ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Texas Snowman]

The central and upper TX coast will never be the same, I am afraid after Harvey is gone after next week.

Taylor Trogdon, a senior scientist with @NHC_Surge, tweeted something similar late last night:

"@TTrogdon -- Harvey beginning to have the look/feel of a weather event that could become a demarcation in peoples' lives.

Before Harvey | After Harvey"

[txwatcher91]

Harvey is still struggling with the southern eyewall breaking up yet the pressure continues dropping. Once the eyewall holds I believe it will reach cat 3 status and quickly deepen from there. Seems to be struggling to close it off for some reason.

Also, the wind field and size of the storm seems to be growing.

[MaineWeatherNut]

I had not realized that it was a 5 mb drop in between the last 2 passes, wow!

Yeah it's been dropping at about a rate of 5mb per hour for the last 3 hours.

[ronjon]

Well at least folks in Brownsville can relax now - the storm is moving past their latitude as we speak. TWC showed tremendous lightning in the eastern eyewall 30 mins ago. Another 20 mb drop the next 12 hours puts Harvey around 938-940 mb near landfall.

[forecasterjack]

Hi guys!
This is my first post here! Excited to talk about Harvey!

Quite the dangerous situation here... GOES-16 data shows a pinhole eye developing (https://weather.us/satellite/texas/top- ... .html#play) and radar data confirms it (https://weather.us/radar-us/texas/refle ... .html#play). If that can fully close off, it's easy for me to see Cat 4 strength before landfall. The storm is struggling with a little bit of dry air by the looks of it. Thank goodness, without that we'd be headed for strong Cat 4 status no doubt. Convection is also a little bit lopsided. Nevertheless, this is a crazy dangerous storm. Wild to think that two days ago this was what, a tropical wave?

Hope everyone in Texas has taken the proper precautions!

[MaineWeatherNut]

Well at least folks in Brownsville can relax now - the storm is moving past their latitude as we speak. TWC showed tremendous lightning in the eastern eyewall 30 mins ago. Another 20 mb drop the next 12 hours puts Harvey around 938-940 mb near landfall.

another 20mb drop would put it into the low 930s. It's down to 953mb right now.

[NDG]

5mb drop in one pass. Harvey may be putting on one last big show before landfall. Obviously, anymore northward movement provides more time over water.

A blend between the GFS and the Euro would mean almost 20-24 hrs before it makes landfall, plenty of time to may drop down another 15-20 mb before then, IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Edit from my previous post of course I mistyped as I meant it state that I have no doubts that Harvey willbe at least a category 4 hurricane later today. However, I'm going to add to that in the way this thing is continuing to deepen and intensify at a rapid clip, on its approach to the Texas coast, I'm starting to think now that this is going to be a cat 5 hurricane and go in the history books as one of the strongest hurricanes to have ever impacted the United States. This is just been an incredible tropical cyclone and again I say my prayers go to everyone and the Texas coastal region and Southern Texas ..Wow, just a nightmare scenario and I'm just hoping for the best and praying for everyone In Harm's Way!!

[AubreyStorm]

Vía Ryan Maue
Up to 35" rainfall forecast update by @NWSWPC from Hurricane #Harvey
Long duration flooding disaster imminent near coast & inland.

[forecasterjack]

Well at least folks in Brownsville can relax now - the storm is moving past their latitude as we speak. TWC showed tremendous lightning in the eastern eyewall 30 mins ago. Another 20 mb drop the next 12 hours puts Harvey around 938-940 mb near landfall.

Sure enough, lots of lightning strikes showing up in the eastern eyewall. Sign of very rapid strengthening. If storms can reach high enough for depolarization in the center of a warm core system... yikes. You can see the lightning data for yourself here: https://weather.us/lightning/951-w-261- ... 1045z.html

[txwatcher91]

Edit from my previous post of course I mistyped as I meant it state that I have no doubts that Harvey willbe at least a category 4 hurricane later today. However, I'm going to add to that in the way this thing is continuing to deepen and intensify at a rapid clip, on its approach to the Texas coast, I'm starting to think now that this is going to be a cat 5 hurricane and go in the history books as one of the strongest hurricanes to have ever impacted the United States. This is just been an incredible tropical cyclone and again I say my prayers go to everyone and the Texas coastal region and Southern Texas ..Wow, just a nightmare scenario and I'm just hoping for the best and praying for everyone In Harm's Way

What concerns me most are the scenarios of this stalling right over or near Corpus Christi with half the eye over water still. Not only would they be battered for hours with hurricane force winds and torrential rains, it would also allow the system to weaken slower too.

[hurricaneCW]

I believe Harvey will be in the Top 5 for costliest storm just on the rain aspects alone but it could be in the Top 3 if it hits as a Category 4.

[Dave C]

Last vortex message also had closed eyewall

[Dave C]

110 mph 7 am nhc statement 952mb

[ronjon]

I suppose at this point we can only hope for some last minute weakening as it approaches slightly cooler shelf waters but even that would be a few mb most likely.

[Exalt]

If this rate of intensification continues without any hiccups a Cat 5 would not be out of the question at all. Horrifying to watch, at least the likes of Patricia and Matthew weakened pre-landfall..

[FLpanhandle91]

Best IR presentation by far it's ever had right now.

[forecasterjack]

Some of the data from last night's ECMWF run was just insane. PWAT's >3" in the same place for days leading to total rainfall of 40+"? Yikes. You can get full res ECMWF stuff for free: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/95 ... 0000z.html

[JPmia]

It appears Harvey is moving through the Warm Eddy in the Loop Current, which may explain the current deepening trend.

[Nimbus]

I suppose at this point we can only hope for some last minute weakening as it approaches slightly cooler shelf waters but even that would be a few mb most likely.

After a stall offshore Texas followed by a front disrupting the circulation and sweeping the remnants off the NJ coast where it redevelops.

Yeah maybe Greenland....