ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3701 Postby CryHavoc » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:16 pm

Langinbang187 wrote:I really thought he'd be pushing cat 4 at this point if I'm being honest. Kind of surprised.

& Yes, 839 was indeed a typo. :lol:


839 would be some "The Day After Tomorrow" type stuff. Haha.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3702 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:16 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:88 SFMR doesn't yet justify going to Cat 3.


blend of flight and SFMR does from this plane and last plane.


90% of 107 is 96 knots. 96+88/2=92 knots.


Which would mean it has weakened some, correct?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3703 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:18 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
90% of 107 is 96 knots. 96+88/2=92 knots.


Which would mean it has weakened some, correct?


Perhaps, but given the unsolvable problem of undersampling, I'd think twice before lowering the winds.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3704 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:18 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
blend of flight and SFMR does from this plane and last plane.


90% of 107 is 96 knots. 96+88/2=92 knots.


Which would mean it has weakened some, correct?


No it hasn't weakened at all. In fact pressure continues to fall.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3705 Postby WxGuy1 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:18 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:88 SFMR doesn't yet justify going to Cat 3.


88 kts (101 mph) is solidly in Cat 2 (83-95 kts). The NE part probably is a little stronger than the N part, but recon data indicate Harvey is still a cat 2 hurricane. The min central pressure is getting pretty low for "only" ~88 kt max winds, but there's quite a bit of variability in terms of the pressure-wind relation in hurricanes. See this nice plot by @splillo on Twitter (note that pressure has fallen, so shift the start down about one grid box)... Hurricanes with similar minimum central pressures have had winds anywhere from Cat 1 to Cat 5 :
Image

Harvey is smaller (at least in terms of area of >64 kt winds) than Ike was. It still seems that the main impact from Harvey for most people will be the widespread flooding that will occur.
Last edited by WxGuy1 on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3706 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:88 SFMR doesn't yet justify going to Cat 3.


blend of flight and SFMR does from this plane and last plane.


90% of 107 is 96 knots. 96+88/2=92 knots.


and the previous plane last pass was 115kt FL. NE quad. this pass currently was not right front..
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3707 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:20 pm

Given the surface winds seem lower this pass than earlier I don't think Harvey will make Cat 2. In fact the models yesterday seemed to indicate some weakening in the 12 hours or so before landfall so that's likely begun now.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3708 Postby J_J99 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:23 pm

Hammy wrote:Given the surface winds seem lower this pass than earlier I don't think Harvey will make Cat 2. In fact the models yesterday seemed to indicate some weakening in the 12 hours or so before landfall so that's likely begun now.

I fully disagree.... its lower compared to last time because they are in the NW Quadrant NOT the NE Quadrant..... I am very interested in seeing the NE Qudrant winds.

NW Quadrant winds already make a case for Cat 3 without SFMR with 90% of 107 kts flight level wind.....

But I think NE Quadrant will confirm we most likely (in my opinion) have a Cat 3
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3709 Postby stephen23 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:23 pm

Hammy wrote:Given the surface winds seem lower this pass than earlier I don't think Harvey will make Cat 2. In fact the models yesterday seemed to indicate some weakening in the 12 hours or so before landfall so that's likely begun now.

Has been a Cat 2 since yesterday
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3710 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:24 pm

Hammy wrote:Given the surface winds seem lower this pass than earlier I don't think Harvey will make Cat 2. In fact the models yesterday seemed to indicate some weakening in the 12 hours or so before landfall so that's likely begun now.


You mean Cat 3? The fact the Pressure continues to fall doesn't seem to indicate that's weakening at all. The NorthEast Quad is the strongest which hasn't been sampled yet this mission.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3711 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:24 pm

Zoomed in satellite loop.

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3712 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:24 pm

I think the current sharpening and slight contraction of that outer eye might indicate one last 5 to 10mph push but I might be wrong...



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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3713 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:24 pm

All indications are that 95 kt remains reasonable for the intensity. The SFMR tends to be +/- 5 kt per pass, and the FL winds solidly support such. Nothing supports a major yet though.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3714 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:25 pm

At this rate I hope it is a cat 2 at landfall. If two of the costliest storms on record are "only cat 2s" at landfall, maybe people will stop with this absurd fascination of "major hurricanes".
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3715 Postby gfsperpendicular » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:26 pm

NDG wrote:Zoomed in satellite loop.


Inner eyewall really refiring in the last frame there.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3716 Postby CycloneGuru » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:28 pm

what kind of widespread flooding are we talking here exaclty? Im sure us smart people could invent or come up with some sort of 3D program that can take in any affect of the topography, climate and other things, along with the storm and its current data, and be able to show exaclty and where and when the flooding occurs.... am I on to something or nahhhhh?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3717 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:28 pm

IR loop of Harvey does show some slight cloud top warming but overall this is one formidable hurricane. :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3718 Postby PaulR » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:29 pm

Blinhart wrote:All they are talking about is Surge damage, they aren't talking about the real damage will be from the waves on top of that Surge. If this storm actually does have waves almost 40 feet tall you talking damage 4 stories higher above the surge.


Hi, All,

It's been a while since I've posted; I usually come here when a relative is in the area of a serious storm, or, a storm piques my interest for whatever reason. Even then I often do not post, as often I have little to add, unless I have a question. :)

In this case:

I may be wrong about this, but would not the wave height be from trough to crest (peak), with the "crest height" being the height above the "still water line" (which in this case the STL would be the surge level/height?)?

OTOH, if the waves in the open ocean are 40' from crest to trough, what kind of breakers can that generate?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3719 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:29 pm

Radar showing inner eyewall might finally have stopped producing deep convection. the new eyewall is becoming much more intense the last 15 minutes could be a sign of deepening as long as the inner remnants are fully cut off..
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Re: ATL: HARVEY: Observations,Web Cams, Local NWS Statements Texas / Louisiana

#3720 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:29 pm

Conditions are deteriorating quickly as far north as Bolivar Peninsula.

https://www.bolivarpeninsulatexas.com/W ... rise-Beach
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