ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
J_J99
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 68
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2016 9:43 pm
Location: Cincinnati, OH

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3721 Postby J_J99 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:30 pm

102 kts surface found in eyewall of Harvey at surface
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... e&latest=1
Major hurricane it seems...
3 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3380
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3722 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:30 pm

Dropsonde just pegged major hurricane winds at the surface. Probable upgrade at 2 PM.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5850
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3723 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:30 pm

MaineWeatherNut wrote:You mean Cat 3? The fact the Pressure continues to fall doesn't seem to indicate that's weakening at all. The NorthEast Quad is the strongest which hasn't been sampled yet this mission.


I mean Cat 3, yes. SFMR is lower than the previous pass and the pressure has not dropped any further.

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Given the surface winds seem lower this pass than earlier I don't think Harvey will make Cat 2. In fact the models yesterday seemed to indicate some weakening in the 12 hours or so before landfall so that's likely begun now.


It did last night as well (103kt) but they don't appear that they're taking those as the actual intensity.
Last edited by Hammy on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2426
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3724 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:32 pm

Hammy wrote: I mean Cat 3, yes. SFMR is lower than the previous pass and the pressure has not dropped any further.


Hammy wrote: It did last night as well (103kt) but they don't appear that they're taking those as the actual intensity.


Dropsonde just registered 102kts at the surface so this is a Cat3 at 2pm
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3725 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:33 pm

Eyewall looks to be open on the NW side...
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11637
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3726 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:33 pm

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 17:13Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 16:56:35Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°55'N 96°14'W (26.9167N 96.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 92 statute miles (148 km) to the SE (129°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,651m (8,698ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 88kts (~ 101.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the N (355°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 87° at 107kts (From the E at ~ 123.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,932m (9,619ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,299m (10,823ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the N (356°) from the flight level center at 16:52:54Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the S (179°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 250° at 17kts (From the WSW at 20mph)
0 likes   

hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 511
Age: 34
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3727 Postby hohnywx » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:33 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3728 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:34 pm

CycloneGuru wrote:what kind of widespread flooding are we talking here exaclty? Im sure us smart people could invent or come up with some sort of 3D program that can take in any affect of the topography, climate and other things, along with the storm and its current data, and be able to show exaclty and where and when the flooding occurs.... am I on to something or nahhhhh?


A simple 3D program run on a single computer would not have the power to take all those factors you mentioned into account. There are several meteorological, hydrological and oceanographical models that do exactly what you described, but they do need a lot of computing power to run and that needs to be done with supercomputers. The results are visually improved and used by agencies like the NHC to provide forecasts for the public.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2426
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3729 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:35 pm

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -337m (-1,106 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
963mb Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 24.7°C (76°F) 30° (from the NNE) 102 knots (117 mph)
925mb 352m (1,155 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 40° (from the NE) 113 knots (130 mph)
850mb 1,093m (3,586 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.7°C (69°F) 70° (from the ENE) 89 knots (102 mph)
700mb 2,763m (9,065 ft) 14.2°C (57.6°F) 12.3°C (54°F) 80° (from the E) 79 knots (91 mph)
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
La Sirena
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 307
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:02 pm
Location: Formerly of the Keys, back home in East TN

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3730 Postby La Sirena » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:37 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -337m (-1,106 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
963mb Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 24.7°C (76°F) 30° (from the NNE) 102 knots (117 mph)
925mb 352m (1,155 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 40° (from the NE) 113 knots (130 mph)
850mb 1,093m (3,586 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 20.7°C (69°F) 70° (from the ENE) 89 knots (102 mph)
700mb 2,763m (9,065 ft) 14.2°C (57.6°F) 12.3°C (54°F) 80° (from the E) 79 knots (91 mph)

That would put it at Cat 3....
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Hurricane Irma,Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Helene

WYNweather
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:14 pm

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3731 Postby WYNweather » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:38 pm

PaulR wrote:
Blinhart wrote:All they are talking about is Surge damage, they aren't talking about the real damage will be from the waves on top of that Surge. If this storm actually does have waves almost 40 feet tall you talking damage 4 stories higher above the surge.


Hi, All,

It's been a while since I've posted; I usually come here when a relative is in the area of a serious storm, or, a storm piques my interest for whatever reason. Even then I often do not post, as often I have little to add, unless I have a question. :)

In this case:

I may be wrong about this, but would not the wave height be from trough to crest (peak), with the "crest height" being the height above the "still water line" (which in this case the STL would be the surge level/height?)?

OTOH, if the waves in the open ocean are 40' from crest to trough, what kind of breakers can that generate?


Still-Water Line - The level of the sea surface if it were perfectly calm and flat.
Crest - The highest point on the wave above the still-water line.
Trough - The lowest point on the wave below the still-water line.
Wave Height - The vertical distance between crest and trough.
Wavelength - The horizontal distance between successive crests or troughs.
Wave Period - The time it takes for one complete wave to pass a particular point.
Wave Frequency - The number of waves that pass a particular point in a given time period.
Amplitude - One-half the wave height or the distance from either the crest or the trough to the still-water line.
Direction of Propagation - the direction in which a wave is travelling.
0 likes   

CycloneGuru

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3732 Postby CycloneGuru » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:38 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:
CycloneGuru wrote:what kind of widespread flooding are we talking here exaclty? Im sure us smart people could invent or come up with some sort of 3D program that can take in any affect of the topography, climate and other things, along with the storm and its current data, and be able to show exaclty and where and when the flooding occurs.... am I on to something or nahhhhh?


A simple 3D program run on a single computer would not have the power to take all those factors you mentioned into account. There are several meteorological, hydrological and oceanographical models that do exactly what you described, but they do need a lot of computing power to run and that needs to be done with supercomputers. The results are visually improved and used by agencies like the NHC to provide forecasts for the public.



I know that have several models that do those exact things, but why haven't they been able to create THAT super computer?
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20036
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3733 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:39 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Langinbang187

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3734 Postby Langinbang187 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:40 pm

Upgrade looks likely based on the data.
1 likes   

User avatar
ALhurricane
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 452
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2003 12:46 pm
Location: Daphne, AL

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3735 Postby ALhurricane » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:40 pm

Doppler velocities from CRP also really increasing. Looks like a Cat 3 now.
1 likes   

drewschmaltz
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:19 pm

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3736 Postby drewschmaltz » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:41 pm

The average annual precipitation - rainfall in Corpus Cristi: 31.7 inch
0 likes   
I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. PLEASE CONSULT SOMEONE WHO DOES. START WITH THE NHC. ALL POSTS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3737 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:42 pm

CycloneGuru wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:
CycloneGuru wrote:what kind of widespread flooding are we talking here exaclty? Im sure us smart people could invent or come up with some sort of 3D program that can take in any affect of the topography, climate and other things, along with the storm and its current data, and be able to show exaclty and where and when the flooding occurs.... am I on to something or nahhhhh?


A simple 3D program run on a single computer would not have the power to take all those factors you mentioned into account. There are several meteorological, hydrological and oceanographical models that do exactly what you described, but they do need a lot of computing power to run and that needs to be done with supercomputers. The results are visually improved and used by agencies like the NHC to provide forecasts for the public.


I know that have several models that do those exact things, but why haven't they been able to create THAT super computer?


I think that's the dream of every meteorologist. Being able to run a large-scale hi-res model with changeable parameters on the go on your laptop.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20036
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3738 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:44 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

WYNweather
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:14 pm

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3739 Postby WYNweather » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:44 pm

WYNweather wrote:
PaulR wrote:
Blinhart wrote:All they are talking about is Surge damage, they aren't talking about the real damage will be from the waves on top of that Surge. If this storm actually does have waves almost 40 feet tall you talking damage 4 stories higher above the surge.


Hi, All,

It's been a while since I've posted; I usually come here when a relative is in the area of a serious storm, or, a storm piques my interest for whatever reason. Even then I often do not post, as often I have little to add, unless I have a question. :)

In this case:

I may be wrong about this, but would not the wave height be from trough to crest (peak), with the "crest height" being the height above the "still water line" (which in this case the STL would be the surge level/height?)?

OTOH, if the waves in the open ocean are 40' from crest to trough, what kind of breakers can that generate?


Still-Water Line - The level of the sea surface if it were perfectly calm and flat.
Crest - The highest point on the wave above the still-water line.
Trough - The lowest point on the wave below the still-water line.
Wave Height - The vertical distance between crest and trough.
Wavelength - The horizontal distance between successive crests or troughs.
Wave Period - The time it takes for one complete wave to pass a particular point.
Wave Frequency - The number of waves that pass a particular point in a given time period.
Amplitude - One-half the wave height or the distance from either the crest or the trough to the still-water line.
Direction of Propagation - the direction in which a wave is travelling.



Found this

http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/edu/learn ... waves.html
0 likes   

CryHavoc
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 201
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 24, 2017 5:18 pm
Location: Bay Area CA

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3740 Postby CryHavoc » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:44 pm

CycloneGuru wrote:what kind of widespread flooding are we talking here exaclty? Im sure us smart people could invent or come up with some sort of 3D program that can take in any affect of the topography, climate and other things, along with the storm and its current data, and be able to show exaclty and where and when the flooding occurs.... am I on to something or nahhhhh?


It's an interesting idea, but in a situation like this, it's much safer to just say that "everything will be flooded". When you're talking about a mass loss of life, you need to ensure that people don't make the decision to stay or go based on an extrapolated model.

When we have this kind of destruction imminent, everything becomes secondary to loss of life.
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest