ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

949 mbs and moving NW.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking better again on IR.

That doesnt present to me like an EWRC is occurring...looks more like the eye is clearing out

[RL3AO]

That doesnt present to me like an EWRC is occurring...looks more like the eye is clearing out

You can see it pretty clearly on radar. The 2nd eyewall is trying to become dominant.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 13:28Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 22 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 13:00:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°25'N 95°56'W (26.4167N 95.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 102 statute miles (164 km) to the ENE (71°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,658m (8,720ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 75kts (~ 86.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 52° at 80kts (From the NE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 949mb (28.03 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the E (94°) from the flight level center at 13:05:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 250° at 10kts (From the WSW at 12mph)

[Aric Dunn]

That doesnt present to me like an EWRC is occurring...looks more like the eye is clearing out

You can see it pretty clearly on radar. The 2nd eyewall is trying to become dominant.

also here

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)

[ScottNAtlanta]

That doesnt present to me like an EWRC is occurring...looks more like the eye is clearing out

You can see it pretty clearly on radar. The 2nd eyewall is trying to become dominant.

Yeah, I can see it on the slider when I zoom in

[DPTX]

[quote="Michele B"][quote="JPmia"][quote="RL3AO"]

I hope this doesn't lead to people getting trapped on the roads...[/quote]

Isn't it a little late in the game here?? They're already getting Tropical Storm rains and winds soon. Wow.[/quote]

It's a Catch 22 for them.

Say "Leave!" too early and the storm veers off track, people get disillusioned and quit listening to the "experts."
Say wait, and if it gets really bad quickly people will be trapped and some will be injured.

I don't envy them trying to time it out correctly.[/quote]
If you click on the link the possible call for evacuation was at YESTERDAYS news conference.

[Alyono]

That doesnt present to me like an EWRC is occurring...looks more like the eye is clearing out

You can see it pretty clearly on radar. The 2nd eyewall is trying to become dominant.

looks almost finished. Even during the EWRC, we aw near explosive intensifictaion

Right now, the 3km NAM is looking quite good

[dukeblue219]

Did I see Dropsonde with 103kt winds at the surface? Cat. 3 now? 115mph?

Recent sonde was 83 kt at surface but 103kt at 925mb level.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That doesnt present to me like an EWRC is occurring...looks more like the eye is clearing out

You can see it pretty clearly on radar. The 2nd eyewall is trying to become dominant.

also here

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)

well...there is no arguing with that!

[dukeblue219]

Just heard: Winds at 105 mph

VERY close to Cat 3 now

The last official advisory was at 110 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

once the inner eye stops producing convection the eye should be able to clear out pretty quick and we will likely have a more classic looking hurricane.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That doesnt present to me like an EWRC is occurring...looks more like the eye is clearing out

You can see it pretty clearly on radar. The 2nd eyewall is trying to become dominant.

looks almost finished. Even during the EWRC, we aw near explosive intensifictaion

Right now, the 3km NAM is looking quite good

How rare is that? I think thats what was bothering me...you dont usually see consistent pressure drops through EWRC, correct?

[SouthDadeFish]

Definitely two eyewalls now. It's clear from both recon and radar. The question now is, how quickly does this replacement take? Does this system maintain two eyewalls until landfall? Or does the cycle complete? I would expect that if the replacement cycle finishes sooner rather than later, additional intensification will take place. Judging by the flight-level winds, the outer eyewall already has the stronger winds, which makes me think this might finish fairly soon.

[JPmia]

Well I just left the airport now I gotta head home or do I have time ?

How far is home? If close, grab your important papers, cherished possessions, few days of clothes quickly, then get out. Make sure you have non perishable food, water and gas.

I got the food and water In my truck I'm getting the he'll out of here ASAP

May we all suggest that you and your airport folks prepare an Emergency Management Plan when all of this is over.. take advantage of this disaster to justify the expense so you're not in this predicament again. Good luck buddy and don't get caught on the roads!

[RL3AO]

Eye is rapidly warming now. Looks like ERC is wrapping up. Watch out for the next 12 hours or so.

[MississippiWx]

Yeah recon makes it very clear on the ewrc.

Amazing it is deepening so fast anyway.

[Soonercane]

Update from Victoria.... I am inland so will not evacuate mainly because I want to keep the roads less congested for people coming up the coast and I think I can handle hurricane force gusts in the structure I live (if we gusted to over 100 maybe things would get interesting but given the ewrc ongoing and more southern track I doubt we see winds that strong here. The rain may be something though so am all set up to be socked indoors for the next several days.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely two eyewalls now. It's clear from both recon and radar. The question now is, how quickly does this replacement take? Does this system maintain two eyewalls until landfall? Or does the cycle complete? I would expect that if the replacement cycle finishes sooner rather than later, additional intensification will take place. Judging by the flight-level winds, the outer eyewall already has the stronger winds, which makes me think this might finish fairly soon.

agreed. the outer eyewall has already clearly taken over. but as we have seen before that inner eyewall can sometimes maintain for quite a long time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Definitely two eyewalls now. It's clear from both recon and radar. The question now is, how quickly does this replacement take? Does this system maintain two eyewalls until landfall? Or does the cycle complete? I would expect that if the replacement cycle finishes sooner rather than later, additional intensification will take place. Judging by the flight-level winds, the outer eyewall already has the stronger winds, which makes me think this might finish fairly soon.

Doesnt look like it has stopped intensifying throughout