ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

Just when we thought "GFS now on board with EURO." It goes and does this.

[Steve]

Farther west escape out it appears through the Piney Woods maybe?

[wxman22]

If the GFS scenario panned out that would be historical.... Its really crazy how consistent the models have been with these rainfall amounts.

[BRweather]

Thing is with these GFS runs is that it has Harvey lasting way longer than ECWMF.

If that is the case we still have a ton of model runs to go through and there are likely still many changes ahead.

I mean we are talking another week+ here

[stormlover2013]

Gfs is slowly getting on board with euro

[Steve]

Canadian with the cc loop along the Rio Grande and smeared back at Brownsville at 84 hours.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Farther west escape out it appears through the Piney Woods maybe?

As much as we don't want this thing anywhere near us after last year and all the rains this summer, I just can't see that gfs run come anywhere close to coming to fruition. By just stalling it out like that around Galveston for days looks like its lost and doesn't know what to do with Harvey. It's ever so slowly starting to agree with the euro little by little but again loses touch with reality.

[chaser1]

All I can say is geez. Not to disrupt the model thread, but GEEZ. This is a horrible scenario in terms of flooding!! I hope points east and NE of Harvey are ready!

For those in flood prone area, there really does need to be an awareness of the dangers from drowning and the damage that does occur in and near low elevation points, valleys, and near creeks and rivers. Below elevation parking garages can turn into death traps and simple things such as having flotation devices, life jackets, a kayak or john boat are things many of us would never consider the need for outside of being out on the open water. What many Texans need to take heed of, is that there may well be many areas that will in fact turn into "open waters". Make sure to get several strong and large garbage bags for important papers, documents, identification, and photos. Make sure to share yours and others you are with contact information, so that family or friends might have some means to contact or "eyeball" Facebook to know that you and others are safe. Pay attention and heed the advice of local police and officials regarding evacuation orders.

[Nederlander]

Southwest of Galveston. Anyone have higher detail where that is?

Looks like Palacious to Matagorda.

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian with the cc loop along the Rio Grande and smeared back at Brownsville at 84 hours.

Looks like the HMNON. Canadian has been consistent in showing this and it's ensembles agree with the op run as well.

[stormlover2013]

lol crazy Cmc lol

[Steve]

Farther west escape out it appears through the Piney Woods maybe?

As much as we don't want this thing anywhere near us after last year and all the rains this summer, I just can't see that gfs run come anywhere close to coming to fruition. By just stalling it out like that around Galveston for days looks like its lost and doesn't know what to do with Harvey. It's ever so slowly starting to agree with the euro little by little but again loses touch with reality.

I dont know. Canadian still had it at Brownsville way weaker but at 90 hours. The ridge in the mid MS Valley on the GFS slides east so that's what allows the channel for Harvey to move up toward DFW. We will see if the EC holds serve or moves its track farther west.

[wkwally]

Southwest of Galveston. Anyone have higher detail where that is?

I would be thinking Alvin

[Steve]

CMC just winds it down spinning around Brownsville and Matamoras. That's about a week of just spinning around South TX. Next up is either Hwrf or NAVGEM

[Steve]

The HWRF at 30hours on the coast at 951mb. I hate that model most of the time but it's inside a day and a half.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2500&fh=30

[tolakram]

If you've been following model verification (they are out there for those who care to google), that darn CMC model has been accurate in the short term, under 2 days usually. After that, forget it.

[Janie2006]

Spinning down near Brownsville after hanging out in South Texas makes as much sense as making a beeline for DFW or Wichita Falls, tbh. Why not? This is giving me a headache.

[Steve]

Spinning down near Brownsville after hanging out in South Texas makes as much sense as making a beeline for DFW or Wichita Falls, tbh. Why not? This is giving me a headache.

Lol. If you run its hurricane output at TT it comes back in around Intracoastal City and tracks E across South LA toward you. It's weak but moves that center offshore and back over Mobile County as a ghost remnant low. Greatness by the CMC

[Janie2006]

It's interesting that King Euro's output would be considered a "Crazy Uncle" solution under most other circumstances. Yet here it seems to be the most logical solution given what a lot of the others are doing.

[South Texas Storms]

0z UKMET stalls it over south Texas again.

HURRICANE HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.0N 94.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2017 0 25.0N 94.2W 981 54
1200UTC 25.08.2017 12 26.2N 95.9W 980 50
0000UTC 26.08.2017 24 27.5N 96.8W 977 55
1200UTC 26.08.2017 36 28.3N 97.3W 978 57
0000UTC 27.08.2017 48 28.8N 97.6W 987 43
1200UTC 27.08.2017 60 28.8N 97.8W 988 41
0000UTC 28.08.2017 72 28.4N 98.0W 989 38
1200UTC 28.08.2017 84 28.1N 97.7W 993 36
0000UTC 29.08.2017 96 28.0N 97.5W 994 32
1200UTC 29.08.2017 108 28.3N 97.7W 998 30
0000UTC 30.08.2017 120 28.8N 97.9W 999 26
1200UTC 30.08.2017 132 29.0N 98.9W 1003 23
0000UTC 31.08.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING