ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Steve]

What kind of pressures are we looking at as it moves toward Tx/La border? I am an hour West of Cameron, La.

Joe B has a second landfall of a 2 or 3 on where you are on Wednesday. He had a 3/4 hit north of Corpus Christi and then a near inland loop reemerging Sunday into the Gulf, strengthening and coming up.

Seems in line with current modeling. Will it happen?

?

[tolakram]

What kind of pressures are we looking at as it moves toward Tx/La border? I am an hour West of Cameron, La.

Good question, anything from a tropical storm to a major depending on the model. Too far out to know for sure at the moment. You need to watch for IF it comes back over water and how quickly it organizes.

[sphelps8681]

What kind of pressures are we looking at as it moves toward Tx/La border? I am an hour West of Cameron, La.

Joe B has a second landfall of a 2 or 3 on where you are on Wednesday. He had a 3/4 hit north of Corpus Christi and then a near inland loop reemerging Sunday into the Gulf, strengthening and coming up.

Seems in line with current modeling. Will it happen?

Are you saying the possibility of a Cat 2 or 3 could come up and make landfall were I am? Holy crap.

?

[Frank P]

HMON at H126 06Z takes it well inland then makes a big ass loop, and goes farther out in the Gulf than any other model to date...

at this rate florida will be on the table in 10 days...

Hard to know what is going to happen 6-7 days out, just gonna watch like everyone else

[tolakram]

Let's stick to models here please. I want to carefully say that until it gets closer avoid the hype. You still have time to watch and see what happens.

[forecasterjack]

Overnight high res ECMWF doesn't waste much time over land before it's back in the Gulf intensifying for landfall #2... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

[gatorcane]

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/diabaticpv/status/901097030646476800

[rockyman]

12z GFS is running.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82512&fh=6

[Portastorm]

The 12z NAM ... geezus ... it buries us in Austin with rain.

[hd44]

gfs poor initialization

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS has Harvey deepening over water @ H84

[Tireman4]

The 12z NAM ... geezus ... it buries us in Austin with rain.

If only that were snow Porta.... back to the NAM...

[HurricaneBrain]

Stalling and deepening over water @ H90

[jdjaguar]

12z GFS is running.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82512&fh=6

Almost 5 days? wow...serious flooding issues for the entire region.

[La Breeze]

What kind of pressures are we looking at as it moves toward Tx/La border? I am an hour West of Cameron, La.

Good question, anything from a tropical storm to a major depending on the model. Too far out to know for sure at the moment. You need to watch for IF it comes back over water and how quickly it organizes.

And how far out into the Gulf and for how long.

[La Breeze]

GFS has Harvey deepening over water @ H84

Where would Harvey be at that time frame?

[La Breeze]

Overnight high res ECMWF doesn't waste much time over land before it's back in the Gulf intensifying for landfall #2... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

Interesting graphic - not liking it since I live in SW LA.

[forecasterjack]

GFS has Harvey deepening over water @ H84

Where would Harvey be at that time frame?

Check it out. 12Z GFS coming in now: https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 1100z.html

[forecasterjack]

Overnight high res ECMWF doesn't waste much time over land before it's back in the Gulf intensifying for landfall #2... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1200z.html

Interesting graphic - not liking it since I live in SW LA.

Yeah, definitely keep a close eye on this one. Could very well be headed for you. Sensitive steering pattern though so nothing's guaranteed past today's landfall/stall