times then NNW at other times just like the last couple of hours.

and moving really slow now..

What do you think about the slower moment of Harvey, and the impacts on the coastline, while looking into Arizona/NM and seeing that trof heading eastward?

[galaxy401]

With regards to shear, didn't Matthew rapidly intensify into a cat 5 in a moderate shear environment?

[Aric Dunn]

Overall heading is still NW, is just taking a few wobbles to WNW at times then NNW at other times just like the last couple of hours.

and moving really slow now..

What do you think about the slower moment of Harvey, and the impacts on the coastline, while looking into Arizona/NM and seeing that trof heading eastward?

its pretty much following the models and nhc forecast.. eitherway its not looking good..

[Hurricane Andrew]

With regards to shear, didn't Matthew rapidly intensify into a cat 5 in a moderate shear environment?

There are different types of shear, in terms of height, vector, etc, and they effect storms in different ways. Some may decapitate the circulation, while others may actually aid in forming poleward outflow and "ventilating" the storm. Heh, fire pun. Anyway, a Promet can give you the specifics, but yes, shear can both aid and hinder intensification, depending on a variety of factors.

[txwatcher91]

With regards to shear, didn't Matthew rapidly intensify into a cat 5 in a moderate shear environment?

There are different types of shear, in terms of height, vector, etc, and they effect storms in different ways. Some may decapitate the circulation, while others may actually aid in forming poleward outflow and "ventilating" the storm. Heh, fire pun. Anyway, a Promet can give you the specifics, but yes, shear can both aid and hinder intensification, depending on a variety of factors.

A good example of shear is Gert, it was under 30-40kts of shear last week as it strengthened into a category 2 hurricane. In the case of Gert the shear was actually aiding in divergence and outflow so it helped intensify it over somewhat cool 26C waters.

[weathernerdguy]

It's basically like how right before a front/trough takes a system away, the system intensifies before getting sheared because of the poleward outflow

[Kingarabian]

Which model had faster movement, the GFS or the Euro?

[txwatcher91]

Nice CDO is forming slowly, the southern half looks much better now and the northern half is beginning to see convection expand and wrap around. Rapid pressure drops should commence within a 2-3 hours now, imo.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Nice CDO is forming slowly, the southern half looks much better now and the northern half is beginning to see convection expand and wrap around. Rapid pressure drops should commence within a 2-3 hours now, imo.

I agree, although I am no Promet. Make sure you all are watching this thing using GOES16 imagery, it is truly a [scary] sight to behold.

[Kingarabian]

This should almost do it before the eye starts warming:

[CycloneGuru]

Link?

[codygo]

Hi guys

[Aric Dunn]

last hour or so there has definitely been a "turn" more to the nnw

[Hurricane Andrew]

Link?

To?

GOES16: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

[RL3AO]

This is a better bet now that it's close to the US.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-24-0

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... o1-13-24-1

[Aric Dunn]

This is a better bet now that it's close to the US.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-24-0

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... o1-13-24-1

The NASA goes 16 is much better.. you can also change all of the enhancements.


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

[RL3AO]

The NASA goes 16 is much better.. you can also change all of the enhancements.

The automated refresh and ability to make gifs and access older data makes COD more useful to me, but whatever works for people.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can't argue with 1min imagery though. It's like watching this thing strengthen in real time.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 1-13-200-1

[jdjaguar]

This is a better bet now that it's close to the US.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-24-0

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... o1-13-24-1

This works for me.

Thanks for the link!

[Aric Dunn]

The NASA goes 16 is much better.. you can also change all of the enhancements.

The automated refresh and ability to make gifs and access older data makes COD more useful to me, but whatever works for people.

fair enough. though the NASA is a new image every 5 min vs 15..