ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3261 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:05 am

NDG wrote:Yes Sir, depending where they drop them, the last one was dropped on the NE quadrant, because of the circulation it landed on the northern eyewall quadrant as it fell down, that's why you see the shift in the winds.

http://i.imgur.com/WaDOrRJ.png


Thanks. What I really want to see is drops from the jet but it appears there is no archive (that I can easily find). Satellite presentation of Harvey is improved greatly just over the last few hours.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3262 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:06 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Besides the storm surge threat along the coast, this graphic is what scares me the most:

Image

It is hard to comprehend what 20+ inches of rain is like. Not only this, but to have 20+ inches of rain over such a large area is truly incredible. I am very afraid of the potential for significant inland flooding. Remember, water is what tends to kill people in tropical cyclones. Many people think it is okay to drive through roads in which they cannot see the bottom of the water. Do not do this. Turn around - don't drown!

We are officially forecasting 25 up to 35 inches of rainfall across the SE Texas/Houston Metro Area. The same goes for the Middle Texas Coast. And that maybe too conservative as expressed by the WPC.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3263 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:06 am

If no EWR is taking place, at least we can agree that the eye is expanding some.
Also, on the last pass by the recon the strongest winds covered a larger area so indeed the eyewall could be expanding.

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3264 Postby hd44 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:10 am

NDG wrote:If no EWR is taking place, at least we can agree that the eye is expanding some.
Also, on the last pass by the recon the strongest winds covered a larger area so indeed the eyewall could be expanding.

Image


That is an ewrc. This may weaken and then intensify again.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3265 Postby weunice » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:12 am

After living in a town of which 90% flooded because of 20-30" of rain in a few days, I wouldn't wish that type of event on anyone. Our flood was a $10 billion dollar disaster and affected the lives of everyone, not just those who flooded. And that was with no wind. Couple that with a major hurricane landfall and we are talking a top tier disaster in US history that will affect far more than those near the coast. The deal is, the people near the coast have an idea their world is about to be rocked. The inland flood victims are largely unaware at this point.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3266 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:13 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/901053842787246081




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
Current intensity of #Hurricane #Harvey of 110 mph & 950 mb pressure is the exact same landfall wind and pressure intensity of Ike (2008).
8:09 AM - Aug 25, 2017
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3267 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:14 am

As the eye expands it looks like it will finally clear out on satellite, IMO.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3268 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:14 am

I'm not convinced that this is an EWRC taking place. It appears that some dry air was sort of "constricting" the eyewall and now that it has mixed out, the eye is expanding and not being choked off by the dry air. Just my best guess as recon doesn't seem to be finding a second wind maxima and usually in an EWRC the inner eye will be fairly intense. You also typically don't see the pressure dropping so fast in one either which is why I think the dry air was acting like a "second eyewall" and cutting things off. Either way, it looks like we may have a cat 3 now and plenty of time still over water for further intensification.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3269 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:18 am

tolakram wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/901053842787246081

Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
Current intensity of #Hurricane #Harvey of 110 mph & 950 mb pressure is the exact same landfall wind and pressure intensity of Ike (2008).
8:09 AM - Aug 25, 2017


The only difference Ike was weakening as it approached the TX coast, Harvey is strengthening, more dangerous storm, IMO.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3270 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:18 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Besides the storm surge threat along the coast, this graphic is what scares me the most:

Image

It is hard to comprehend what 20+ inches of rain is like. Not only this, but to have 20+ inches of rain over such a large area is truly incredible. I am very afraid of the potential for significant inland flooding. Remember, water is what tends to kill people in tropical cyclones. Many people think it is okay to drive through roads in which they cannot see the bottom of the water. Do not do this. Turn around - don't drown!


what;s scaring me si the potential for 150 mph gusts in downtown Corpus. That's probably the most immediate concern. No mandatory evacuation was ordered for Corpus
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3271 Postby J_J99 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:19 am

NDG wrote:
tolakram wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/901053842787246081

Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
Current intensity of #Hurricane #Harvey of 110 mph & 950 mb pressure is the exact same landfall wind and pressure intensity of Ike (2008).
8:09 AM - Aug 25, 2017


The only difference Ike was weakening as it approached the TX coast, Harvey is strengthening, more dangerous storm, IMO.


Ike was getting its act together RIGHT at landfall.... and if it had a few more hours over water it wouldve been a major.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3272 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:20 am

What winds will Victoria see??? Anyone
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3273 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:21 am

J_J99 wrote:
NDG wrote:
tolakram wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/901053842787246081

Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
Current intensity of #Hurricane #Harvey of 110 mph & 950 mb pressure is the exact same landfall wind and pressure intensity of Ike (2008).
8:09 AM - Aug 25, 2017


The only difference Ike was weakening as it approached the TX coast, Harvey is strengthening, more dangerous storm, IMO.


Ike was getting its act together RIGHT at landfall.... and if it had a few more hours over water it wouldve been a major.


Ike was a bit of a miracle. Had it not started to get its act together, the wind field would have been far more broad. Beaumont would have went under water. The I.K.E. dropped by about 40 percent due to its contraction
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3275 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:21 am

I bet WXMAN57 is pretty busy now, and has been for the last week or so. Would love to hear his analysis of this storm. Hope you are doing well buddy!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3276 Postby Michele B » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:21 am

Nederlander wrote:I'm not too familiar with Rick Knabb, but two observations... He seems very intelligent and knows his stuff... and he seems very uncomfortable on camera lol.. how long has he been with TWC and am I the only one making these obs?


WHERE is Brian Norcross?

He's a calm, steadying voice, and many people trust what he tells them, after Andrew in Miami, I'm surprised they haven't got him on air here.

Is he on vacation or something?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3277 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:22 am

jaguars_22 wrote:What winds will Victoria see??? Anyone


Look at the NHC wind charts or contact local authorities for their expert opinion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092407.shtml?hwind120#wcontents
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3278 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:22 am

IMHO there is a high probability that is an EWRC

I see two walls at some point in the loop and then wall 1 starts to dissipate.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3279 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:22 am

The inner-core is starting to look really good on radar now. Likely still rapidly intensifying. Recon should find pressures in the 940s next pass. This is scary. Praying for those in TX.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3280 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:23 am

txwatcher91 wrote:I'm not convinced that this is an EWRC taking place. It appears that some dry air was sort of "constricting" the eyewall and now that it has mixed out, the eye is expanding and not being choked off by the dry air. Just my best guess as recon doesn't seem to be finding a second wind maxima and usually in an EWRC the inner eye will be fairly intense. You also typically don't see the pressure dropping so fast in one either which is why I think the dry air was acting like a "second eyewall" and cutting things off. Either way, it looks like we may have a cat 3 now and plenty of time still over water for further intensification.


They did sort of find a second wind maxima at flight level, at least that they expanded on the NE quandrant.

Image
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