ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Lobwedgephil]

When does the next Euro initialize?

[BRweather]

ECMWF will be running in a little over 30 minutes.

So far it has been giving the most logical outcome in my opinion. Also the most consistent.

Very curious to see if it budges, but after seeing the 00Z NAM with the upper-level dropsonde information and how it mimicked the 12z ECMWF, I do not know why it would change now.

[Steve]

Bottom half of the hour. Lots of stalls/washouts in South TX muddying up 00z scenarios.

[BRweather]

Looks like the HWRF is trying to reemerge over the Gulf at hr 78

[BRweather]

00Z HWRF back at the coast hour 87

[BRweather]

HWRF back over water, BUT..

Lots of dry being pulled in and also centers are not stacked. So do not think much strengthening would occur if a route like this was taken.

[Steve]

Navgem always fills in weird at Tropical Tidbits. After landfall it loops South TX and is offshore of Brownsville and South Padre at 84 hours. It's got a long way to go to update and fill in, but it joins other stall farther South models.

[BRweather]

Navgem always fills in weird at Tropical Tidbits. After landfall it loops South TX and is offshore of Brownsville and South Padre at 84 hours. It's got a long way to go to update and fill in, but it joins other stall farther South models.

Hour 102 offshore going NE. Might landfall again in TX or keep NE/NNE

[BRweather]

Again, initializes way too weak. So weird

[Steve]

Yeah. I didn't see that move on the navgem coming. It's basically at the same place it will be tomorrow at hour 84 but then has an E component between 84 and 102. Navgem doesn't go that far inland with landfall #1. EC should be rolling any second.

[BRweather]

[Steve]

108hr NAVGEM looks to be working toward SETX. That's 4.5 days. Navgem then makes a move in just south of Galveston Bay and heads up to east Texas but then takes on a western component like it wants to do another loop.

[Alyono]

EC bombing this out

[BRweather]

Talk about identical

EC AND NAM at 00z Saturday

[Kingarabian]

961mb cat.3 landfall.

[BRweather]

Sunday 00z if we are looking for differences,

EC has not as strong of a ridge in the GULF which would make sense for why GFS wants to stall this out longer

[BRweather]

EC looking like its getting ready to swing out to sea in hour 72. Not seeing any differences besides stronger storm at first landfall.

[msp]

euro back out over gulf by 96hr, restrengthening to 986mb

[BRweather]

Pretty big difference at hour 120 on ECMWF.

It does not look like it will get as far east this time when back over water. Looks like it might head for a second landfall around Houston

[South Texas Storms]

Pretty big difference at hour 120 on ECMWF.

It does not look like it will get as far east this time when back over water. Looks like it might head for a second landfall around Houston

Yep and that's after Houston has already had over a foot of rain on the Euro before the possible second landfall. What a nightmare scenario that would be.