Texas Summer 2017

[aggiecutter]

[Brent]

18z GFS has Harvey still in Texas in September..

[starsfan65]

18z GFS has Harvey still in Texas in September..

Really? Is it still in Texas in September?

[Brent]

18z GFS has Harvey still in Texas in September..

Really? Is it still in Texas in September?

yes it laungishes around Austin/San Antonio before pulling towards Longview

[weatherdude1108]

I have gotten an inch of rain in my gauge since yesterday. This has nothing to do with Harvey.

I'll have to empty it to make room for later, since it only goes to 6 inches.

[weatherdude1108]

Someone earlier mentioned dry air entrainment. NHC mentions it possibly happened on north side of storm that happened earlier today.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 250235
TCDAT4

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Harvey's rapid intensification seems to have slowed for the moment,
as an eye seen earlier in satellite imagery has lost definition
during the past few hours. In addition, reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that 700-mb flight level
winds are in the 75-80 kt range, with reliable surface wind
estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer remaining
near 75 kt. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure
has slowly fallen to 973 mb inside the 16 n mi wide eye. Based on
these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt, and this could be a
little conservative.

Harvey has turned a little to the left since the last advisory with
the initial motion now 315/9. A mid-level anticyclone over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Harvey generally
northwestward with a decreasing forward speed for the next 36-48 h,
with the center now forecast to make landfall on the middle Texas
coast in about 36 h. This part of the new forecast track has been
nudged a little to the left based mainly on the initial position
and motion. After landfall, the cyclone is likely to get stuck
between the Gulf anticyclone and a stronger anticyclone over the
western United States, with little motion likely from 48-96 h.
A slow eastward motion appears likely by 120 h due to the influence
of a trough in the westerlies digging into the eastern United
States. There is some spread in the guidance at that time, with
the GFS showing Harvey drifting slowly eastward and the ECMWF
showing a faster motion. The new forecast track splits this
difference of 5-day forecasts and lies near the consensus models.

It is unclear why the intensification has slowed, although it is
possibly due to some dry air seen earlier wrapping around the north
side of the core convection. Otherwise, Harvey remains in an
favorable environment for further strengthening with low vertical
shear and high oceanic heat content. The intensity forecast will
use the scenario that rapid intensification will resume tonight,
with Harvey becoming a major hurricane before landfall in Texas.
After landfall, the intensity forecast is based on the scenario that
Harvey will weaken over land, but it will remain close enough to
the coast so that the weakening will be slower than normal. Thus,
the forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm from 72-120 h.

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustments are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 25.2N 94.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 26.1N 95.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 27.2N 96.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 28.1N 97.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 28.5N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TheProfessor]

0z GFS says if you want to escape Harvey you best head to the panhandles lol.

[Cerlin]

This whole situation is nuts! Praying for everyone along the Gulf that this does not turn into anything worse.

[Yukon Cornelius]

...12 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE... ...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey has strengthened. The estimated maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...25.5N 94.9W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

[Texas Snowman]

Posted this over in the Harvey - Discussion thread:

-----

The central and upper TX coast will never be the same, I am afraid after Harvey is gone after next week.

Taylor Trogdon, a senior scientist with @NHC_Surge, tweeted something similar late last night:

"@TTrogdon -- Harvey beginning to have the look/feel of a weather event that could become a demarcation in peoples' lives.

Before Harvey | After Harvey"

[Texas Snowman]

Still on the same idea (history being made), Joe Bastardi just tweeted this:

-----

"@BigJoeBastardi -- Now a major on my power and impact scale which incorporates pressure. Should go to a 4 before 1st landfall
2cnd Wed up the coast, may be 3"

-----

Can't even imagine the damage two major landfalls and 20+ inches of rainfall could do to our great state.

[Texas Snowman]

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
600 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...6 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...
...HARVEY STILL STRENGTHENING...

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph
(175 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data
is 952 mb (28.11 inches).

SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 95.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Texas Snowman]

3.1 earthquake just confirmed in Irving by USGS

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

3.1 earthquake just confirmed in Irving by USGS

Cat 5 in the gulf** and earthquakes in North Texas. Is this the beginning of the end?

** Okay, not really, but regulars know what I mean.

[Ntxw]

I'm in Irving but I never felt it (you usually don't unless you are still or at the center of it).

Devastating weekend for the mid and lower Texas coast, little time to do much now but watch things unfold and pray for them. For all Texas residents, flooding kills. Don't drive in it.

[Tireman4]

I'm in Irving but I never felt it (you usually don't unless you are still or at the center of it).

Devastating weekend for the mid and lower Texas coast, little time to do much now but watch things unfold and pray for them. For all Texas residents, flooding kills. Don't drive in it.

Um maybe us too ( upper Texas coast). The rain alone will cause havok.

[gboudx]

Just want to post this from jeff. The more places it reaches, the better. Apologies if it's already on the Harvey discussion thread:

This is focused to those individuals in the mandatory evacuation areas of:

Calhoun, Refugio, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces, Jackson, and Matagorda Counties

I have been to your lunch meetings and presented at your conferences, many of you have been on this mailing list for years and have come to trust what I say and the forecast produced.

This is “that storm”, this is “the storm” with only comparisons to Celia (1970) and Carla (1961) for your region. You face one of the most difficult decisions of your life, to stay or leave and for some the landfall of this hurricane will be a defining life moment broken into before and after Harvey. The reality is that some of you will lose everything you own in the next 24 hours, entire homes will be washed away and destroyed by the storm surge.

You must leave, you cannot be in the storm surge inundation zones when Harvey moves ashore…the sea water is going to rise 8-12 feet above the ground in some of these counties along with battering waves that will beat structures to collapse. The coastline will forever be changed in the next 24 hours. You must make the correct decision and complete your preparations immediately and move inland. I am pleading with you to evacuate those areas under mandatory evacuation orders.

Jeff

[Ntxw]

I'm in Irving but I never felt it (you usually don't unless you are still or at the center of it).

Devastating weekend for the mid and lower Texas coast, little time to do much now but watch things unfold and pray for them. For all Texas residents, flooding kills. Don't drive in it.

Um maybe us too ( upper Texas coast). The rain alone will cause havok.

Yes, maybe not the wind and surge like further south, but everyone along I-10 and south is at risk for biblical rains.

[dhweather]

Yes, maybe not the wind and surge like further south, but everyone along I-10 and south is at risk for biblical rains.

This could very well be a 500 year flood event. People really need to take preparation with the flooding threat.

[Ntxw]

Portastorm will never again gripe about not getting rain if the NAM and latest GFS came to light. In fact if that happened Porta will resent rain for the next decade..