ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

ERC,

apologies for doubting those folks who thought they saw it.

13:53z

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Update from Victoria.... I am inland so will not evacuate mainly because I want to keep the roads less congested for people coming up the coast and I think I can handle hurricane force gusts in the structure I live (if we gusted to over 100 maybe things would get interesting but given the ewrc ongoing and more southern track I doubt we see winds that strong here. The rain may be something though so am all set up to be socked indoors for the next several days.

Good luck! I went through Ivan & Katrina inland and 100mph quick gusts during a thunderstorm is one thing, but, 100mph gusts for a couple of hours is another

And some places will see upto the years full average in rainfall from this storm.
http://www.rssweather.com/climate/Texas ... 20Christi/

[tolakram]

1min refresh loop

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=962.5&y=957.5&z=2&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[dukeblue219]

HIgh end cat 2, cat 3, cat 4 it doesn't matter. It's going to be destruction along the mid and lower Texas coast.

This cannot be emphasized enough. A 110mph hurricane or a 140mph hurricane that comes and goes doesn't make that much difference to the average *inland* resident. Those peak winds are rarely recorded inland or away from the eyewall. A system that can blow 75mph for days and drop 25"+ of rain is probably more deadly to a wider region. The ground will become soft and at that point a weakened tree can easily fall from a 50mph gust.

Even if you think your house can withstand whatever winds this system has at landfall, and you're out of the storm surge zone, the misery factor will be high for days on end. People who could have left will drown, be electrocuted, get hit by a tree, or have heart attacks. The 99.9%+ who survive the storm will still have no electricity, possibly no clean water, and no emergency services for days in the Texas heat.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Whether or not the EWRC completes quickly will, IMO, decide whether this landfalls as an extremely dangerous CAT 3, or an extremely dangerous CAT 4. My point is, either way, this storm is the real deal.,

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Aric Dunn]

The outer eyewall is now nearly a solid ring of high reflectivity. if it can continue to be intense it will choke off the inner eye much faster.

this pass from recon will tell us if the outer eye has contracted from the last pass. of it's a mile or 2 smaller than this could deepen rather fast..

[Michele B]

I'm in Northwest San Antonio and prepared to be off the road until Tuesday. I live in a neighborhood still under construction so I hope the winds don't get too high here as we would have a lot of construction site stuff that could fly around. My son works for HEB and works today but it sounds like the shelves are pretty bare. I am deeply concerned however about people not taking this seriously. I have seen multiple friends post on Facebook about this like people are over reacting and saying things like "ooooh, it's gonna rain" and "why are people acting like it's the apocalypse". A friend of mine asked why people are freaking out over a little rain. I think they forget that a lot of people here came here after they lost everything in Katrina. They know what can happen. I hope everyone stays safe and can find a safe place to stay until this is over. Pray for us and our neighbors to the south.

Also, I learn a lot about these storms every year reading what you all post. Thank you for that.

Mandy Skogebo
San Antonio

Are you boarding up to avoid flying debris crashing through your windows?

Usually, construction companies have to REMOVE debris in the face of an impending storm.

Can you call the construction company and see if they are going to do that? Or contact local authorities and see what they have to say.

Loose boards or other construction debris can do LOTS of damage.

[cycloneye]

Saved webcam video from Padre Island, that's a very angry GOM, water is reaching the sand dunes.

Do you have the link to this web cam?

[vortex100]

Satellite is now showing Harvey's eye starting to open up as intensification continues.

[WeatherGuesser]

HIgh end cat 2, cat 3, cat 4 it doesn't matter. It's going to be destruction along the mid and lower Texas coast.

One thing I see a lot of people missing. These usually pass over and move on in a day or so. This one looks like it might sit and spin and grind and move back over some areas in a fairly limited area of movement for a couple of days before it moves on. It's going to be like being caught in a blender or meat grinder for an extended period.

[ROCK]

sure looks cat 3 ish with that small eye...just hope it gets on the coast before backing out...

[TheProfessor]

The last few frames of Harvey is something you'd see in your textbooks

[newtotex]

HIgh end cat 2, cat 3, cat 4 it doesn't matter. It's going to be destruction along the mid and lower Texas coast.

One thing I see a lot of people missing. These usually pass over and move on in a day or so. This one looks like it might sit and spin and grind and move back over some areas in a fairly limited area of movement for a couple of days before it moves on. It's going to be like being caught in a blender or meat grinder for an extended period.

Kind of like the Jarrell tornado. There is a huge difference between a fast moving F5 and a slow moving one. It's the same with hurricanes

[tarheelprogrammer]

Sure does look like a cat 3 now, at the very least. NHC should upgrade it soon I would think so. Just my opinion though.

[artist]

Those staying in surge zones with mandatory evacuations, be sure to write your name and emergency contacts on your arm in permanent marker. Also have an axe ready, if needed.

[gfsperpendicular]

How much longer do we have until landfall? If Harvey hits land in the middle of the ERC, will the effects be lessened? Or has the damage already been done, when the wind field expanded?

[Frank P]

here is a link I am viewing

http://www.beachcamsusa.com/tx/south-pa ... orth-beach

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm not sure where the Site Admins live, but I just heard something that I need to ask one in the TX area about in a PM. It may be kind of serious too.

[tailgater]

#3406 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:15 am

sure looks cat 3 ish with that small eye...just hope it gets on the coast before backing out...


Sure hope you are well prepared buddy and I'll be watching for your post to see what is needed in the aftermath. Stay safe bro.

[Pearl River]

Do you guys think it will do the crawl? In other words, get close to the coast and bounce up the coast a bit.