ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Despite the uptick, there are a couple of positives I see. First it's got a big envelope, but it's a fairly concentrated storm. Secondly, it's the wrong time of day for Harvey to peak. He's making a run for the coast now, and while it's pretty concentric and nasty in the outer center of circulation, it could be way worse. That doesn't mean to infer that it won't tighten or explode in a few hours at approach. That remains to be seen. Also lucky for the coast so far, it's a relatively weak and diffuse west side of the storm. That was the North side of Isaac in 2012. Not having those advance few inches of rain makes a giant difference when the winds get up to gale and beyond. However, it won't really matter because it's going to be destructive anyway. On the "bad" scale for first landfall, I'd give it a 7 to 7.5.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
CycloneGuru wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:CycloneGuru wrote:what kind of widespread flooding are we talking here exaclty? Im sure us smart people could invent or come up with some sort of 3D program that can take in any affect of the topography, climate and other things, along with the storm and its current data, and be able to show exaclty and where and when the flooding occurs.... am I on to something or nahhhhh?
A simple 3D program run on a single computer would not have the power to take all those factors you mentioned into account. There are several meteorological, hydrological and oceanographical models that do exactly what you described, but they do need a lot of computing power to run and that needs to be done with supercomputers. The results are visually improved and used by agencies like the NHC to provide forecasts for the public.
I know that have several models that do those exact things, but why haven't they been able to create THAT super computer?
What exactly are you looking for? The products exist that show flooding above ground level overlaid on a map. It's relatively easy to produce a map that shows what an even 12" of rain will do to a region, but it's not a trivial problem to forecast in advance how much rain will fall in each square meter and when it will happen.
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- ALhurricane
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
jaguars_22 wrote:Still calm in Victoria drizzle for past hours! We may not see as bad as some thought
No offense but that is foolish and short sighted. You're not even in round 1 yet. You're still in pregame. Be safe and don't let your guard down!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
jaguars_22 wrote:Still calm in Victoria drizzle for past hours! We may not see as bad as some thought
A majority of this storm is still in the Gulf? Landfall isn't expected for another 10 hours? Having hope is one thing but I wouldn't disregard this storm by any means for the next 12-24 hours.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
@iCyclone
12:40 pm. Aransas Pass. Now. "I backin' down," she sings. Feel like she's giving me a pep talk. #HARVEY
https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/901137943229812737
12:40 pm. Aransas Pass. Now. "I backin' down," she sings. Feel like she's giving me a pep talk. #HARVEY
https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/901137943229812737
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Someone posted that Victoria could only see 77 mph max wind ?? That was Claudette in 03. I don't think we will see cat 2 winds inland?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
jaguars_22 wrote:Someone posted that Victoria could only see 77 mph max wind ?? That was Claudette in 03. I don't think we will see cat 2 winds inland?
Sounds about right. But you'll probably get 20 to 30 inches of rain. The wind is not the primary threat where you live.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
jaguars_22 wrote:Someone posted that Victoria could only see 77 mph max wind ?? That was Claudette in 03. I don't think we will see cat 2 winds inland?
Don't make the mistake of assuming any of those forecasts are so precise. A landfalling hurricane will rarely have anything near its peak winds recorded inland. However, there's tons of variation from one location to the next. Maybe you'll see 50 max. Maybe you'll get a gust to 110. Don't fixate on those peak gust forecasts, and in any case, if you get 30" of rain that's going to be the killer.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
I'll admit, the way that this blew up yesterday, there was no way that I thought we would be sitting at a Cat 2 right now. I thought for sure it would be a high end Cat 3 or Cat 4. We know that most of the damage though is going to be with the flooding rain, but it will be interesting to see if once again, the US somehow escapes the landfall of a Major
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'll admit, the way that this blew up yesterday, there was no way that I thought we would be sitting at a Cat 2 right now. I thought for sure it would be a high end Cat 3 or Cat 4. We know that most of the damage though is going to be with the flooding rain, but it will be interesting to see if once again, the US somehow escapes the landfall of a Major
ERC stopped it forum continuing to blow up.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Steve wrote:Despite the uptick, there are a couple of positives I see. First it's got a big envelope, but it's a fairly concentrated storm. Secondly, it's the wrong time of day for Harvey to peak. He's making a run for the coast now, and while it's pretty concentric and nasty in the outer center of circulation, it could be way worse. That doesn't mean to infer that it won't tighten or explode in a few hours at approach. That remains to be seen. Also lucky for the coast so far, it's a relatively weak and diffuse west side of the storm. That was the North side of Isaac in 2012. Not having those advance few inches of rain makes a giant difference when the winds get up to gale and beyond. However, it won't really matter because it's going to be destructive anyway. On the "bad" scale for first landfall, I'd give it a 7 to 7.5.
What do you think far as 2nd landfall If any...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
I assume the NHC is waiting for more recon data before upgrading to a major? The dropsonde seemed to indicate cat 3 winds.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
Exalt wrote:jaguars_22 wrote:Still calm in Victoria drizzle for past hours! We may not see as bad as some thought
A majority of this storm is still in the Gulf? Landfall isn't expected for another 10 hours? Having hope is one thing but I wouldn't disregard this storm by any means for the next 12-24 hours.
Actually I wouldn't discount anything with Harvey till we are into midweek next week. I and others I have been talking with have noticed a definitely more Northerly component on radar and satellite. While that may bode well for CRP and SA and Victoria, if that trend continues it could bring a lot of essential refineries, etc., including the South Texas Nuclear facility into more play for damages. Everything I am seeing on here and other places tells me we should have a CAT 3 at the next advisory. Can't Harvey just do a "Donny" or whoever it was and just go poof when he gets to land??


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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'll admit, the way that this blew up yesterday, there was no way that I thought we would be sitting at a Cat 2 right now. I thought for sure it would be a high end Cat 3 or Cat 4. We know that most of the damage though is going to be with the flooding rain, but it will be interesting to see if once again, the US somehow escapes the landfall of a Major
And yet it won't matter at all if this is a cat 2 or a cat 3. This ridiculous focus on maximum winds that 0.0000001% of the impacted area will feel needs to die.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
PaulR wrote:Blinhart wrote:All they are talking about is Surge damage, they aren't talking about the real damage will be from the waves on top of that Surge. If this storm actually does have waves almost 40 feet tall you talking damage 4 stories higher above the surge.
Hi, All,
It's been a while since I've posted; I usually come here when a relative is in the area of a serious storm, or, a storm piques my interest for whatever reason. Even then I often do not post, as often I have little to add, unless I have a question.![]()
In this case:
I may be wrong about this, but would not the wave height be from trough to crest (peak), with the "crest height" being the height above the "still water line" (which in this case the STL would be the surge level/height?)?
OTOH, if the waves in the open ocean are 40' from crest to trough, what kind of breakers can that generate?
Depends on the bottom. Texas shallow coast will eat up a lot of wave energy but 20 foot breakers are still possible at the coast.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
On the 20-30" of rain -- If you are in the area expecting this type of rain check the 100 year flood maps in your area right now and do an elevation comparison between the 100 year plain closest to your home and your home. If you live within 4 feet (vertically) of the 100 yr. plain I suspect there is a potential you could get water. This is likely to be one of those 500-1000 yr. type events in this area.
Last edited by weunice on Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
txwatcher91 wrote:I assume the NHC is waiting for more recon data before upgrading to a major? The dropsonde seemed to indicate cat 3 winds.
If there is an upgrade it will come with the next advisory unless there is something huge they need to communicate now.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
dukeblue219 wrote:CycloneGuru wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:
A simple 3D program run on a single computer would not have the power to take all those factors you mentioned into account. There are several meteorological, hydrological and oceanographical models that do exactly what you described, but they do need a lot of computing power to run and that needs to be done with supercomputers. The results are visually improved and used by agencies like the NHC to provide forecasts for the public.
I know that have several models that do those exact things, but why haven't they been able to create THAT super computer?
What exactly are you looking for? The products exist that show flooding above ground level overlaid on a map. It's relatively easy to produce a map that shows what an even 12" of rain will do to a region, but it's not a trivial problem to forecast in advance how much rain will fall in each square meter and when it will happen.
Is there something that does what your saying, along with a storm coming in, with all the parameters though?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:I'll admit, the way that this blew up yesterday, there was no way that I thought we would be sitting at a Cat 2 right now. I thought for sure it would be a high end Cat 3 or Cat 4. We know that most of the damage though is going to be with the flooding rain, but it will be interesting to see if once again, the US somehow escapes the landfall of a Major
And yet it won't matter at all if this is a cat 2 or a cat 3. This ridiculous focus on maximum winds that 0.0000001% of the impacted area will feel needs to die.
Windfield has expanded, but obviously wind isnt the major concern. I'm more concerned about the pressure. If it continues to drop the storm surge will be way stronger than whatever the winds are.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion
CycloneGuru wrote:Is there something that does what your saying, along with a storm coming in, with all the parameters though?
Like this one for storm surge http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153146.shtml?inundation? (zoomable)
What parameters are you looking for?
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