ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3681 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:06 pm

Looks like 944mb <- flight level
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3682 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:06 pm

The eye is improving...Might get a wind increase...


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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3683 Postby sponger » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:07 pm

I cannot fathom what 30 plus inches of rain will look like. We got 14 for Jeanne over 4 days and it was a mess. Far worse than I have seen before or since.
Last edited by sponger on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3684 Postby smithtim » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:07 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:You guys may remember me from last years chasing of Hurricane Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville on the A1A.

Had 120mph winds on my nose for hours.

Heading tonight to where Harvey's eye will pass between Victoria and Corpus.

Have done this many many times.

I'll give live reports to Storm2k again.


Yes we do... as someone evacuated & has multiple properties on that barrier island where Matthew touched I was very grateful for your updates. So I thank you in advance for what you're doing out there as I know many Texans will be very grateful for your info!!!

Stay safe out there! Hope you find a good parking garage as I expect you will experience quite stronger than last year...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3685 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:08 pm

From first pass of NOAA plane.

107 kt Flight Level, 88 kt SFMR, 944mb.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3686 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:08 pm

88 SFMR doesn't yet justify going to Cat 3.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3687 Postby CryHavoc » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:09 pm

tolakram wrote:Looks like 944mb <- flight level


Oooo I might be 1 mb off on strength and dead on on winds. Woo! :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3688 Postby Callista » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:09 pm

If it just sits there and beats up on Texas for a while, it may not need to be particularly powerful to do a lot of damage. All that flooding can damage buildings beyond repair even if Harvey's winds won't be enough to knock them over. In that case, we would be looking at a high cost in terms of money, but not so high in terms of lives. Personally, I'd be a lot happier if it were moving a bit quicker and more likely to clear out sooner before it dumps too much rain or drags too much of the ocean onto Texas.
Last edited by Callista on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3689 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:09 pm

saved radar loop

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3690 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:09 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:88 SFMR doesn't yet justify going to Cat 3.


blend of flight and SFMR does from this plane and last plane.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3691 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:11 pm

This may just be an Ike 2.0 and have all the effects of a major hurricane but come o-so-close but not enough.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3692 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:11 pm

IR is somewhat warm on satellite...Oranges and reds...No black IR...


Like someone said last night...Probably due to dry air stumbles...
Last edited by Sanibel on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3693 Postby bg1 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:11 pm

tolakram wrote:saved radar loop

[img]http://i.imgur.com/dy3XXZc.gif


Wow, you can see the inner eyewall just give up in that last frame, unlike with Matthew.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3694 Postby LearnedHat » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:11 pm

sponger wrote:I cannot fathom what 30 plus inches of rain will look like. We got 14 for Jeanne over 4 days and it was a mess.


would need to be 72" or more to be able to fathom it
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3695 Postby forecasterjack » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:12 pm

Lots of lightning moving ashore in those spiral bands to the east of the storm. Cool lightning tool: https://weather.us/lightning/texas/20170825-1705z.html you can zoom into a county and then click one of the strike icons to see more info like strike's street level location and power: https://weather.us/lightning/matagorda/20170825-1700z-201708251658413000015301.html tornadoes are also a threat in the outer bands.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3696 Postby Langinbang187 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:12 pm

I really thought he'd be pushing cat 4 at this point if I'm being honest. Kind of surprised.

& Yes, 839 was indeed a typo. :lol:
Last edited by Langinbang187 on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3697 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:14 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3698 Postby Callista » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:14 pm

Maybe we'll get lucky and it'll fizzle out a bit. Fingers crossed. I like my powerful hurricanes making landfall somewhere nice and unhabited, and Harvey doesn't seem to be too obliging in that regard.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3699 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:15 pm

Langinbang187 wrote:I really thought he'd be pushing cat 4 at this point if I'm being honest. Kind of surprised.


It's certainly one of the most visually impressive and deepest Category 2 storms I've seen. The peak surface winds have just stuck around 90 knots or so. Doesn't mean it's not a killer obviously, but interesting nonetheless.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3700 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:88 SFMR doesn't yet justify going to Cat 3.


blend of flight and SFMR does from this plane and last plane.


90% of 107 is 96 knots. 96+88/2=92 knots.
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