Nice 205AM TWD Larry discussion...

[Derecho]

One of the longest TWDs I've seen....

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/AXNT20.html

"In order for Larry to maintain its strength or
intensity...it must stay as far south as possible. Water vapor
imagery and numerical models suggest that the upper trough may
try to dig a little farther south in the next few days which
would bring the strong westerlies precariously close to Larry.
Also...the anticyclone/ridge centered over the storm may be
pushed farther south across srn Mexico and this would eradicate
much of the upper level divergence...not to mention increase the
westerly shear."

Should really have been mentioned in the Larry discussions, as it's an obvious point; a N or NE track for Larry (unless it can stay over water in the BOC for 7 or 10 days or more before coming NE, and there's some miraculous pattern change) is a SUICIDE track for Larry.

[JetMaxx]

That's what I've been trying to tell everyone...

We are currently in a WINTERTIME weather pattern over the southeastern U.S., and it looks to be that way for AT LEAST the next week. As you know Der, I live just west of Atlanta, GA. It's COLD here...not typical early October cooler wx; but well below normal (currently 48° outside); temps are running 10-15° below normal....

There will be frost tomorrow night (FRI a.m.) over a large portion of north Georgia and Alabama....much earlier than normal. In fact, it's been over a decade since I saw temperatures this cold so early in October.....record lows are a possibility (and more cold air is on the way for early next week).

Hurricanes thrive in a warm, moist, low shear enviroment -- NOT a winter-like upper air pattern with near-record cold temps and the main jet core across southern Tennessee, north Georgia/ Alabama.....that is a death sentence to any type of tropical system.

I honestly expect one of two things to happen to TS Larry:

1) high pressure drives the storm W to SW (possibly even S) into Mexico to dissapate..

2) Larry gets blown apart by one of these strong troughs and the associated jetstreaks of 80 kts or more...literally obliterated overnight.

This is a very unusual upper air weather pattern for so early in the season; more typical of November (and the reason we don't see major hurricanes at Thanksgiving). When the weather pattern looks like November, you will get November solutions to tropical storms. What happens to most tropical storms in November? They get sheared to death or driven south or SW into Mexico or Central America.

I'm NOT some anti-hurricane zealot. Hell, I usually over-forecast intensity...in an effort to warn coastal residents in harms way. I'm also a student of meteorology (for over 30 years), and know what makes the weather happen. I know what type of weather pattern makes hurricanes explode like Opal did (which WASN'T a surprise to me....I was expecting Opal to deepen significantly when she began to accelerate NNE....just not to 155 mph/ 916 mb. I was expecting Opal to be a cat-3 hurricane at landfall).

I also know from research and past experience what kinds of weather patterns kill or weaken hurricanes....and what I see occurring and forecast to continue the next 7-10 days is a textbook upper air setup to destroy anything tropical well before it comes close to the U.S.

What folks should be focusing on instead of a doomed tropical storm? This weather pattern may mean one of the coldest winters in recent memory is on the way for the southeastern U.S. -- good news for ski resorts and school kids wanting snow; but very bad news for Florida citrus growers and anyone (myself included) who hates to pay high home heating bills.

If the overall weather pattern we are now continues into December, we'll see bitterly cold weather in Georgia and Alabama....and probably wintery precip in some unusual locations (anyone else remember the December snowfall in New Orleans, Savannah, and Charleston in 1989?).

That's how unusual it is....and why I don't believe TS Larry has a snowballs chance in hell of "slingshotting" eastward across the GOM into Florida as a major hurricane. It isn't possible in such a cold, dry, and highly sheared enviroment.

[Aquawind]

Should really have been mentioned in the Larry discussions, as it's an obvious point; a N or NE track for Larry (unless it can stay over water in the BOC for 7 or 10 days or more before coming NE, and there's some miraculous pattern change) is a SUICIDE track for Larry.

Yep, That has been the case for a week now. The GOM shear has been to strong.. it did finaly develop interestingly enough...but on the edge some impressive cool and dry air. Another week and things may change..but then again it may not survive that long.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_mgm.gif

[dixiebreeze]

Jetmaxx, I sure do remember the winter of '89. Even here in west central florida we had a thin glaze of ice over the roads for a brief period at one point -- and a few flutterings of what looked like "snow." It was a very cold winter in Florida.

[Stormsfury]

If the overall weather pattern we are now continues into December, we'll see bitterly cold weather in Georgia and Alabama....and probably wintery precip in some unusual locations (anyone else remember the December snowfall in New Orleans, Savannah, and Charleston in 1989?).

You better believe I remember the December snowfall in Charleston. 11.7" of it here (8" officially at CHS) and the 4 foot drifts! ...

SF

[ColdFront77]

The GOM shear has been to strong..

For whatever its worth, upper level wind shear has decreased 10 to 20 knots this afternoon over the western Gulf of Mexico.