ATL: HARVEY - Models

[mcheer23]

12z GFS really just spins near Central TX.

[Nederlander]

Wow GFS not wanting to move Harvey much at all on this run. I don't understand how the trough has little to no effect on Harvey in this run. Either going to be a big winner or a big loser..

[forecasterjack]

12Z GFS makes landfall just E of Corpus Christi at 11PM CDT tonight. Ignore the pressure, it's way off https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 0400z.html

[Wx_Warrior]

Stalling over Central Texas at 174H

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian bring this into S Louisiana moving NE with the trough

[forecasterjack]

GFS has the storm over the exact same locations (within 100mi) for an entire week. Yikes. https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 1500z.html

[tolakram]

GFS run, now back and trapped with dissipation over TX.

[forecasterjack]

12Z GFS's rainfall total forecast. Absolute disaster for the entire SE quadrant of Texas from Austin to SA to Corpus to Houston. Yikes. https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 2100z.html

[tolakram]

Euro 12Z init

[ROCK]

lets see if it makes the coast on this run ...

[forecasterjack]

Awaiting the 12Z ECMWF run. Should begin to roll in about 10 minutes https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 1800z.html

[Steve]

Not that it means anything, but the Intellicast future Radar Product has the eye almost on land just at about Rockport, TX around 5:30 tonight. That's 4+ hours from now. If it's right at all, and who knows with radar derived products, the eye will be on land fully by 1:50am. So essentially it's a several hour process if it's right. I'd give it about a 20% chance of being fairly close and about a 2% chance for the eye to take that long. Port Lavaca looks to get the eyewall pretty bad without the relief of the eye itself in this depiction.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap. ... ayers=0039

[tolakram]

Euro is 955MB at landfall (Weatherbell)

[tolakram]

24h and 30h position no movement.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF weakens the storm on landfall. 952 -> 960mb 4PM CDT ->7PM CDT. Hope there's some truth to that https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/texas/sea-level-pressure/20170826-0000z.html

[HurricaneBrain]

Second landfall, if there is one, should also be weaker this run with Harvey further inland @ 48H

[tarheelprogrammer]

Second landfall, if there is one, should also be weaker this run with Harvey further inland @ 48H

ECMWF trended toward the other models slowly.

[tolakram]

Much further inland, last 12Z run had this on the coast.

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF has the storm offshore until at least 1 AM CDT... 12 hours plenty of time for stuff to happen https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/aransas/sea-level-pressure/20170826-0600z.html

[JPmia]

Not that it means anything, but the Intellicast future Radar Product has the eye almost on land just at about Rockport, TX around 5:30 tonight. That's 4+ hours from now. If it's right at all, and who knows with radar derived products, the eye will be on land fully by 1:50am. So essentially it's a several hour process if it's right. I'd give it about a 20% chance of being fairly close and about a 2% chance for the eye to take that long. Port Lavaca looks to get the eyewall pretty bad without the relief of the eye itself in this depiction.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap. ... ayers=0039

I've been thinking Rockport is in the landfall zone per models and NHC tracks.