ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Steve]

GFS rolling out to 6.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 12:

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 18:

[Hurricane Andrew]

00z GFS through hour 12:

14mb in 6 hours; if that continues, could be down to <940 by landfall.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 24:

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 24:

[Steve]

30 hours still a 3. Looks bad for the coast. Hours and hours of getting smashed.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 30:

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS no difference from 18z:

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 48:

[msp]

This is a shift east by 48hr on the GFS

[tolakram]

Still going for the stall, though not quite as far inland this time.

[BRweather]

To follow up on my last post, at 12z Sunday the 00z GFS too has almost identical 500mb conditions as 00z NAM and 12z ECMWF. And both of those brought it back out to the Gulf.

Lets see what the GFS does this go around.

[bubbamccool]

Hello All, Long Time lurker first time poster. I have loved weather since watching super cell thunderstorms roll off the Rockies onto the great planes as a child. I was terrified. That initial terror has led to a life long Love of all things weather. I now live in Inland south east Texas and have experienced the awesome power of Rita and Ike and the lesser storms (at least here) of Gustav, Humberto, and most recently Cindy. I have never felt the need to post until now but Harvey is nerve racking. My question is in regards to path of Harvey. Aric Dunn posted yesterday about the possibility of a more north east landfall than currently predicted. I know none of the models are currently showing this (at least with the first landfall) but i am wondering why. I seems to me that due to the RI of the storm, the slower than predicted forward motion, and the uncertain strength of the high pressure systems to either side, Harvey could easily stall and go east of the current cone. Why is this possibility not being discussed. I am ignorant please help me understand. I am concerned that we may be in for a surprise. I am already prepared just in case. Thank you

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 60 - 72:

[Frank P]

H72 complete his first loop, last run he did two loops...

[Frank P]

H78 back in the Gulf just off the coast!

[tolakram]

Back over water, and moreso than last run. Certainly a trend for the GFS.