Whats the most unexpected path of Larry?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

Whats the most unexpected path of Larry?

#1 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Oct 02, 2003 6:48 am

A strange question perhaps?

October cyclones during an early Winter pattern can make for interesting results in the eventual path and lifetime of these systems.

Will the pattern change just as TS Larry almost dissapates over the SW GOM bringing renewed life and concern?

Will Larry die of the BOC with remnants moving onshore near Veracruz?

Will return flow occuring earlier than expected moving Larry NW or N?

Will Larry move NE toward Florida or W into Mexico?

Who knows at this point......definitely the most difficult to forecast with very weak steering currents for the next 5-days.

Expect the unexpected with TS Larry. This will be fun to watch
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

#2 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Oct 02, 2003 7:45 am

Very good points you bring up for discussion KatDaddy!!! Basically as you said, NO ONE KNOWS, but IMO, Mexico is the most likely end for Larry. My guess would be by Monday or Tuesday he will be moving inland over MX still a TS. There is too much coming at him from the N and for that matter NE with the early winter pattern we now have in place, about 2 months early for this region. As always we sit and watch.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

Derecho
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1011
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2003 3:15 pm

#3 Postby Derecho » Thu Oct 02, 2003 9:56 am

The GFS has moved Larry south over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the EASTERN PACIFIC for several runs in a row now.....
0 likes   

Anonymous

Least Likely

#4 Postby Anonymous » Thu Oct 02, 2003 1:07 pm

I guess the least likely would be a long Easterly or ENE movement. Southern Florida seems an unlikely target given that if Larry starts to move it will likely get grabbed by a front and pulled N or NE at some point. The NE Gulf seems the most likely target to me and Mexico and the rest of the Gulf will have to watch it.
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#5 Postby southerngale » Thu Oct 02, 2003 1:42 pm

Yep, I feel quite certain Larry won't be coming to see me! ;)
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Stratton23 and 62 guests