ATL: HARVEY - Models

[xironman]

Definitely slower, but at 120 the errors are going to be pretty big

[Lobwedgephil]

Euro, 969 in Houston 144 hours?

[BRweather]

Pretty big difference at hour 120 on ECMWF.

It does not look like it will get as far east this time when back over water. Looks like it might head for a second landfall around Houston

Yep and that's after Houston has already had over a foot of rain on the Euro before the possible second landfall. What a nightmare scenario that would be.

So basically it is looking like the faster it makes landfall and gets back over water, the further east it has been going. Because that ridge is pumping in over the Gulf under the trough bringing southerly steering currents. 12z EC got out ahead of it allowing for more southwesterly steering currents.

Have to see what 12z later on will do

[BRweather]

Yeah I think a lot of people forget that is over 5 days out and no way this will not deviate some.

We are going to be tired of this storm

[South Texas Storms]

Pretty big difference at hour 120 on ECMWF.

It does not look like it will get as far east this time when back over water. Looks like it might head for a second landfall around Houston

Yep and that's after Houston has already had over a foot of rain on the Euro before the possible second landfall. What a nightmare scenario that would be.

So basically it is looking like the faster it makes landfall and gets back over water, the further east it has been going. Because that ridge is pumping in over the Gulf under the trough bringing southerly steering currents. 12z EC got out ahead of it allowing for more southwesterly steering currents.

Have to see what 12z later on will do

I think a big factor will be how far inland this storm can track. The more north it goes, the weaker and more west the possible second landfall (if any) will likely be.

[meriland29]

120 hours? Nhc has this over land in a day or so. Hmm. My curiously surrounds how itll effect the intensity once at land if it takes longer to reach land..

[BRweather]

If you are following along.

NAM again back offshore after landfall.

[USTropics]

06z GFS has shifted a smidge to the west with landfall on the coast in 24 hours:

[USTropics]

Two days later, Harvey is about to reemerge over the GOM in about the same spot it made landfall:

[N2FSU]

+108hr

[Frank P]

Thru H170 pretty much like last run...

[NDG]

I couldn't let this go after I was questioned a couple of night's ago by a number of people why was I dismissing the CMC model after the spaghetti models started trending for a run or two towards Brownsville, this is the reason why. Harvey would have to put on the breaks right now and head straight west for this CMC run from just 36 hrs ago to come to fruition, and the previous run from this one had Harvey making landfall south of the border.
Hopefully a lesson learned to those that were putting more stock on it than to the GFS and Euro runs in a short term forecast.

[tolakram]

Not sure who was thinking the CMC would be correct?

GFS trending toward Euro but Euro also trending a little toward the GFS. Final solution looks to be still east of the GFS but probably a little west of the euro. Once again the blend, with the euro weighted heavier, looks to be the winner. Now the question is how far offshore Harvey gets after the bounce back, IMO.

[BRweather]

Not sure who was thinking the CMC would be correct?

GFS trending toward Euro but Euro also trending a little toward the GFS. Final solution looks to be still east of the GFS but probably a little west of the euro. Once again the blend, with the euro weighted heavier, looks to be the winner. Now the question is how far offshore Harvey gets after the bounce back, IMO.

Yes this seems to be the million dollar question, but I seriously think we will not have an answer until it actually occurs. This just seems too difficult for models to handle. It could reemerge quicker, it could go a little further, it could stay a little closer and every option likely has different outcomes.

We'll see

[Frank P]

06Z NAVGEM back east again in SWLA

[Frank P]

HWRF 06Z back east again out in GOM south of TX/LA line then moves NNW near but just a tad east of state line

[Frank P]

HMON at H126 06Z takes it well inland then makes a big ass loop, and goes farther out in the Gulf than any other model to date...

[sphelps8681]

What kind of pressures are we looking at as it moves toward Tx/La border? I am an hour West of Cameron, La.

[Frank P]

OZ NAM at H84 again well off the coast near where it goes inland...

[jlauderdal]

HMON at H126 06Z takes it well inland then makes a big ass loop, and goes farther out in the Gulf than any other model to date...

at this rate florida will be on the table in 10 days...