ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

It looks like an EWRC to me according to the latest recon pass... two wind peaks both at the surface and flight level.
http://i.imgur.com/cVZFlHk.png

I agree, you can clearly see a stronger second wind maxima.

[txwatcher91]

That doesnt present to me like an EWRC is occurring...looks more like the eye is clearing out

You can see it pretty clearly on radar. The 2nd eyewall is trying to become dominant.

looks almost finished. Even during the EWRC, we aw near explosive intensifictaion

Right now, the 3km NAM is looking quite good

Yes, it has done quite well in forecasting the intensity of this storm, if you compensate for the fact it typically overdoes things a little bit. Sub 920 seems easily attainable if the EWRC is wrapping up...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I remember Matthew's inner eyewall not letting go as the outer eyewall developed as the storm neared Cape Canaveral. Wondering if that'll be the case here.

[forecasterjack]

Absolutely crazy to see this much intensification during an EWRC. Would love to hear the thoughts of some of the pros as to what's driving that

[newtotex]

Update from Victoria.... I am inland so will not evacuate mainly because I want to keep the roads less congested for people coming up the coast and I think I can handle hurricane force gusts in the structure I live (if we gusted to over 100 maybe things would get interesting but given the ewrc ongoing and more southern track I doubt we see winds that strong here. The rain may be something though so am all set up to be socked indoors for the next several days.

Good luck! I went through Ivan & Katrina inland and 100mph quick gusts during a thunderstorm is one thing, but, 100mph gusts for a couple of hours is another

[NDG]

So beautiful yet so destructive.

[SouthDadeFish]

Definitely two eyewalls now. It's clear from both recon and radar. The question now is, how quickly does this replacement take? Does this system maintain two eyewalls until landfall? Or does the cycle complete? I would expect that if the replacement cycle finishes sooner rather than later, additional intensification will take place. Judging by the flight-level winds, the outer eyewall already has the stronger winds, which makes me think this might finish fairly soon.

Doesnt look like it has stopped intensifying throughout

Well yes, the pressure has continued to drop, which is impressive. I was referring to the wind speeds though. Due to conservation of angular momentum, if the radius of max wind increases, the max wind speeds will likely drop. But if this outer radius can then contract, winds should increase again. I should have been more clear, sorry.

[MississippiWx]

Definitely two eyewalls now. It's clear from both recon and radar. The question now is, how quickly does this replacement take? Does this system maintain two eyewalls until landfall? Or does the cycle complete? I would expect that if the replacement cycle finishes sooner rather than later, additional intensification will take place. Judging by the flight-level winds, the outer eyewall already has the stronger winds, which makes me think this might finish fairly soon.

Doesnt look like it has stopped intensifying throughout

This is whats amazing me.

[gboudx]

Apologies if this has already been posted by Jeff Lindner, but hopefully no one who needs to read this, is still here to read it:

This is focused to those individuals in the mandatory evacuation areas of:

Calhoun, Refugio, Aransas, San Patricio, Nueces, Jackson, and Matagorda Counties

I have been to your lunch meetings and presented at your conferences, many of you have been on this mailing list for years and have come to trust what I say and the forecast produced.

This is “that storm”, this is “the storm” with only comparisons to Celia (1970) and Carla (1961) for your region. You face one of the most difficult decisions of your life, to stay or leave and for some the landfall of this hurricane will be a defining life moment broken into before and after Harvey. The reality is that some of you will lose everything you own in the next 24 hours, entire homes will be washed away and destroyed by the storm surge.

You must leave, you cannot be in the storm surge inundation zones when Harvey moves ashore…the sea water is going to rise 8-12 feet above the ground in some of these counties along with battering waves that will beat structures to collapse. The coastline will forever be changed in the next 24 hours. You must make the correct decision and complete your preparations immediately and move inland. I am pleading with you to evacuate those areas under mandatory evacuation orders.

Jeff

[ScottNAtlanta]

Definitely two eyewalls now. It's clear from both recon and radar. The question now is, how quickly does this replacement take? Does this system maintain two eyewalls until landfall? Or does the cycle complete? I would expect that if the replacement cycle finishes sooner rather than later, additional intensification will take place. Judging by the flight-level winds, the outer eyewall already has the stronger winds, which makes me think this might finish fairly soon.

Doesnt look like it has stopped intensifying throughout

Well yes, the pressure has continued to drop, which is impressive. I was referring to the wind speeds though. Due to conservation of angular momentum, if the radius of max wind increases, the max wind speeds will likely drop. But if this outer radius can then contract, winds should increase again. I should have been more clear, sorry.

Either way...an expanded wind field is not good news

[Michele B]

Just heard: Winds at 105 mph

VERY close to Cat 3 now

The last official advisory was at 110 mph.

Is it 113 to meet the threshold for Cat 3?

[southerngale]

Just heard: Winds at 105 mph

VERY close to Cat 3 now

The last official advisory was at 110 mph.

Is it 113 to meet the threshold for Cat 3?

111 mph

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
900 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...9 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...

A buoy located about 40 miles east of South Padre Island has
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph with a gust to 47 mph.


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 95.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[forecasterjack]

Eye really starting to clear out on GOES16 visible https://weather.us/satellite/921-w-267- ... .html#play

[Michele B]

Update from Victoria.... I am inland so will not evacuate mainly because I want to keep the roads less congested for people coming up the coast and I think I can handle hurricane force gusts in the structure I live (if we gusted to over 100 maybe things would get interesting but given the ewrc ongoing and more southern track I doubt we see winds that strong here. The rain may be something though so am all set up to be socked indoors for the next several days.

Good luck! I went through Ivan & Katrina inland and 100mph quick gusts during a thunderstorm is one thing, but, 100mph gusts for a couple of hours is another

YUP! That's what it's like to be at "ground zero" in a hurricane!

And the wind HOWLS! It's surreal.

[NDG]

Saved webcam video from Padre Island, that's a very angry GOM, water is reaching the sand dunes.

[MGC]

Typically with a EWRC the wind field expands. Recon reports a new 28 mile wide eye is forming. How long if at all will the inner eye stay intact. Lots of questions and uncertainty with Harvey, track and intensity wise. Need to keep an eye on the Radar and see if the outer wind maxima starts to contract.

Some have questioned about the aftermath. It will be miserable. After Katrina, no power for 3 weeks. It got very hot after the hurricane like upper 90s. We didn't have water or gas for months. So many trees had got uprooted that all the underground utilities were destroyed. We had to go up to our in-laws to take a shower, they had a well. We used bottled water to cook and flush toilets. The absolute worst part was the stench. How many of you have been around dead stuff decomposing in 90 degree heat? It was bad, very bad......MGC

[Skogebo]

I'm in Northwest San Antonio and prepared to be off the road until Tuesday. I live in a neighborhood still under construction so I hope the winds don't get too high here as we would have a lot of construction site stuff that could fly around. My son works for HEB and works today but it sounds like the shelves are pretty bare. I am deeply concerned however about people not taking this seriously. I have seen multiple friends post on Facebook about this like people are over reacting and saying things like "ooooh, it's gonna rain" and "why are people acting like it's the apocalypse". A friend of mine asked why people are freaking out over a little rain. I think they forget that a lot of people here came here after they lost everything in Katrina. They know what can happen. I hope everyone stays safe and can find a safe place to stay until this is over. Pray for us and our neighbors to the south.

Also, I learn a lot about these storms every year reading what you all post. Thank you for that.

Mandy Skogebo
San Antonio

[Ntxw]

HIgh end cat 2, cat 3, cat 4 it doesn't matter. It's going to be destruction along the mid and lower Texas coast. Prayers to those in its path. God forbid, if you are staying God Bless you.

[txwatcher91]

It looks like the outer eyewall may be starting to slowly contract. If this completes in the next 4-6 hours it will have a window of 6-12 hours to strengthen prior to landfall.