ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like 944mb <- flight level
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
The eye is improving...Might get a wind increase...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
I cannot fathom what 30 plus inches of rain will look like. We got 14 for Jeanne over 4 days and it was a mess. Far worse than I have seen before or since.
Last edited by sponger on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Rail Dawg wrote:You guys may remember me from last years chasing of Hurricane Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville on the A1A.
Had 120mph winds on my nose for hours.
Heading tonight to where Harvey's eye will pass between Victoria and Corpus.
Have done this many many times.
I'll give live reports to Storm2k again.
Yes we do... as someone evacuated & has multiple properties on that barrier island where Matthew touched I was very grateful for your updates. So I thank you in advance for what you're doing out there as I know many Texans will be very grateful for your info!!!
Stay safe out there! Hope you find a good parking garage as I expect you will experience quite stronger than last year...
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
From first pass of NOAA plane.
107 kt Flight Level, 88 kt SFMR, 944mb.
107 kt Flight Level, 88 kt SFMR, 944mb.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
tolakram wrote:Looks like 944mb <- flight level
Oooo I might be 1 mb off on strength and dead on on winds. Woo!

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
If it just sits there and beats up on Texas for a while, it may not need to be particularly powerful to do a lot of damage. All that flooding can damage buildings beyond repair even if Harvey's winds won't be enough to knock them over. In that case, we would be looking at a high cost in terms of money, but not so high in terms of lives. Personally, I'd be a lot happier if it were moving a bit quicker and more likely to clear out sooner before it dumps too much rain or drags too much of the ocean onto Texas.
Last edited by Callista on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
saved radar loop


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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:88 SFMR doesn't yet justify going to Cat 3.
blend of flight and SFMR does from this plane and last plane.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
This may just be an Ike 2.0 and have all the effects of a major hurricane but come o-so-close but not enough.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
IR is somewhat warm on satellite...Oranges and reds...No black IR...
Like someone said last night...Probably due to dry air stumbles...
Like someone said last night...Probably due to dry air stumbles...
Last edited by Sanibel on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
tolakram wrote:saved radar loop
[img]http://i.imgur.com/dy3XXZc.gif
Wow, you can see the inner eyewall just give up in that last frame, unlike with Matthew.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:I cannot fathom what 30 plus inches of rain will look like. We got 14 for Jeanne over 4 days and it was a mess.
would need to be 72" or more to be able to fathom it
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Lots of lightning moving ashore in those spiral bands to the east of the storm. Cool lightning tool: https://weather.us/lightning/texas/20170825-1705z.html you can zoom into a county and then click one of the strike icons to see more info like strike's street level location and power: https://weather.us/lightning/matagorda/20170825-1700z-201708251658413000015301.html tornadoes are also a threat in the outer bands.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
I really thought he'd be pushing cat 4 at this point if I'm being honest. Kind of surprised.
& Yes, 839 was indeed a typo.
& Yes, 839 was indeed a typo.

Last edited by Langinbang187 on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Old GOES-E IR view, you can see eye is not quite sorted out yet.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-95&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-95&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Maybe we'll get lucky and it'll fizzle out a bit. Fingers crossed. I like my powerful hurricanes making landfall somewhere nice and unhabited, and Harvey doesn't seem to be too obliging in that regard.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Langinbang187 wrote:I really thought he'd be pushing cat 4 at this point if I'm being honest. Kind of surprised.
It's certainly one of the most visually impressive and deepest Category 2 storms I've seen. The peak surface winds have just stuck around 90 knots or so. Doesn't mean it's not a killer obviously, but interesting nonetheless.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:88 SFMR doesn't yet justify going to Cat 3.
blend of flight and SFMR does from this plane and last plane.
90% of 107 is 96 knots. 96+88/2=92 knots.
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